Baseball ’90 PREVIEW : ANALYSIS : A West Shootout for Dodgers, Padres; An East Breeze for Mets

Imagine.

Early evening. Oct. 4, 1990. San Diego’s Jack Murphy Stadium. A one-game playoff for the National League West championship.

Bottom of the ninth. Batting are the San Diego Padres, trailing by one run. With one out, Tony Gwynn lofts a double into to the left-field corner, and then steals third. Up steps Joe Carter.

The crowd of 55,000 is on its feet. Their screaming shakes the seats. Fights are breaking out in the bleachers. A fan painted blue drops from the stands into right field and runs toward Gwynn, but is tackled and handcuffed by two policemen.

There is such emotion, Carter must step out of the batter’s box to catch his breath.

Because the team in the field is the Dodgers.

They are tired and limping and can barely see straight, but they are there. Kirk Gibson, growling in right field, has just thrown a beer can back in the stands. Jay Howell is kicking the dirt in front of the mound, trying to conjure up one more good fastball.

He pitches. Carter swings. A fly ball to deep left field. Underneath the ball runs left fielder Chris Gwynn, a late-inning defensive replacement. Brother Tony Gwynn tags up at third.

Chris makes the catch. Tony dashes toward home. Chris throws the ball with such force, he falls to the ground. Tony runs so hard he loses his helmet.

Chris’ perfect throw reaches home plate at the same time as Tony, who slides as Mike Scioscia sweeps down with the tag . . .

Imagine. Because this the year it could happen.

The area that has furnished many of the players for baseball’s pennant races in recent years may finally have a party of its own. The Padres and the Dodgers. A six-month fight along 120 miles of interstate highway. And you thought the weekend traffic to San Diego was bad last summer.

The drama is built into the schedule. The 18 games between the two teams include the season’s first four games and last three.

The drama is built into the rivalry. San Diego fans hate Los Angeles. Los Angeles fans don’t even know where San Diego is, but their Dodgers dislike the Padres, mostly because in the last two seasons, the Padres have won 23 of their 36 games.

But more than anything, the drama is built into their rosters.

The Padres should win the division.

But the Dodgers, if they remain healthy, could also win the division.

What about the defending champion San Francisco Giants? Remember what happened to the Dodgers last season? A drop from first to fourth place here is not out of the question. Sure, they have baseball’s best player in Will Clark, and the best player with the worst work habits, Kevin Mitchell.

But oh, that pitching. When Kelly Downs went down with a shoulder injury recently, it meant the Giants’ rotation would include a kid named Russ Swan.

The team that could come closest to the Dodgers and Padres is the Cincinnati Reds. They have shed the bad feelings of the Pete Rose era and are having fun again under new manager Lou Pinella.

The Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros should bring up the rear, although not in the order you would expect. In fact, not only should the Braves not finish last for seemingly the first time since the birth of Ted Turner, they may finish as high as third. Nick Esasky at first base, Jim Presley at third, and baseball’s best young starting pitchers, like John Smoltz and Tom Glavine, could make a difference.

Finally, there are the Astros. This is a team whose third starter is a guy named Mark Portugal, whose fourth starter, Bill Gullickson, last pitched in Japan, and whose fifth starter, Jim Clancy, hasn’t been any good since he left Canada.

What about the National League East? Well, it’s there. But barring a massive earth shift, directionless Philadelphia is still in the East, and free-agent torn Montreal is still in the East. It will not be baseball’s best division.

We’ll go way out on a limb and say that the New York Mets will win it. Perhaps it’s because they have more good pitching than the rest of the division combined. When is the last time your favorite team was forced to send Bob Ojeda to the bullpen?

We’ll also go out on a limb and say that the managing of St. Louis’ Whitey Herzog could make the race close, even final-week close.

How will Don Zimmer find a way to bring the Cubs back to the division title? He won’t. He has no third baseman, Andre Dawson is still hurt, and after Mike Maddux his starting rotation is still suspect.

But at least he has a starting rotation. Montreal will go with the likes of Dennis Martinez, Oil Can Boyd and Zane Smith. Philadelphia will counter with Ken Howell, Bruce Ruffin and Terry Mulholland.

Then there is Pittsburgh. The Pirates are, in some respects, like the Dodgers. They could finish first, or not at all. They have a great outfield, but the rest of the team is either young or injury prone. And imagine a bullpen anchored by Bill Landrum and Ted Power.

Maybe imagining isn’t always a good thing.

Here’s how the division races shape up, in predicted order of finish:

THE WEST

* San Diego: If Jack McKeon’s team can win more than 10 games before July, they should be all right. For the last three seasons, they have been one of the league’s biggest first-half busts, and second-half surprises. Last year they were 42-46 before the All-Star break, and the National League’s best team afterward at 47-27, and all it earned them was second place.

Whatever they’ve been doing in spring training, it isn’t working, so perhaps this year’s shorter spring will help. A bigger help will be Joe Carter. The new center fielder will bat behind Jack Clark and keep him from getting intentionally walked a career-high 18 times like last year. In the last three years, nobody has matched Carter’s combination of 123 homers and 430 RBIs. And nobody can match the heart of a batting order consisting of Tony Gwynn, Clark and Carter.

Their biggest question mark will be relief pitching, as life after Cy Young winner Mark Davis consists of Craig Lefferts, Greg Harris, Mark Grant and a lot of crossed fingers.

* Dodgers: If they stay healthy, no NL lineup will have more power or experience. No starting pitching staff will have as many potential Cy Young Award winners. And no bullpen will have as many stoppers.

But if they break down, as players over 30 have a habit of doing, they’ll get no closer to the Padres than ESPN. Although most people point to the health of Kirk Gibson and Kal Daniels as being the key, perhaps two more important bodies belong to catcher Mike Scioscia and shortstop Alfredo Griffin.

Both play with more aches and pains than anyone knows.

* Cincinnati: The potential change in this lackluster team can be best illustrated by the No. 1 wish of virtually every West manager last season--that Pete Rose not be fired or suspended until his team was out of the pennant race.

“As long as he’s there,” said one manager, “we’ve got a chance.”

Under new boss Lou Pinella, expect Eric Davis to play more, which could mean an MVP season considering he is the only player in history with four consecutive years of fewer than 475 at-bats but more than 25 home runs. Expect starters Tom Browning and Jose Rijo to act like the veterans they are.

And expect the bullpen, mistreated under Rose, to end games without an opposing whimper. Led by Dibble and Myers, the Reds’ bullpen is so good, one of baseball’s most coveted pitchers is their setup man, Norm Charlton. Last year he struck out nine consecutive right-handers, the third longest streak in the past 15 years. Yet he recorded not one save.

* Atlanta: For once, there is more to this team than Dale Murphy. And just in time, because in the last couple of years, there wasn’t even Dale Murphy. After watching their slugger become baseball’s only player with a sub- .230 average in each of the last two years despite at least 502 at-bats, the Braves acquired first baseman Esasky and third baseman Presley, both of whom could hit enough homers to make you forget about their strikeouts.

To complement their new guys, the Braves kept a good young starting pitching staff intact that includes left-hander Tom Glavine, who has allowed just three homers to left-handed hitters in his two seasons.

* San Francisco: They have the league’s best player in Will Clark. Those with objections should note his .431 batting average last season against the league’s 10 ERA leaders. Or perhaps his .435 average with runners in scoring position and two outs.

But after Will, there are questions. Yes, even questions about returning most valuable player Kevin Mitchell, who led the major leagues in five power categories. He showed up at spring training late and overweight. The Giants’ other power hitter, Matt Williams, has a career average of .134 with two-out and runners on base, the lowest among all active non-pitchers. And their new acquisition, right fielder Kevin Bass, batted just .224 last year in late-inning pressure situations.

Beyond defending ERA champion Scott Garrelts and Rick Reuschel, the starting rotation is suspect.

* Houston: Count on Mike Scott to win 18 games and have an ERA around 3.00. Count on Glenn Davis to have a couple of three-homer games and a bunch of two-homer games. But after that, don’t count on much.

Craig Biggio is the major league’s fastest and most versatile catcher, but opponents were successful on 83 percent of steal attempts against him last year, highest in the majors. Bill Doran is injury prone at second base. Rafael Ramirez’s 30 errors led NL shortstops last season for a record-tying sixth time. Ken Caminiti is average at third base. The outfield is inexperienced, with rookie Eric Anthony, and erratic, with Gerald Young.

And don’t even talk about their starting pitching. Jim Clancy? Bill Gullickson?

THE EAST

* New York: So you have to travel to New York for a three-game series in August, and you know that top starters Dwight Gooden and Frank Viola are not scheduled to pitch. So you think you have a chance to leave with a win or two.

Right. After Gooden and Viola comes Ron Darling. Then Sid Fernandez. Then David Cone. And if one of those three gets hurt, the Mets can go into the bullpen and pull out Bob Ojeda, who in four years with the Mets is 44-34 with a 3.02 ERA.

Oh, so you still think you can knock one of those guys out? Then what are you going to do with reliever John Franco, acquired in the off-season from Cincinnati? His career ERA of 2.49 is the lowest among active pitchers with a minimum of 500 innings.

And we haven’t even mentioned Howard Johnson, Darryl Strawberry or Kevin McReynolds. Or that ex-Dodger, Mike Marshall.

* St. Louis: It’s a wonder the Dodgers, in search of a center fielder, never hooked up with the Cardinals. They’ve got two, maybe three. Look for Whitey Herzog to maneuver Milt Thompson, Willie McGee and Vince Coleman in center and left field so that not only are they productive, they aren’t asking every day to be traded.

Anchoring right field is Tom Brunansky, one of four players with 20 or more homers in each of the last eight seasons. His big bat goes well with first baseman Pedro Guerrero, who hit .405 with runners in scoring position last year, helping to account for his 117 RBIs.

John Tudor returns and will join Joe Magrane, Jose DeLeon, Bryn Smith and a healthy Greg Mathews on a potentially league-best staff. If Herzog can figure a way to work Ken Dayley, Scott Terry, John Costello and Frank DiPino into a decent bullpen, the Mets might have to share their arrogance.

* Chicago: Perhaps the Cubs could repeat their heroics of last year, if only they were the same team as last year. Top pitcher Rick Sutcliffe will start the season on the disabled list because of shoulder problems. Catcher Damon Berryhill is out until probably June with shoulder problems. Andre Dawson, recovering from knee surgery, may also miss the start of the season.

Their injuries could leave the team with Joe Girardi, .245 last season, as the catcher and Steve Wilson, Jose Nunez and Mike Harkey as starters. Among them they had a total of nine starts last season.

Dawson’s spot could be easier to fill. After all, when he was out for six weeks last year, the Cubs played 10 games over .500 thanks to Dwight Smith and Lloyd McClendon, who are both returning.

* Pittsburgh: By moving third baseman Bobby Bonilla to right field, where he has played decently this spring, the Pirates have formed one of baseball’s best-hitting outfields, with Bonilla, Andy Van Slyke and Barry Bonds.

Now, who are they going to move to the infield? At first base is Sid Bream, whose recovery from last season’s three knee surgeries has been so tenuous that he might not be the opening day starter. At second base is Jose Lind, who had more errors at Wrigley Field last year than Ryne Sandberg, 4-3. At shortstop is Jay Bell, who looked good in 78 games late last year but still must make people forget how he once committed 59 errors in a minor league season. And at third base will be a platoon of Wally Backman and Jeff King, neither of whom plays the position like a guy named Brooks, either Robinson or Hubie.

* Montreal: Good-bye, Mark Langston, Bryn Smith, Pascual Perez and Hubie Brooks. All departed the team last season via free agency, many with stipulations in their new contracts that they could never be forced to return. And with good reason. The Expos have become Oil Can Boyd, Zane Smith, Dave Martinez, uh, are we forgetting somebody here?

From last season’s pennant race until now, the Expos have been, quite simply, devastated.

The Expos have Tim Raines and Andres Galarraga and Tim Wallach. But it seems like they always have those three and it never does any good.

* Philadelphia: Here’s the good news. Starting shortstop Dickie Thon has been hit by just one pitch in 1,432 plate appearances since his beaning from Mike Torrez in 1984. He came back last season to hit 15 homers, more than his combined total of five previous seasons. His 60 RBIs tied the Cubs’ Shawon Dunston for best among NL shortstops.

Now for the other news. Their pitching rotation is the league’s worst, beginning with ace Ken Howell, who last season had 21 wild pitches, highest in the league in 23 years. The remaining four starters combined for 21 wins last season.

Their lineup has more holes than the freeway near Veterans’ Stadium. Catcher Darren Daulton hit .201 last season while throwing out just 28 percent of potential base stealers. Third baseman Charlie Hayes, who should become the Phillies’ first opening day third baseman other than Mike Schmidt in 17 years, had the most errors of any league rookie last year with 22. OK, so right fielder Von Hayes is great. But center fielder Len Dykstra admittedly quit at the end of last season because the team was so poor, and left fielder John Kruk’s play is as erratic as his weight.