COMMENTARY : Cubs Were Almost Fine in 1989, But What About 1990?

Chicago Cubs Manager Don Zimmer started the 1990 season with an admission about 1989. On the first day of spring training, Zimmer assembled his players in the clubhouse of HoHoKam Park and told them exactly what happened in the team’s woeful showing in the National League Championship Series against the San Francisco Giants.

“We didn’t play worth a darn, and everything I did turned to garbage,” Zimmer said.

Does the same fate await Chicago this year? The Cubs are virtually an unchanged team from the one that won 93 games. Will they be able to say the same about their luck?

Last year, a career 12-19 pitcher named Mike Bielecki provided 18 wins. Jerome Walton jumped from Double-A to hit .293. Dwight Smith started the year in Triple-A but wound up hitting .324 for the Cubs. Another Triple-A graduate, Les Lancaster, threw 30 1/3 consecutive scoreless innings for the Cubs on his way to a 1.36 ERA, the lowest among all major-league relievers. And all the while Zimmer managed with the nerve of a thief and the luck of a leprechaun.

The New York Mets had such a hard time fathoming that they lost to this club that one player said at the end of the season, “I can’t believe I’ll be watching Jeff Pico and Joe Girardi in the playoffs. Ugh!”

“Last year,” Zimmer said, “over 162 games, we were better than the Mets. We were the best team in the division. The best team won. This year, to me, the Mets should be favored to win. I would say the Mets have an edge because of the pitching they have.

“Most people are going to pick the Mets. Some are going to pick the Cardinals. But I think we have a pretty good division, and I wouldn’t rule out anybody, including Philadelphia. They could have some young kids develop the way we did last year.”

The Cubs won a title but little in the way of respect. They seem to like it this way. They came out of nowhere last year. They figure that’s a good place to start this year too.

“I haven’t seen anybody pick us again,” reliever Mitch Williams said. “They think last year was a fluke. But those experts who are saying we can’t win are the ones who picked us fifth last year.”

Chicago has not won back-to-back titles since it won three in a row from 1906 to ’08. The Cubs’ 1984 East title looks like an apparition now. Their 96-win season six years ago was preceded by 11 consecutive non-winning records and followed by seasons of 77, 70, 76 and 77 wins in the next four years.

There are reasons other than the ones provided by history that appear to be working against the Cubs. Their catcher, Damon Berryhill, has not recovered from rotator cuff surgery. He is not expected back until mid-May at the earliest.

Their third baseman is Luis Salazar, a journeyman who has played with a different club in each of the last four years. And 35-year-old Andre Dawson, who hit .252 last season and .105 in the playoffs, may not be ready for Opening Day because of problems with his right knee.

But the greatest concern about this team is its starting pitching. Although Bielecki, Greg Maddux and Rick Sutcliffe were 53-30 last year, the rest of the staff was 40-39--and that included 11 wins from Scott Sanderson, who signed with the Oakland Athletics.

What happens to the Cubs this year largely will depend on what happens in the 60 or so games that fall to their No. 4 and No. 5 starters.

“I have some candidates,” Zimmer said. “We just don’t know who the fourth and fifth starters are going to be out of that group. That’s our most important decision.”

One spot is likely to go to rookie Mike Harkey, who suffered shoulder and knee injuries last year while going 2-7 at Iowa.

The others being considered are Jose Nunez, who was acquired in a trade with Toronto; rookie Kevin Blankenship, Steve Wilson and Pico, who served primarily as relievers last year. The five candidates have a combined career record of 21-19 with a 4.04 ERA. Unless Wilson wins a spot, the rotation will be entirely right-handed.

“I think we have a pretty good club,” Zimmer said. “We have to find out who our four and five pitchers are. If the two guys we choose get the job done, then to me, we’re going to be a real good club.

“Now, you’ll ask me, ‘Is Jerome Walton going to hit .293 and is Dwight Smith going to hit .324 again? Is Mike Bielecki going to win 18 games?’ Who knows? Do you know? Neither do I.”