BETTING THE SYSTEMS : ‘Music Man’ Plays on a Consensus Instrument

The “Music Man” marches to his own tune. Late at night he plays in a jazz band in a restaurant in Hollywood and in the morning he is a custodian for an office building in downtown Los Angeles.

Since he doesn’t require a lot of sleep, he goes to the track during the afternoon and mingles with his cronies, who discuss the horses and music while waiting between races.

If his friends should ask, the Music Man will tell them that he has been playing the horses for the past 30 years and has experimented with every system imaginable.

Also, he has followed the touts who sell their selections outside the tracks and has followed the various professional handicappers who select horses for the local newspapers.

As a result, he has discovered that neither the touts nor the newspaper handicappers really are winners. Some get hot at various times during a season, but overall they’re not much better at picking winners than, say, people who bet on favorites that win about 33% of the races.

But the Music Man never gives up. He is always seeking that one system that will make him rich and give him the life of luxury he has always sought.

As a result, after discarding 30 years worth of systems--some valid, some interesting, some legitimate, some laughable and some sheer lunacy--he has devised a method of playing the horses that has at least resulted in his winning more money than he has lost.

What the Music Man does is bet the top Consensus horse in the Los Angeles Times Sports section or in the Racing Form. In addition to betting the Consensus nag, he uses a money management system. To end up with a profit during the day’s nine-horse card, the Music Man maintains that he needs only one winner.

Once he achieves that winner, he leaves the track and goes home. If he feels extremely lucky and the winner comes early in the day, he might stick around and start his betting system over again. Most of the time, however, he’ll take his winnings and run.

On March 8, 1990, at Santa Anita, the Consensus in The Times came up with one winner. In the fifth race, a seven-furlong sprint for 4-year-olds and up, the lineup with odds to $1:

1--Gentleman’s Honor, $49

2--Sir Hon, 21.50

3--Pass Another Tab, 12

4--Lark’s Legacy, 3.10

5--Eratone, 2.70

6--Rumbo Seat, 3.50

7--Superbe King, 15.90

8--Go Steady Lad, 30.10

9--Do Right By Dudley, 11

10--Bold Batter Up, 47.50

11--Abbey B. Runner, 7.40

Lark’s Legacy, the Consensus top choice and second pick in the betting, broke from the No. 4 post position and immediately took the lead. By the half-mile pole, Lark’s Legacy was comfortably two lengths in front.

Going into the stretch, the horse held its two-length advantage but was being pushed by Rumbo Seat, the third choice in the betting. Despite a big move by Rumbo Seat, Lark’s Legacy held on to win by a head, paying $8.20.

The money progression system the Music Man likes to play over the nine races starts with $10 the first race. The second race, he bets $20; third, $30; fourth, $50; fifth, $80; sixth, $130; seventh, $210; eighth, $340, and ninth, $550.

If he loses all nine races, the Music Man is out $1,420 for the day. Admittedly, this kind of a loss would be disastrous. However, for those who can’t afford this kind of a loss, a $2 first bet in the same proportionate progression requires a total of only $284 for the day.

In any case, as it turned out, the Music Man received $328 for his $80 bet. Total bets for the five races amounted to $190 and profit at that point was a nifty $138.

Those who had used the system in The Times Consensus from March 4 to April 18 (32 racing days) this season at Santa Anita, would have ended up with at least one winner a day. The Consensus had one winner on six days, 19%; two winners on nine days, 28%; three winners on 12 days, 37%; four winners on four days, 13%, and five winners one day, 3%.

Surprisingly, despite the five winners The Times’ Consensus came up with March 22, 1990, it wasn’t the best card for money won, although it was a profitable day.

Here’s how the betting went. In the first race, Pop’s Ruling won a six-furlong sprint, almost wire-to-wire, by 3 1/2 lengths, paying $4.80 to win. The return on a $10 bet was $24, and profit after the first race was $14. System players would have lost the second race, another $10 bet, cutting the profit for the day to $4.

In the third, which called for a $20 wager, Flom, the heavy favorite, ran six furlongs, winning easily by 2 3/4 lengths, and paid $3.40. The payoff, $34, minus the $30 bet in the second and third races, resulted in a $4 gain. Profit for the day after the third race was $8.

Rainbank, another favorite, won the fourth race at 1 1/16 miles and paid $5.20. For the $10 bet, there was a $16 profit. Added to the totals for the day, bettors would have been ahead $24.

Another winner resulted in the fifth race, and profit jumped to $37. The sixth race was a $10 loser. In the seventh, a $20 wager on Sumthing Rare saw the horse run a mile wire-to-wire and win by 6 1/2 lengths. The nag paid $5.20.

After discounting the $30 bet on the sixth and seventh race, profit came to $22. For the day, bettors were ahead $49.

The eighth and ninth race were losers for system players. However, total winnings for the day came to $19.

After pressing the bills into his wallet, the Music Man turned to his friend and said: “Time to go home.”