THE NFL DRAFT/ ANALYSIS : Patriots See Slim Pickings at No. 1 Spot

Joe Mendes, top talent sleuth for the New England Patriots, looks at draft picks as currency. But he knows they aren’t really worth anything unless you spend them wisely.

Fortunes can be won and lost, Super Bowl champions determined and dynasties built, depending on how judiciously NFL draft picks are invested.

Pick, say, a Bruce Smith, and you’ve hit the jackpot. Pick a Ken Sims and you might go bust.

Which brings us back to Mendes and the Patriots.

The Patriots likely will have the first pick in the 1991 draft, a richly deserved reward for finishing with the poorest record in the league this season. But--and doesn’t it just figure with the simply sordid season the Patriots are having--the pick is of questionable value.

“It’s been defined that there is no clear-cut first pick in the draft,” said Mendes, the Patriots’ director of player operations.

It gets worse.

“It is not a great draft,” Mendes said.

No franchise player. No great surplus of talent. No way for the Patriots to get better in a hurry? No, sir.

With seven picks in the first four rounds, including the big one at the top, the Patriots are in position to help themselves considerably. It will depend on what Mendes and new Patriots Chief Executive Officer Sam Jankovich come up with.

“We’ll look at a lot of avenues and go with the one that is the best value,” Mendes said. “We can keep the (first overall) pick and draft the player that we consider the best player in the country. We can attempt to trade the pick for multiple choices or a combination of multiple picks, plus players. Or we can trade the pick for a veteran player or veteran players. . . . It’s just a matter of time to see what avenue is the best one to pursue.”

“New England has to trade down,” said Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN’s draft analyst. “I don’t think New England can afford to keep the pick. They need too much help.”

Kiper thinks Raghib Ismail will be the first player taken in the draft, even though the Notre Dame flash has said he intends to return for his senior year. Kiper believes Ismail will come out when he realizes he would be the first player drafted and be guaranteed lifetime financial security.

Would this mean the Patriots would take Ismail? Probably not. But they would be able to find someone who would like that opportunity, someone, say, like Dallas, which is sitting in the catbird seat with no less than three first-round draft picks in ’91. Atlanta also has two first-round picks.

Without a quarterback the quality of a Jeff George in the draft, don’t look for a blockbuster deal such as the Indianapolis Colts and the Atlanta Falcons executed before the last draft (first overall pick to Indianapolis from Atlanta for Andre Rison, Chris Hinton and a No. 1 in ‘91). But the Dallas Cowboys or Falcons might be persuaded to accept the top spot in the draft and, say, Irving Fryar or Hart Lee Dykes or John Stephens and another pick or two or from the Patriots in exchange for two of their first-round picks.

A trade may be the best way to go, too, judging by the Patriots’ track record with the top overall pick. They’ve been in that position three times. In 1971 they took Stanford quarterback Jim Plunkett; in 1982 they took Sims, a defensive tackle from Texas; and in 1984 they took Fryar, a wide receiver from Nebraska. Only Plunkett had the type of success--two Super Bowl victories--equal to the position he was drafted, and that came after he had joined the Raiders.