Huge Enrollment Jumps in Schools Foreseen for ‘90s

Huge enrollment increases in California public schools will continue at least until the end of this decade, the state Department of Finance has predicted.

New figures released Friday by the department’s population unit show that enrollment in kindergarten through 12th grade will grow from almost 5 million this fall to 6.8 million in the fall of 1999.

The increase this year over 1989 was 193,000 pupils, which is 10,000 more than the department was projecting last May and almost 40,000 more than was predicted a year ago.

These huge annual enrollment jumps are the underlying causes of problems such as overcrowded classes, the shaky financial condition faced by 20 to 30 school districts and a $5-billion backlog in unmet school construction needs.

The department’s population experts said the enrollment increases are due to a continuing rise in the state’s birthrate, which has been climbing since 1974, and to continued heavy increase of out-of-staters moving to California.

The highest projected percentage increase would be in Riverside County, where school enrollments are expected to increase by almost 107%--from 201,600 this year to 417,100 in 1999.

San Bernardino County is expecting a 91% increase in the next 10 years, San Diego County 55%, Santa Barbara County 49%, Orange County 44%, Los Angeles County 36% and Ventura County 30%.