BETTING THE SYSTEMS : ‘The Clown’ Bets Long Shots and Usually Wins

When Lucky Street came out of the pack and pounded to a 1 1/2-length lead in the stretch in the seven-furlong fourth race at Hollywood Park on opening day April 25, “The Clown” had a grin on his face that stretched from ear to ear.

“What a way to go!” he cried jubilantly to a woman standing next to him on the concrete in the Grandstand in front of the finish line as he reached into his pocket and pulled out a $2 win ticket. Then he turned toward the track building where the payoff windows are. The Clown had just won $128.40 for a $2 ticket. Even if he didn’t win another race, he figured he would come out way ahead for the day.

The Clown, now retired, actually worked for a circus. He is a tall man, just a shade over 6 feet, 3 inches, thin and seemingly sad when he isn’t smiling or laughing. He is at least 70, has white hair, wears an old gray suit.

The Clown, although he worked for many years before retiring, never was a headliner. His success as a clown, however, was better than average, and just good enough to keep him on the job and collect a weekly paycheck.

The Clown started betting on the races when he used to read the Racing Form just to pass the time between appearances before the audiences and call a bookie from the circus-office phone. At first, The Clown just stabbed, taking a long shot here and there, sometimes winning, mostly losing.

Today, however, after almost a lifetime of betting at different tracks around the country, The Clown has developed a system that enables him to either make a few bucks over a season or lose a few bucks. And that system, as he has always dreamed, involves betting on long shots.

What The Clown does is watch the totalizator board. When the favorite shows less than 2-1, The Clown will bet every horse in the race that’s 10-1 or over on the theory that the public is wrong about 70% of the races.

He believes that when a nag is bet down less than 2-1, it may be that it is a false favorite bolstered by the newspaper handicappers and tout sheets who only win at the most about 28% of their picks. Thus, the odds go up even higher on the long shots. Also, The Clown loves the high prices, because every payoff is more than $20. And, sometimes, like Lucky Street, returns are more than $100 for a $2 wager.

Here’s how he does it. Take the race that Lucky Street won. The totalizator board showed the following odds to $1.

1--Lark’s Legacy, $0.60

2--Lucky Street, 63.20

3--Bugarian, 27.10

4--Petronack, 38.90

5--Brave Courier, 75.20

6--Gypsy’s Prophecy, 5.90

7--Chief Kennedy, 13.00

8--Song And Verse, 32.20

9--Cash In Store, 6.00

10--Silver Surfer, 8.60

Since Lark’s Legacy, the favorite, was less than 2-1, The Clown bet $2 each on Lucky Street, Bugarian, Petronack, Brave Courier and Song And Verse, for a total investment of $10. When the horse won and paid $128.40, The Clown made $118.40 on the race. For the day, he bet five races, losing $24, and after deducting his losses from the $128.40, he ended up with a huge profit of $104.40.

Of course, The Clown doesn’t expect to get a $100 or higher payoff every day. For example, on May 10, 1990, at Hollywood Park, he skipped the first three races because no favorite was 2-1 or less. However, in the fourth, with the favorite, Glassware, at $1.30 to $1, The Clown bet seven other horses, putting out $14.

One of the nags, Ryan’s Grandmas, broke from the No. 11 post position to fourth place in this mile race and then fell back to sixth by the quarter pole. The nag moved up to fifth by the half-mile mark and took over third by the three-quarter pole. Entering the stretch, the horse ran second and took the lead about 15 yards from the finish to win by 2 1/2 lengths.

The mutual was $47.20 and The Clown was ahead $33.20 for the day. He skipped the fifth race but bet three horses in the sixth, which was a six-furlong sprint for maidens 3 years old and up.

One of The Clown’s horses, Rising Wine, started out in second place and remained in that spot until the stretch, where it moved up to challenge the leader. At the finish, after a tough drive, Rising Wine won by three-quarters of a length to pay $38.80, giving The Clown $32.80 to add to his $33.20 profit, for $66 in winnings.

In the seventh race, The Clown lost $4. Since no other race qualified for a bet, he left the track with $62 in winnings.

This year at Hollywood Park, The Clown so far is way ahead in wagering. For the first 12 days (April 25 through May 10) his total daily winnings amounted to $234.80, while losses came to $126.20, for a profit of $108.60. His winning percentage hit 19.6%, as he cashed in on 10 of the 51 races that his system qualified.

What proponents of the system like is that every win is a long shot. Others, however, find that skipping a race and simply watching the horses run around the track isn’t natural. It goes against the grain and the bettors’ law of nature. It’s sheer lunacy, they say. When you’re at the track, you have to bet. Otherwise why waste the time? There are other things to do.

Of course, The Clown knows better and is willing to wait. Over the years at the track, he has only bet about half of the races. Being realistic, he’s found that being patient has paid off. Naturally, he hasn’t won enough to purchase a Jaguar or a Mercedes-Benz or a Rolls-Royce or even a Cadillac. But he thinks he may be close. “Before you buy those kinds of cars, first you have to win gas money. You have to learn how to walk before you start running!” he says, grinning.