‘Close to Losing’ War on Medfly, Expert Says : Infestation: A rash of recent finds means the state should continue malathion spraying beyond the May 9 cutoff, an adviser says.

One of the state’s scientific advisers in the battle to eradicate the Mediterranean fruit fly said Monday that he believes the campaign is on the verge of being lost and that plans to phase out pesticide spraying in early May may need to be scuttled.

Richard Rice, a UC Davis entomologist, said his pessimism was fueled by a succession of new fly discoveries in the last two weeks--well before the early summer explosion the Medfly campaign was anticipating--and by the announcement of an outbreak in Florida that could drain supplies of sterile flies needed to combat the pest.

“Obviously, what we are doing isn’t good enough,” said Rice, one of five entomologists serving on the state’s Medfly science advisory panel. “We’re getting real close to losing this sucker.”

Of the plan to convert to sterile flies as the principal weapon, Rice said: “I think we’ve reached a point where we don’t have enough steriles to pull this off.”

While the science advisers always have been skeptical of the state’s announced decision to phase out controversial malathion applications, Rice with his comments to The Times became the first to state outright that the May 9 deadline should not be met.

Millions of specially bred sterile Medflies are needed to combat each pocket of the Medfly infestation. The flies are intended to breed with their fertile counterparts, breaking the reproduction cycle.

Rice’s comments on the progress of the eradication campaign came as he and the four other members of the science advisory panel recommended Monday that malathion be sprayed one or two times over four new sectors of Los Angeles and San Bernardino counties to battle a Mediterranean fruit fly infestation that some of the experts contend is approaching crisis proportions.

The panel’s recommendations followed a rash of 11 Medfly discoveries over the last two weeks, stretching from Los Angeles’ Hancock Park neighborhood to as far away as Woodcrest in Riverside County. Seven of the Medflies were trapped in the last week alone, often just outside the boundaries of existing spray zones.

Panel Chairman Roy Cunningham said the advisers have proposed expanding the aerial malathion treatment zone by about 50 square miles, which would bring the total to about 480 square miles spread over four counties--the largest total spray zone yet in the 9-month-old infestation.

The proposed new spray zones include parts of Azusa, Cerritos, Glendora, Pomona and San Dimas in Los Angeles County, and Rancho Cucamonga and the city of San Bernardino in San Bernardino County. The panel recommended each area be sprayed as many as two times with malathion and then be treated with the release of sterile flies to hamper the pest from breeding.

The recommendations have been forwarded to state Department of Food and Agriculture Director Henry J. Voss. A decision from state officials is expected later this week.

Rice and some other advisers clearly were frustrated Monday. Contributing to their frustration was the announcement from Florida of an infestation that is expected to draw away millions of sterile flies from the California effort, making it difficult to release enough steriles to combat all corners of the infestation.

Sterile flies have been in short supply since the Southern California infestation began. The size of the infestation caught the producers of sterile flies off guard. Construction of more facilities to breed the steriles was completed after the first outbreak last August, which prompted state officials to confidently set a May 9 deadline for the end of spraying in existing infestation zones.

Agriculture officials, who have been increasingly at odds with the science panel, said Monday that they still should be able to phase out aerial spraying on most areas by May 9.

Voss originally estimated that the state would receive about 200 million sterile flies a week from breeding facilities in Hawaii by the first week in May. Last week, Isi Siddiqui, assistant director of the state Department of Food and Agriculture, said as many as 410 million sterile flies a week will be arriving by early May, including 60 million from a facility in Mexico.

How many sterile flies will actually be available by May is uncertain. Glenn Hinsdale, director of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s new rearing plant in Hawaii, said the facility has experienced delays because of the newness of the plant.

“We’re moving along as rapidly as we can. We’re off to a little slower start than expected,” he said. “It takes a while.”

E. Leon Spaugy, Los Angeles County Agricultural Commissioner, said he believes the new outbreaks in California and Florida, coupled with the possibility of production problems at two new breeding facilities in Hawaii, may push the available supplies close to the limit.

“I never said it was going to be easy,” Spaugy said. “It’s a serious situation, but I’m still of the opinion that if we can lay claim to the additional sterile flies, we can still get a handle on this.”

MEDFLY SPRAYING MAP: B2