ANALYSIS : Team to Beat Hasn’t Changed Much

At the start of a new playoff season, the NFL question is the same as it was two years ago, or a year ago, or six months ago or last week: Can anyone catch the San Francisco 49ers?

The 49ers’ goal is also unchanged: a third consecutive Super Bowl championship.

Not quite so obvious is how hard it is to get there. The nation is beginning to take the 49ers for granted. It might be a little bored if they win again.

Even in San Francisco, many fans don’t seem to realize that the 49ers are reaching for a prize that is all but unattainable.

Three championships in a row is improbable today in any sport. Given the emotional nature of football, the intellectual challenge, the primitive violence, such a feat seems inconceivable in the modern NFL.

If the 49ers survive to win Super Bowl XXV--on top of XXIII and XXIV, and, earlier, XVI and XIX--the accomplishment deserves to be recognized for what it will be: a phenomenon.

How the playoff field stacks up:

1. Team: San Francisco 49ers

Record: 14-2

Finish: First in NFC West

Coach: George Seifert

This isn’t the team it was last season. Its aging cheerleaders, halfback Roger Craig and free safety Ronnie Lott, have been slowed by injuries. Minus the old Ronnie Lott, the defense is still formidable but no longer overwhelming. Minus a running game, quarterback Joe Montana has been asked to throw the ball too often to wide receivers Jerry Rice and John Taylor when they aren’t really open. Only Montana’s magic makes the 49ers the team to beat.

2. Team: Buffalo Bills

Record: 13-3

Finish: First in AFC East

Coach: Marv Levy

As built by Levy and General Manager Bill Polian, the Bills are the only complete team in the league this year. They have the pass rush and the passing. There are stars on both sides of the ball, defensive end Bruce Smith and running back Thurman Thomas. Moreover, their January weather pleases no one else. Their problem could be at quarterback. With three good ones--Jim Kelly, Frank Reich and Gale Gilbert--the Bills could be privately wondering whom to rally around, strange as that sounds.

3. Team: Raiders

Record: 12-4

Finish: First in AFC West

Coach: Art Shell

If this club passes its first playoff test Jan. 13, it will have a better chance than any other AFC club to win the conference title game if it’s at Buffalo the following Sunday. Motivated by owner Al Davis, the Raiders, unlike such other warm-climate teams as the Rams and the 49ers, play tough football in bad weather. But despite their Super Bowl talent, the Raiders are an inconsistent team. Despite good blockers and backs, they can’t count on controlling any game by running the ball. Despite good receivers, can they win three consecutive big games with quarterback Jay Schroeder?

4. Team: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 10-6

Finish: Second in NFC East

Coach: Buddy Ryan

Most sports fans tend to discount the Eagles because of the erratic nature of the coach and his players, and because Ryan also lacks a first-class ground game. The NFL playoffs, however, unlike the NBA playoffs and the World Series, are a single-elimination tournament. And in such a crap shoot, it helps to have a Ryan-type pressure defense and a quarterback with the running and passing skills of Randall Cunningham. The question is whether defensive end Reggie White and the others in the NFL’s No. 1 front four are too battered to play four consecutive big games.

5. Team: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 11-5

Finish: Second in AFC West

Coach: Marty Schottenheimer

Since last summer, it has seemed obvious that the Chiefs would go as far as quarterback Steve DeBerg could take them. There is so much talent around the quarterback, at the running and receiving positions as well as on defense, that the Chiefs could be expected to win with almost any NFL backup passer. And DeBerg has had a good year. A tough old guy, he hangs in the pocket bravely, and he has been throwing the ball as well on Sunday afternoons as he used to during practice with the 49ers. With Kansas City’s conservative play-action game, DeBerg can beat the Raiders, too--but maybe not the Bills.

6. Team: New York Giants

Record: 13-3

Finish: First in NFC East

Coach: Bill Parcells

Their opponents were hard-put to average 13 points a game against the Giants this season. That was by far the best defensive showing in the league. As they proved against the 49ers at San Francisco last month, the Giants have a Super Bowl defense. But their offense hasn’t been that inspiring with either injured quarterback Phil Simms or his replacement, Jeff Hostetler. It’s an even more conservative offense than Kansas City’s. Although General Manager George Young shrewdly built the Giants to win cold-weather games in the East, playoff games are something else.

7. Team: Houston Oilers

Record: 9-7

Finish: Second in AFC Central

Coach: Jack Pardee

Along with the Bills, Chicago Bears and Giants, the Oilers lost their starting quarterback last month. But in their last game, they flew into the playoffs with a big performance by Warren Moon’s replacement, Cody Carlson. During the regular season, the Oilers’ run-and-shoot offense was a convincing winner over two of the AFC’s playoff powers, the Bills and Chiefs, piling up more than 500 passing yards at Kansas City. Their problem is not that they’re a run-and-shoot team but that they’re a dome team. As long as they last, they’ll be on the road, where dome teams usually flounder.

8. Team: Cincinnati Bengals

Record: 9-7

Finish: First in AFC Central

Coach: Sam Wyche

The Bengals have some negatives. Their left-handed leader, Boomer Esiason, has the look of a quarterback playing hurt. Their pass rush is undependable. And Wyche couldn’t keep them steady in a wild peaks-and-valleys season, during which, by turns, they resembled a Super Bowl team and a cellar team. But along with Houston, Philadelphia and the other contenders employing big-play quarterbacks, the Bengals can fire the weapon that means the most in the postseason. In Cincinnati, that’s Esiason--if he isn’t hurt.

9. Team: Washington Redskins

Record: 10-6

Finish: Third in NFC East

Coach: Joe Gibbs

This team isn’t as dominating on defense as it was when Gibbs was winning two Super Bowls in the 1980s. Nor has Mark Rypien yet settled down, in his fourth NFL season, to take charge at quarterback. But the Redskins are a threat with Gibbs’ one-back, multiple-motion offense. It’s probably the NFL’s best attack. Mixing power runs with good pass plays, the Redskins force opponents to stack eight bodies on the line of scrimmage, whereupon they pass over them--except against the Giants. They could beat the Eagles, maybe, but for the Redskins, the Giants are something else.

10. Team: Miami Dolphins

Record: 12-4

Finish: Second in AFC East

Coach: Don Shula

The NFL’s most improved team this season, the Dolphins can run a little now, and they are playing sounder defense. And that has brought quarterback Dan Marino back to life. Proving again that, when surrounded by fairly talented people, he leads the class as a passer, Marino is even standing in long enough to take some sacks. The Dolphins’ problem is beating good teams on the road, particularly Buffalo’s good team. But this year, they’re one of 10 entries with enough on defense and at quarterback to make the Super Bowl.

11. Team: Chicago Bears

Record: 11-5

Finish: First in NFC Central

Coach: Mike Ditka

The Bears and the New Orleans Saints are the two that lack Super Bowl passing. When Chicago starter Jim Harbaugh was lost to injury last month, Ditka apparently committed himself to Mike Tomczak over rookie Peter Tom Willis, the better passer but untested. Last week, Ditka didn’t even test Willis in a meaningless game. The Bears still have some defensive strengths, and Ditka is sound enough and clever enough to win division titles with Tomczak--but not Super Bowls.

12. Team: New Orleans Saints

Record: 8-8

Finish: Second in NFC West

Coach: Jim Mora

This is the other playoff team that has no chance to get to Super Bowl XXV. Ineffective in recent seasons with either Bobby Hebert or John Fourcade at quarterback, the Saints aren’t much better with Steve Walsh. By comparison with the Rams’ Jim Everett the other night, Walsh had the look of a high school quarterback--although New Orleans won. Walsh will get better, though not this season. Their great play at linebacker put the Saints in the playoffs--but it’s the play of the quarterback that wins Super Bowls.