Lockout Emits Wintry Chill : Spring training: It could mean economic disaster for some Sun Belt towns, businesses dependent on camps.

While white-shirted executives sit in stale meeting rooms and argue over methods to make ballplayers millionaires, the thoughts of a grocer in Dunedin, Fla., and a hotel operator in Mesa, Ariz., are elsewhere. They are more concerned with the economic impact of a spring training lockout that could keep them from realizing their economic dreams.

Barring a late settlement, baseball’s spring training camps will not open next week. And that translates to a loss of income for many businesses that bank on the six-week spring training period.

Contrary to recent published reports, however, Florida officials are not estimating a $300-million loss to the state’s economy if there is a lockout.

That figure represents the financial influx spring training added to the state’s economy in 1987, according to a study. Officials agree there will be a financial impact, but are uncertain how bad it will be.

Of the 26 major league teams, 18 train in Florida. Still, Floridians boast their state has more to offer tourists than spring baseball. They hope that revenue normally generated by spring training will be diverted into other activities.

“We have 37 million visitors a year in Florida, and a good third of them come through in February and March,” said Ron Safford, director of sports promotion for the state.

“For the sports enthusiast, even though spring training may not occur, there is plenty down here to do and see, and it may actually open some eyes to the value of some of these other sports. We are trying to look on the bright side of this.”

Studies indicate that although 63% of Florida’s tourists are influenced to visit the state because of spring training, only 7% of those who stay in hotels attend it.

Snowbirds, as those who head to warmer climates in the winter months are called by Arizona and Florida residents, make reservations months in advance for extended stays during Florida’s peak season of February and March.

A good example of that is in Vero Beach, where the Dodgers train. The Chamber of Commerce says hotels report solid bookings through March, and reservations are not contingent on spring training.

“In Vero Beach, $20-25 million is generated each spring training,” said J. B. Norton, executive vice president of the Vero Beach chamber of commerce.

“The loss to us if the Dodgers aren’t here is about $5 million. The tourists are going to be here anyway. The major loss is going to be in the rentals of homes and condos by the Dodger players, at the restaurants and car rental agencies. Also, there are many people who live in the state who love the Dodgers and drive over for the day.”

The Ocean Grill in Vero Beach expects to lose 30 to 50 dinners a night without spring training. The restaurant says the loss of business will be primarily Dodger personnel.

“I would say, and I have nothing to back this up, but about 15% of our winter visitors come to Vero Beach specifically for spring training,” Norton said. “We are a resort state, so people are going to be here anyway. The hotels were full in Port St. Lucie before the New York Mets moved there two years ago. And beginning the latter part of this month, it will be difficult to find a room.”

Dodger players who normally bring their families to Vero Beach might have a problem finding housing, should the lockout suddenly end. Dodgertown, the team’s spring training facility, houses players only.

The optimism, however, can’t override reality for many Florida businesses. The Days Inn in Vero Beach estimates a loss of $12,000 without spring training.

And in Dunedin, Fla., where the Toronto Blue Jays train, a new $2.5-million stadium will be ready March 2. But without the Blue Jays, the annual payment of $300,000 on the park will be tough for the city to make. Dunedin’s population is 35,000.

“We are not desperate, but it’s not good,” said Cecil Englebert, who was instrumental in bringing the Blue Jays to Dunedin. “The tourists are still going to be here, but they are going to spend money somewhere else in the state and not locally. At Disney World or someplace. But not from the local grocer.”

There is less reason for optimism in Arizona. The state’s economy is suffering from a severe real estate slowdown and banking collapse. Property values have plunged, and foreclosures are widespread.

Arizona counts on spring training to generate nearly $160 million. Although studies show a relatively small group of tourists visit Florida specifically for spring training, baseball is the primary draw for tourists at most southern Arizona sites at this time of year.

Of the seven Arizona cities that play host to major league teams, only three are bona fide vacation resorts--Scottsdale, Phoenix and Tucson. Rarely do people plan to vacation in Mesa, Yuma, Tempe or Chandler.

But camp operators in at least two cities, Mesa and Tempe, have reportedly taken out lockout insurance policies with Lloyd’s of London. And it is believed that Chandler and Scottsdale have also taken out policies, but camp operators would not confirm it.

Sources say that the HoHoKam organization, which runs the Chicago Cubs’ camp in Mesa, has bought a policy that would cover payments on a recent $400,000 improvement of the stadium. They said that the policy also will cover basic operating expenses and be paid on a pro-rated basis during any lockout.

But there is no insurance for the Mesa economy. Besides the Cubs, the Angels and Milwaukee Brewers stay in Mesa hotels. The Brewers play their games in nearby Chandler, and the Angels begin spring training in Mesa and then move their camp to Palm Springs in mid-March.

Studies indicate that the Cubs alone add $37.5 million to the Mesa economy, and the Angels generate another $15.5. Combined, the teams spend nearly $2 million.

“We count on March to get us through the rest of the year, so I would say it would be quite disastrous if there is no spring training,” said Deidra Draper, general manager of the Mazona Motor Hotel, where the Cubs stay.

“Tours from Chicago have already expressed concern in sending their deposits, and the first tour is not scheduled to arrive until March 3, so if they cancel 72 hours in advance we will issue refunds. I would say we would lose about $150,000 if there is no spring training.”

Also hard hit will be Mesa’s Boys and Girls Club, whose concession business at three parks accounted for $500,000, or half of its annual operating income last season.

And many of Arizona’s charities, which derive income from ballpark concessions and parking, would suffer.

“I guess I have a vacation now,” said Rick (the Peanut Man) Kaminski, who has worked as a vendor for the Boys and Girls Club for three years.

“We get 25 cents for each item we sell, so individually I will lose about $2,500 to $3,000 for the one-month period when the games are played.”

Cub announcers Steve Stone and Harry Caray are co-owners of restaurants in Mesa, about five minutes from the Cubs’ ballpark, and in Scottsdale. Stone anticipates a major plunge in business in Mesa and a loss of about 25% in Scottsdale.

“The hotels in Scottsdale are booked because people have to make their reservations in advance, regardless,” Stone said.

“But if there is no spring training, will the people still come? They might. Will they go to the same haunts they would have gone to if the baseball players were here? I doubt it.”

Officials in Palm Springs, where the Angels spend the last two weeks of spring training, estimate the team generates about $3 million for the city. But Palm Springs officials look at spring training as merely one of many tourist attractions.

Florida, Arizona and Palm Springs also stand to lose in a way that can’t be measured in dollars.

Said Florida’s Safford: “We know for a fact that folks in Boston, when they are snowbound in their apartment or they come home and have that warm cup of cocoa and sit down in front of the evening news, and they see film footage from Florida of their team--people in short sleeves in Florida participating outdoors in warm weather--they know that spring is coming. And in a month, their team is coming up with a new season, a clean record, a chance to win the pennant, they say, ‘This is the year for us!’

“That warm sense they get is the best public relations you can ever have for a state, and that will be somewhat lost if we don’t have spring training. That’s our major loss.”

Baseball lore has it that long ago, Dodger management, in an effort to determine the impact the team’s presence had on Vero Beach, decided to conduct a study.

They paid their ballplayers in $2 bills, then waited to see where the bills turned up. Soon, the story goes, every merchant in town had registers overflowing with $2 bills.

That’s not likely to happen this year.