Wagers on Favorites to Place Makes Cents

“Slinky” is a standout wherever she goes, and that includes the Turf Club at Santa Anita Race Track. She’s a fashion model and is always dressed in the latest styles and wears a different hat each day. Slinky is a delight to talk with, particularly about the horses.

Slinky is no handicapper, but she loves the horses and the action.

She enjoys the track so much that she has devised a system she plays day after day when she isn’t working: She bets favorites to place.

Her system gives her at least 50% winners during the racing season. Because payoffs average only about $3.60 for every $2 bet, sometimes she comes out slightly ahead for the year and sometimes drops a couple of bucks. Either way, she figures it’s no big deal because of all the fun she has at the track. Her system is so easy to play that it enables her to socialize between races with friends.

Just before the race, Slinky will quickly scan the totalizator board for the favorite. Then she will walk to the betting windows and plunk down $2.

During the 50 racing days from Dec. 26, 1989, to Feb. 28 of the present Santa Anita season, Slinky once hit for eight winners, once had seven winners and 10 times came up with six winners. Although there was once a two-winner day, never has she been shut out. Her average is 4.6 wins a day.

The biggest price she collected to place on a favorite was on Feb. 10 in the seventh race when the nag won and paid $6.80. Here’s how the prerace odds stacked up to $1.

1. Triode, $10.20

2. Desert Prowler, 10.60

3. Big City Miss, 33.80

4. Super Journey, 6.90

5. Dreaming Bel, 18.40

6. Hail the Foxbabey, 6.40

7. Rambushka, 3.40

8. Black Stockings, 3.90

9. Sumthing Rare, 44.80

10. Dad’s Penelope, 37.20

11. Spectacular Face, 4.30

12. Forbidden Desire, 180.90

Clearly, the betting public couldn’t decide which pony to make the favorite. Although Rambushka was bet down to $3.40 to $1, Black Stockings and Spectacular Face also were in contention.

The 1 1/2-mile race on the turf for 4-year-olds and up, fillies and mares, began with Rambushka in the 10th spot. Rambushka ran eighth until the quarter-pole, moved up to fourth entering the stretch and charged past the leaders near the finish to win by three-quarters of a length.

Across the board, the nag paid $8.80, $6.80 and $4.60. Black Stockings finished last and Spectacular Face ended up seventh.

On the day Slinky won eight races, the first was her only loss when two long shots, Zlatni Jeanne and The Burn Card, came in first and second, respectively. After that race, she racked up nothing but winners. The results were as follows:

Second race Bold and High, $3

Third race Fast Discovery, 3.20

Fourth race Supper Time George, 3.80

Fifth race Ariosa, 3.80

Sixth race It’s All Relative, 2.60

Seventh race Over the Pole, 4.40

Eighth race Dancing Tribute, 3

Ninth race I Love Racing, 3

Slinky bet $18 for the day, and returns came to $26.80. Profit for the nine-race card was $8.80.

Although Slinky hesitates to bet a money management method to bolster her winnings, an example of how that would have helped occurred on Feb. 23 when, with four winners, she lost 40 cents on straight $2 betting.

If Slinky had used a simple $2-$4-$8-$16-$32 progression, returning to the original $2 bet after a win, she would have left the track with a $22 profit.

In the first race, the $2.20 to $1 favorite, Valhalla, ran second to a long shot, Windoon, which paid $84.40, in the six-furlong sprint. Place price was $4.60.

The second race was a losing effort, but the third, which called for a $4 bet to win, saw Lord’s Score winning by a neck in a six-furlong effort. Payoff fo r place was $3 and the return was $6. Progression players would have lost the fourth, betting $2; fifth, $4, and sixth, $8.

However, in the seventh, the crowd made Jungle Jaklin the shaky favorite in the 1 1/16-mile race. Jungle Jaklin went off at $5.30 to $1, paying $6.20 to place. Sixteen dollars bet on the horse brought back $33.60.

The eighth race saw the favorite, Isabella Ra, running second after a mile on the turf. The horse paid $3.80 to place. In the ninth, the favorite ran far back in the pack.

For the nine races, bets would have amounted to $42, payoffs hit $64 and profit was $22.

Slinky theorizes that playing favorites will give bettors a win percentage of from 30% to 33%. Thus, playing favorites to place has to raise that percentage to at least 45%.

However, what’s frustrating for Slinky is that even should she win a lot of races, she easily could end up losing for the day. This occurred on Feb. 4, when five favorites placed and Slinky ended up dropping $2.50. The payoffs were $3.80, $3.40, $2.10, $3.40 and $2.80.

Slinky finds that her bragging about her winners is the thrill she gets when playing the horses. So the more tickets she cashes, the more thrilling she finds the races.