And the Winner Is . . . : Yes, it’s that time of the year when our fearless forecaster of Grammy glory again puts his reputation on the line

T he Grammys embrace rock.

That’s the usual headline on stories about how the Grammy nominations have gotten hipper in recent years. Among the acclaimed rock acts who have been nominated since the mid-’80s for album and/or record of the year honors: Bruce Springsteen, Prince, Peter Gabriel, David Bowie and Tracy Chapman.

The Grammys snub rock.

That’s the usual headline on stories about how Grammy voters, in choosing the winners, continue to favor top-selling pop attractions over adventurous rock artists. None of the rockers cited above made it past the nomination stage in the two most prestigious categories.

Two years ago, U2’s anthem “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For” lost the song of the year award to the old-fashioned movie theme “Somewhere Out There.” Last year, Chapman’s stark, socially conscious “Fast Car” lost the record of the year prize to Bobby McFerrin’s amiable but lightweight “Don’t Worry . . . Be Happy.”

It’s as if the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences--which awards the Grammys--has enlisted enough young, rock-conscious members to enable rock performers to be nominated in key categories, but not enough to enable them to win. In the end, the 7,000-member academy’s large contingent of older, tradition-minded voters usually prevails.

There have been exceptions. U2’s critically lauded “The Joshua Tree” won the Grammy for album of the year two years ago. But the prizes mostly go to mainstream pop favorites like Phil Collins and George Michael.

What does all this mean for this year’s awards, which will be presented on Wednesday in a nationally televised ceremony at the Shrine Auditorium?

Billy Joel, get that tux pressed.

Even though multiple nominees Don Henley and Fine Young Cannibals are the toast of the rock critical Establishment, we’re putting our money on Joel for record of the year and the Traveling Wilburys for best album.

Record of the Year

Fine Young Cannibals’ “She Drives Me Crazy” isn’t nominated in the song of the year category, which all but dooms its chances. Since 1972, every record of the year champ was at least nominated for best song.

Mike + the Mechanics’ classy, heartfelt “The Living Years” sounds like a winner, but the group has an identity problem--namely, it doesn’t have one. If a high-profile artist like Steve Winwood had recorded this song, it probably would win.

Bette Midler’s traditional ballad “Wind Beneath My Wings” is the kind of single that would have won hands-down in the early ‘70s, but no longer. As far back as 10 years ago, Barbra Streisand and Neil Diamond’s “You Don’t Bring Me Flowers”--the quintessential record in this genre--lost out to the Doobie Brothers.

Don Henley’s “The End of the Innocence” is a strong candidate, but how many Grammy voters can hum it in the shower? Don’t scoff: The hum factor probably explains why “Don’t Worry . . . Be Happy” won. Also, the single peaked at No. 8 on the weekly sales charts. Every record of the year winner since 1977 has reached the Top 3 except for Paul Simon’s “Graceland.”

That leaves Billy Joel’s “We Didn’t Start the Fire,” a time-capsule history of the past four decades of pop culture. We used to think voters would regard this as a clever but shallow and even irritating novelty record. Then we remembered “Don’t Worry . . . Be Happy.”

Joel it is, then, for the second time in this category (he won in 1978 for “Just the Way You Are”).

Album of the Year

Bonnie Raitt’s “Nick of Time,” which has yet to go platinum (1 million copies), is a l-o-n-g-shot. Every album of the year champ has been a multiplatinum seller since platinum awards were introduced in 1976.

Tom Petty, nominated as a member of the Traveling Wilburys and for his own “Full Moon Fever,” is the first artist to have two albums in the finals since Streisand in 1964. But people who like Petty will probably vote for the Wilburys, to enable his famous cronies to share the glory.

Fine Young Cannibals’ “The Raw & the Cooked” will be the clear favorite of the academy’s under-30 voters. Both of them.

Again, Henley’s “The End of the Innocence” is a strong contender. But the title track is its main calling card, and if that won’t win, why should the album?

That leaves “Traveling Wilburys, Vol. 1,” a widely admired collaboration by five celebrated rock veterans--Bob Dylan, George Harrison, Petty, Jeff Lynne and the late Roy Orbison. This album has the broadest potential base of support--from pop and rock listeners to country and adult contemporary adherents--of any of the nominees.

Song of the Year

This award traditionally favors compositions that have the potential to become standards--i.e. romantic ballads. That hurts the chances of both “We Didn’t Start the Fire” (written by Joel) and “The End of the Innocence” (Henley and Bruce Hornsby). “The Living Years” (Mike Rutherford and B. A. Robertson) will probably finish somewhere in the middle, with the race coming down to the Linda Ronstadt-Aaron Neville smash “Don’t Know Much” (Barry Mann, Cynthia Weil and Tom Snow) and “Wind Beneath My Wings” (Larry Henley and Jeff Silbar).

The well-liked Mann and Weil won this award two years ago for the Ronstadt-James Ingram smash “Somewhere Out There.” But this time they’re outmatched. “Wind” is the year’s most obvious standard, and the likely winner.

Though Janet Jackson was shut out in the big categories, she’s the front-runner in four other contests. That would make her the year’s biggest multiple winner. And in one of those races--best long-form music video--she’s going head-to-head with older brother and rival Michael Jackson.

That’s the real drama in this year’s Grammys.

Here are the likely winners in other key races:

BEST NEW ARTIST: Jazzie B’s critically lauded British soul ensemble Soul II Soul will edge out critically panned mega-sellers Milli Vanilli.

POP MALE: Joel is very strong, but how can voters bypass Orbison, one of the classic pop vocalists of all time? Is it a sympathy vote? No. It’s a final chance for the academy to rectify past wrongs whereby Orbison never won in the pop field.

POP FEMALE: Midler won in 1980 for “The Rose” and she’ll win again. (Unless enough last-minute voters went to “Stella” screenings.)

POP DUO/GROUP: Duets often win in this category, and Ronstadt and Aaron Neville are both highly respected.

ROCK MALE: It’s a toss-up between Petty and Henley. Since Petty has never won a Grammy, he has the edge. (That makes three No. 2 finishes for Henley, who will go home knowing how the Denver Broncos feel.)

ROCK FEMALE: Bonnie Raitt’s album of the year nomination is the tip-off. She’ll beat Tina Turner, who has had a lock on this award since 1984.

ROCK DUO/GROUP: The Wilburys again. Fellow nominees the Rolling Stones have yet to win a Grammy (!), but this probably won’t be their year.

HARD ROCK: Controversial mega-sellers Guns N’ Roses define the category and will likely win, though Living Colour, which tore down the Berlin Wall of segregated rock and black playlists, will also have support.

METAL: Metallica, upset last year by the miscategorized Jethro Tull, will finally prevail.

R&B; MALE: In the year of Bobby Brown, who else could possibly win?

R&B; FEMALE: Anita Baker beat Janet Jackson three years ago. This is Jackson’s year to turn the tables.

R&B; DUO/GROUP: Soul II Soul wins Award II.

RAP: Tone Loc made the biggest splash, becoming the first black rapper to top the pop album chart. That makes his smash “Funky Cold Medina” a clear favorite.

COUNTRY MALE: Clint Black, country’s hottest newcomer since Randy Travis, should beat two-time winner Travis.

COUNTRY FEMALE: k.d. lang won last year for a duet with Orbison and should win this year on her own.

COUNTRY DUO/GROUP: In the absence of a strong alternative, the Judds are the favorites to win here for the fifth time in six years.

COUNTRY VOCAL COLLABORATION: How could the voters resist Hank Williams Jr.’s teaming with his late and legendary father Hank Williams on “There’s a Tear in My Beer”?

MUSIC VIDEO--SHORT FORM: Michael Jackson revealed a sense of humor about himself in “Leave Me Alone.” For that astonishment, he deserves a Grammy.

MUSIC VIDEO--LONG FORM: Michael Jackson’s nominated here too for “Moonwalker,” but will likely lose to sister Janet’s “Rhythm Nation.”

Grein tabbed 14 of 21 categories correctly last year. Done in by his prediction of a clean sweep for Tracy Chapman, he resolved not to read any rock criticism in the month leading up to Grammy voting.

* Herb Glass on classical Grammys. Page 59

* Zan Stewart on Grammys in jazz. Page 64