Some Hits but More Misses in ESPN’s Baseball Lineup : Television: The cable network loses money in first year of contract, though fulfilling summer need for high-profile, live programming.

As ESPN is scheduled to begin the second half of its inaugural season of Major League Baseball telecasts today, it admits to a pair of rookie errors--overestimating the games’ projected ratings and making poor choices for the Sunday night games.

For the first 84 telecasts, ESPN has averaged a 2 rating, reaching 1,122,000 homes. Advertisers reportedly had been promised a 3.8 rating.

The ratings shortfall has caused ESPN to give advertisers additional free commercial time, called make-goods, in order to reach the audience that had been promised. The amount of the make-goods has been estimated as high as $25 million.

“The ratings are not performing to the level we had hoped,” said Loren Matthews, ESPN’s senior vice president for programming. “However, they appear to be heading in the right direction. We expect the ratings to improve markedly in the second half of the season now that there are truly defined races in three of the four divisions and we face less significant sports competition.”

For Sunday night games, ESPN promised advertisers a 5 rating. Instead, the Sunday games are averaging a 3 rating, or about 1.7 million households. On Wednesdays, the projection was a 4 rating, with the actual rating coming in at 2.4, or 1,346,000 households.

For ESPN’s Tuesday and Friday doubleheaders, a 2.5 rating was hoped for. Instead, the Tuesday doubleheaders have drawn a 1.5 rating, or 842,000 homes. Friday’s first game is averaging a 1.5 rating and the second game a 1.7.

ESPN paid Major League Baseball $400 million for the rights to televise baseball over the next four years. The network planned on losing money on the deal, which it has. Officials declined to release figures but a spokesman termed the losses “still in the manageable stage.” He added that the network would approach a break-even point by the final year of the contract, and hoped to achieve profitability on a subsequent contract.

Another reason for adding baseball was the need for high-profile, live programming during the summer. ESPN was strong during the fall with NFL and college football and in the winter with college basketball. But in the summer months, ESPN filled its schedule mainly with taped sports programming, augmented by live auto racing, golf and tennis--sports that have a core of fans, but rarely draw large audiences.

Although the ratings have not reached the level promised to advertisers, ESPN says it is pleased with baseball nonetheless. The network’s ratings are up 67% compared to the same time periods a year ago. Baseball has also boosted the number of households that get ESPN by nearly 6 million from a year ago, to approximately 57 million, 62% of the national total, maintaining its status as cable’s largest network.

Unlike the Tuesday and Friday doubleheaders and the single games on Wednesdays, which are selected seven days in advance, ESPN chose its Sunday night games last November.

“I picked them off last year’s form, but I should have gone a little more on gut instinct than on the previous year’s performance,” said Matthews, an executive with the New York Mets from 1970 to 1979. “Next season, I might take a few more risks on the Sunday schedule.”

Matthews is already voicing concern over two of the final three Sunday telecasts. The Sept. 2 game matches the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals, currently the bottom two teams in the National League East. On Sept. 16, the Toronto Blue Jays face the Baltimore Orioles. Last season, these teams met for the American League East title on the final weekend of the season; but the Orioles have plummeted to fifth this year, nine games behind the Boston Red Sox.

“I was trying to catch lightning in a bottle two years in a row,” Matthews said.

Despite his admitted mistakes with the Sunday night telecasts, Matthews has made some choices for the weekday telecasts that have proven fortuitous. For June 29, he selected the no-hitters pitched by Oakland’s Dave Stewart and the Dodgers’ Fernando Valenzuela. Although most fans couldn’t see both no-hitters in their entirety because the Oakland contest was an alternate telecast, ESPN did broadcast the final inning of each game over its full network.

Matthews believes that ESPN’s ratings problems have been caused in part by the unexpected poor performances of several teams with heavy national followings, including the defending National League East champion Cubs, the Cardinals and the New York Yankees. In addition, several key free-agent signings by the California Angels and the Kansas City Royals raised off-season expectations of a three-team race in the American League West, but both have had disappointing seasons.

Conversely, the Chicago White Sox, who have been baseball’s biggest surprise by staying within a game of the defending World Champion Oakland A’s in the American League West, have yet to be a boon to the ratings.

“When a team comes out of the blue, it takes longer for people to believe that it is for real,” Matthews said. “You don’t see the positive impact like for someone with a more proven record.”

Various clauses in ESPN’s contract with Major League Baseball have also contributed to its ratings woes. The contract generally prohibits ESPN from telecasting games back to the home markets of the teams involved in the primary games.

ESPN is also forced to compete with as many as four other broadcast outlets for baseball fans. On Tuesdays and Fridays, when ESPN airs doubleheaders, there are often baseball telecasts on cable stations such as TBS, WGN and WWOR, and on local stations and regional cable networks.

ESPN does face less competition on Wednesdays and Sundays. No over-the-air stations may air games opposite ESPN on Wednesdays, although regional cable is permitted. Telecasts involving other teams are permitted on Sundays, but because few games are played Sunday evenings, ESPN has little competition on that night.