NEWS ANALYSIS : GOP’s Shock in O.C. May Reflect Loss of Incentive : The only success story for the county’s Republican juggernaut was Pete Wilson’s squeaker over Dianne Feinstein. Returns from the party’s stronghold could not halt GOP disasters statewide.

There was more blowing through Orange County on Election Day than a strong Santa Ana wind. National political currents that experts are still trying to decipher also ripped through California’s Republican heartland.

The bulk of Orange County’s elected Republicans were returned to office Tuesday. But in the voting, there were also signs of an angry electorate and a Republican Party dazed by recent events.

Orange County’s Republican Party, the strongest in California, went into Tuesday’s election like a well-conditioned prizefighter. Its registration margin over Democrats was high, and it had more money and manpower to turn out its vote than ever in its history.

Like heavy artillery, those resources were aimed at two stated goals: generating winning margins for statewide GOP candidates and reelecting the only local Republican who was seriously threatened, Assemblyman Curt Pringle (R-Garden Grove).

But when the smoke cleared Wednesday morning, the only success story was Governor-elect Pete Wilson, who squeaked out a win over Democrat Dianne Feinstein.

Republicans had cited 200,000 votes as the minimum margin that Orange County needed to generate for any of their statewide candidates to offset Democratic strongholds in Los Angeles and Northern California. Wilson ended up beating Feinstein in Orange County by 172,979 ballots, short of the minimum goal but enough to carry the election in a low-turnout race.

Since Wilson’s victory margin in Orange County was nearly identical to that statewide, local Republican forces took credit once again for seating a GOP governor.

“I think overwhelmingly, it was a positive success story,” said Thomas Fuentes, chairman of the Orange County Republican Party. “We are just ecstatic about the achievements of the day.”

But if Orange County gets credit for electing Wilson, does it also have to live with blame for not generating enough votes to elect any of the other Republicans on the statewide ticket?

In many of the statewide races, Republicans were facing tough fights against better-funded incumbent Democrats.

But even Orange County’s native daughter, Newport Beach state Sen. Marian Bergeson, fell short of the necessary margin on her home turf. She beat Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy in the county by about 147,000 votes and lost statewide, 52% to 42%.

Costa Mesa Republican consultant Robert Nelson called Bergeson’s poor performance in Orange County “the biggest surprise” of the election.

Attorney general candidate Dan Lungren, running for an open seat, also could not clinch the election in Orange County. He beat Democrat Arlo Smith in Orange County by about 177,000 votes, but that race is still locked in a virtual tie. It is expected to be decided by about 500,000 absentee ballots still to be counted around the state, including about 50,000 in Orange County.

And the one Republican incumbent on the statewide slate, Treasurer Thomas Hayes, carried Orange County by only about 124,000 votes. He went on to lose to Democrat Kathleen Brown.

Even Wilson’s race showed that there was a vastly different evaluation of his candidacy by voters in Orange County than there was when he ran for reelection to the Senate in 1988. Just two years ago, Wilson carried the county by 342,350 votes, as he went on to beat Democrat McCarthy.

So what happened here? It’s certainly not the sign of a weakening Republican Party in Orange County. But it does show that even big machines have more trouble when the grade turns uphill.

Greg Haskin, executive director of the county GOP, said the party expects that it will exceed the $600,000 tab for get-out-the-vote activities that it spent for the 1988 presidential election. Add to that another unprecedented contribution to the county effort from state Republican coffers, said Dan Schnur, spokesman for the California Republican Party.

The money helped Republicans operate more than 40 campaign offices throughout the county, in contrast with just two for the Democrats.

So it was not for lack of trying that the turnout on Election Day was the lowest in more than a decade for a gubernatorial race. The county’s turnout of about 56% was a just bit higher than the statewide average of about 54%.

GOP consultant Nelson said he believes that the Orange County results stem from the same forces that are sweeping the country, particularly President Bush’s announcement in June that he would support a tax increase.

“It was a turnover in the ballgame,” Nelson said. “There’s no longer the moral imperative for Republicans to vote; the intellectual underpinning that makes people say, ‘Damn right I’m going to vote, and I’m going to vote Republican.’ ”

So Republicans lost an incentive to vote, and the party lost an issue to persuade moderate Democrats--who are plentiful in Orange County’s minority party--to cross over and vote with the GOP, Nelson said.

Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach) saw the same dynamics in the loss of Pringle’s 72nd Assembly District seat to Democrat Tom Umberg, becoming the first Republican to lose a county legislative seat in six years.

“It wasn’t all Pringle’s fault,” Ferguson said. “When George Bush said there is no difference between (the parties) now that communism is quiet, and I’m going to support taxes, there was nothing left for Pringle to stand on.”

In addition, there were signs that voter frustration--spawned by scandals and budget fiascoes in Washington and Sacramento--was alive and well in Orange County.

Pollster Gary Lawrence said Thursday at a Republican election analysis in Yorba Linda that the electorate was “cranky and even mean. America was not in a forgiving mood.”

One of the places it showed up was in the congressional races. Although all five of the congressmen who represent Orange County won reelection, all but one had a lower winning margin than in 1988.

“There was an alarming level of voter hostility,” state GOP spokesman Schnur said. “One, nobody voted. Two, those who voted did so in historic numbers for third-party candidates. Three, they massacred the proposition ballot. And four, the one (proposition) they did pass set limited terms for elected officials.

“Between those four factors, I think you’ll definitely agree, the voters of this state have crossed the line from apathy to out-and-out hostility.”