BREAKDOWN OF THE TRADE TALKS : U.S. Consumers Will Probably Feel Little Effect, at Least Right Away

The breakdown in the 107-nation trade talks isn’t expected to have much immediate effect on American consumers, even if customs duties eventually rise, economists said Friday.

“Without general resolution of the issues, things will remain pretty much as they are,” said Roland Artle, a professor at the University of California who specializes in international economics.

Other economists predicted a slight increase in prices and modest job losses.

“It is like a penny on a pair of sneakers,” said Ken Goldstein, an economist with the Conference Board, a New York-based business association. “It has an impact, but it is small compared to other things going on in the economy.”

Goldstein said the crisis in the Middle East, for example, has had a far more noticeable and immediate impact on the consumer than the talks on the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade.

If there is no new trade pact, some jobs may be lost--particularly in businesses involved in shipping, storing or financing agricultural trade. “Not millions and millions, but a couple thousand,” Goldstein said. “It is not enough to move the unemployment statistics.”

The four-year discussions over modifications in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade collapsed on Friday, but there were signs that talks may resume. The trade talks ended when European nations, led by France, failed to lower agricultural subsidies to a level acceptable to the United States and its supporters.

Many economists said the short-term impact on consumers will take the form of lost opportunity. One of the main goals of the discussions was to achieve a one-third cut in tariffs that would have saved American families more than $1,000 a year, according to government estimates. Without an agreement, those potential savings are lost.

Economists disagreed over the longer-term effects of failure to achieve lower customs duties.

Some economists believe that unless there is an agreement to lower tariffs, nations will retaliate and raise tariffs. Robert Lawrence, an economist at the Brookings Institution in Washington, called this the bicycle theory of trade negotiations. “Unless you keep peddling forward, you fall down.”

Higher trade barriers would be costly. Paula Stern, a Washington trade consultant, said economic barriers could lower the gross national product--the value of the nation’s output--by $100 billion through the end of the 1990s.

However, economists are not certain that the world’s nations would throw up steep trade barriers. Goldstein said that although a trade war is possible, he did not think it likely. “The nations can’t go on forever agreeing to disagree,” he said.