1st District Candidates Preparing to Fight an Absentee Ballot War

Despite its potential for making political history, candidates for Los Angeles County’s newly drawn 1st Supervisorial District expect the election will produce only a tiny voter turnout, and they have concentrated their early campaigns on persuading known supporters to file absentee ballots by mail.

The Jan. 22 special election seems certain to place on the five-member board the first Latino supervisor in more than 100 years, a seat that will represent 1.8 million residents in a predominantly Latino segment of the county. The four leading contenders in the nine-candidate field are Latinos.

Candidates and campaign experts estimate that only 60,000 to 70,000 of the more than 300,000 registered voters are likely to vote. In several recent one-issue elections statewide, turnout has been below 20% and absentee voting has accounted for up to 50% of the balloting.

“In a special election, it doesn’t go to the most popular candidate, but to whomever can manipulate the small voter turnout, period,” said Larry Sheingold, a Democratic campaign consultant and expert on mail-in voting strategies. “So you have to go after the absentees.”

Los Angeles City Councilwoman Gloria Molina’s volunteers already are delivering absentee ballot applications door-to-door to likely supporters. Precinct workers for state Sen. Art Torres (D-Los Angeles) are visiting neighborhoods to identify potential absentee voters. Sarah Flores plans to launch an absentee vote drive by mail later this week.

“Absentees are an incredible factor in this race,” said Eric Rose, campaign manager for Flores. “Every piece of mail people receive from us will have an absentee ballot application attached to it.”

The hunt for absentee voters requires some special strategy.

“You only want to get out absentee ballots to those who are going to vote for you, so it becomes a major organizational effort to find them, and some candidates will do better at that than others,” said Mark DiCamillo, managing editor of the California Poll.

According to Sheingold, if any candidate can identify 30,000 supporters, and can get half of them to vote absentee, “more than likely that will be enough for them to win.”

Residents not registered to vote in Los Angeles County have until Dec. 24 to do so. Those wishing to vote by absentee procedures must request mail-in ballots by Jan. 15. Absentee ballots must be delivered to a polling place or the county registrar by 8 p.m. Jan. 22.

Richard Martinez, a spokesman for the Southwest Voter Registration Project, said there is virtually no time to mount a traditional voter registration drive to bring in residents who have never voted in the past, adding:

“This is going to put all of them to the test on ingenuity and survivability.”

Molina last week began printing up her own absentee ballot applications to distribute to likely supporters, a tactic used successfully in other races in California. A campaign spokesman said Molina’s application forms were reviewed and approved by county officials.

Molina’s campaign consultant, Patricia Bond, said the councilwoman will capitalize on a large pool of volunteers, about 500 of whom who will be used for door-to-door delivery of absentee ballot applications during the race.

“We’ll stand right there on the doorstep while they fill out their (absentee application) form, and we’ll even turn it in for them,” Bond said. “When Gloria was elected to the City Council, we just killed the opposition in absentee votes, and with the incredible volunteer response we’ve had in the last two weeks, we’re planning to do it again.”

Campaign advisers to Flores and Torres said they were waiting for the registrar of voters to print up the official absentee voter applications before launching their absentee drives later this week.

Rose said Flores hopes to raise $400,000 to $500,000, and will spend “a sizable portion” of that on the absentee effort. He said direct mailings will be sent to voters who cast ballots in most elections in the last decade and are thus more likely to vote in a special election.

Dee Dee Myers, communications director for the Torres campaign, said they have launched an aggressive walking campaign to identify supporters willing to vote absentee. Campaign workers will return to those neighborhoods with absentee applications as soon as the county releases its forms.

“Our precinct campaign is rolling now and . . . there will be a mailer with an absentee application attached,” Myers said. “As Democrats, we have learned in special elections in (Southern California) that an aggressive absentee program to get your votes in before the election is a good formula for success.”

Dina Huniu, campaign manager for state Sen. Charles Calderon, (D-Whittier) said Calderon’s consultants are considering an absentee drive as part of their strategy but are not ready to discuss details.