POP MUSIC : Will the Grammys Be a Female Affair? : Look for women artists to dominate this week’s nominations

Grammy award voters are about to certify what record buyers knew all along: Women dominated the pop scene in 1990.

Sinead O’Connor and the female trio Wilson Phillips are expected to be in the running in both of the most prestigious categories--record and album of the year--when the 33rd annual Grammy award nominations are announced at a Beverly Hills press conference on Thursday

O’Connor is the front-runner in both contests with her evocative ballad “Nothing Compares 2 U” and her critically hailed album, “I Do Not Want What I Haven’t Got.” Wilson Phillips is likely to make the finals with its breakthrough hit “Hold On” and its best-selling debut album.

Overall, female artists are expected to capture four of the five nominations in the best single record competition. That hasn’t happened since 1978. Bette Midler, who has received three Grammys since 1973, and hot newcomer Mariah Carey are likely to join O’Connor and Wilson Phillips in the finals.

M.C. Hammer, whose “Please Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em” was the best-selling album of 1990, is also likely to be nominated for both record and album of the year. Two past winners of the best album trophy--Phil Collins and Billy Joel--should round out the field of album nominees.

Look for O’Connor to be nominated for four Grammys--including one in the newly added alternative music category. And she has a good chance of winning them all when the Grammys are presented Feb. 20 at Radio City Music Hall in New York. That would match Bonnie Raitt’s four-Grammy sweep at last year’s event.

What’s more, O’Connor would become the first female artist to win both of the top honors since Carole King accomplished the feat two decades ago with the album “Tapestry” and the single “It’s Too Late.”

Here’s how the key races shape up. The entries are listed in order of estimated strength:

Record of the Year

“Nothing Compares 2 U,” Sinead O’Connor. This dramatic version of an old Prince song is likely to appeal to both the old guard and the younger voters in the 6,000-member National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences. The smash swept the MTV Awards and landed O’Connor on the cover of Rolling Stone magazine, but it also made the Top 10 on the pop and adult contemporary charts. It’s that broad base of support that will make it so hard to beat.

“From a Distance,” Bette Midler. Midler, who won this award last year with “Wind Beneath My Wings,” is likely to return to the finals with this similarly philosophical ballad. She’ll be the first woman to be nominated in this category two years in a row since Barbra Streisand a decade ago with “You Don’t Bring Me Flowers” and “Woman in Love.”

“Hold On,” Wilson Phillips. This act has the bloodlines: The trio consists of daughters of founding members of the Beach Boys and the Mamas & the Papas. It also has massive sales: Its debut album has sold more than 3 million copies and generated back-to-back No. 1 singles. It may be enough to make voters forget that the record itself is kind of blah.

“Vision of Love,” Mariah Carey. This elegant, Whitney Houston-esque ballad logged four weeks at No. 1 last summer. Houston, meanwhile, is unlikely to make the finals with her frisky “I’m Your Baby Tonight.”

“U Can’t Touch This,” M.C. Hammer. This irresistible rap hit spawned the year’s top pop catch phrase. Bear in mind: Bobby McFerrin’s “Don’t Worry . . . Be Happy,” the feel-good/catch-phrase hit of 1988, won that year’s best record citation. The potential problem: The musicians and songwriters in the academy may downgrade “U Can’t Touch This” because it was based on an earlier hit, Rick James’ “Super Freak.”

Madonna’s sleek, impeccably crafted “Vogue” could conceivably replace the Hammer hit in the finals, but Madonna has never been nominated for best record or album. “Vogue,” her best-selling and most widely admired single to date, could change that. But the recent publicity for the racy “Justify My Love” video may have blown her chances, focusing as it did on her sexpot image and self-promotion skills rather than her music.

Also possible: Phil Collins’ “Another Day in Paradise,” Billy Idol’s “Cradle of Love,” Aerosmith’s “Janie’s Got a Gun,” Janet Jackson’s “Escapade,” Gloria Estefan’s “Here We Are,” Linda Ronstadt & Aaron Neville’s “All My Life,” James Ingram’s “I Don’t Have the Heart,” Paula Abdul’s “Opposites Attract.”

Album of the Year

“I Do Not Want What I Haven’t Got,” Sinead O’Connor. Though this album yielded just one hit single, it sold well (2 million-plus in the U.S.) and drew critical raves.

“Please Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em,” M.C. Hammer. This was the album that made rap safe for mainstream America--and you don’t get any more mainstream than Grammy voters. Eight million album buyers can’t be wrong.

” ... But Seriously,” Phil Collins. The Englishman’s previous solo album, “No Jacket Required,” won this award in 1986. And singles from this album have dominated pop and adult contemporary radio all year long.

“Wilson Phillips.” The new act could be nominated for both best record and album, as Tracy Chapman was two years ago with her debut. Industry vet Charles Koppelman has played a key role in both artists’ success. He helped develop Chapman and heads the hot new SBK Records, which spawned Wilson Phillips.

“Storm Front,” Billy Joel. This was Joel’s biggest album since his late-’70s/early-’80s heyday, when he made the finals with four straight studio albums.

Quincy Jones’ “Back on the Block” is the big question mark in this category. Jones’ name is magic with academy voters. He has won 19 Grammys--including five for his previous album, “The Dude,” a 1982 best-album finalist. But this long-awaited follow-up came out early in the year and is already off the charts. And it generated just one Top 30 single--a remake of a Jones oldie from the ‘70s. This time he’ll probably just miss.

Also possible: “Mariah Carey,” George Michael’s “Listen Without Prejudice, Vol. 1,” Midler’s “Some People’s Lives,” the Vaughan Brothers’ “Family Style.”

Best New Artist

Those bloodlines should give Wilson Phillips the edge in a close contest with Carey--who has yet to establish a distinct identity. The good news: Both acts actually sing--fancy that!--so there’s no danger of a replay of last year’s Milli Vanilli fiasco. The other likely nominees: Lisa Stansfield, Bell Biv DeVoe and Vanilla Ice. Also possible: En Vogue, Nelson, Kentucky Headhunters, Calloway, Michel’le.

Here are the likely nominees in key performance categories. Entries--which can be for albums, singles or tracks--are listed in order of expected finish.

Best pop vocal performance, female: O’Connor is the front-runner with “Nothing Compares 2 U,” though there will be sentiment for Midler’s “From a Distance.” Also: “Mariah Carey,” Houston’s “I’m Your Baby Tonight,” Estefan’s “Here We Are.” The competition is so strong that the “second five” (Madonna, Jackson, Abdul, Stansfield, Taylor Dayne) is as formidable as the list of nominees in most years.

Pop male: Collins, who won in 1985 and 1986, is the odds-on favorite to win again in this category with “ . . . But Seriously.” Also: Ingram’s “I Don’t Have the Heart,” Joel’s “Storm Front,” Michael Bolton’s “Georgia on My Mind,” George Michael’s “Praying for Time.”

Pop duo/group: Wilson Phillips’ album looks like an easy winner over “All My Life,” the latest hit by last year’s duo champs, Ronstadt & Neville. Also: Jones’ “Back on the Block,” the Righteous Brothers’ “Unchained Melody,” the B-52’s’ “Roam.”

Rock female: Janet Jackson is likely to win for “Black Cat.” Her brother, Michael, won in the rock field in 1984 with “Beat It.” Also: Alannah Myles’ “Black Velvet,” Melissa Etheridge’s “Let Me Go,” Tina Turner’s “Steamy Windows,” Lita Ford’s “Stiletto.” Always the thinnest category.

Rock male: Billy Idol’s “Cradle of Love” was a pop, rock and MTV smash. Also: Eric Clapton’s “Journeyman,” Steve Winwood’s “Refugees of the Heart,” “Joe Cocker Live!,” Neil Young’s “Rockin’ in the Free World.”

Rock duo/group: Aerosmith’s “Janie’s Got a Gun,” a ballad about child abuse, should finally bring the veteran hard-rock band its first Grammy. Also: INXS’ “Suicide Blonde,” Neil Young & Crazy Horse’s “Ragged Glory,” Heart’s “Brigade,” the Vaughan Brothers’ “Telephone Song.”

Hard rock: Faith No More’s “Epic” redefined the genre in 1990 with this radical rap ‘n’ metal single, though Living Colour, which won here last year, will also have support for its follow-up album, “Time’s Up.” Also: Jane’s Addiction’s “Ritual de lo Habitual,” AC/DC’s “The Razors Edge,” Queensryche’s “Empire.”

Metal: Metallica won last year for “One” and will probably win again with “Stone Cold Crazy.” Also: Black Sabbath’s “TYR,” Megadeth’s “Rust in Peace,” Judas Priest’s “Painkiller,” Anthrax’s “Persistence of Time.”

R&B; female: Janet Jackson (“Alright”) may turn the tables this year on Anita Baker (“Compositions”), who has bested Jackson twice in this category. Also: Pebbles’ “Giving You the Benefit,” Dianne Reeves’ “Never Too Far,” Regina Belle’s “Make It Like It Was.”

R&B; male: Luther Vandross is likely to finally win a Grammy with “Here and Now,” which last year became his first Top 10 pop hit. Also: Keith Sweat’s “I’ll Give All My Love to You,” “Johnny Gill,” Al B. Sure!’s “Misunderstanding,” Babyface’s “Whip Appeal.”

R&B; duo/group: How can the voters resist the chance to give a Grammy to Ray Charles & Chaka Khan? The team’s “I’ll Be Good to You” was the biggest hit from “Back on the Block.” Also: En Vogue’s “Born to Sing,” Calloway’s “I Wanna Be Rich,” Bell Biv DeVoe’s “Poison,” Al B. Sure!, James Ingram, El DeBarge and Barry White’s “The Secret Garden (Sweet Seduction Suite).”

Rap solo: It’s Hammer time! Hammer’s “Please Hammer Don’t Hurt ‘Em” is a cinch to win. Also: Vanilla Ice’s “Ice Ice Baby,” Young M.C.’s “Principal’s Office,” L.L. Cool J’s “Mama Said Knock You Out,” Queen Latifah’s “All Hail the Queen.”

Rap group: Salt-N-Pepa’s “Expression” is the likely winner in this unlikely mix of controversial and G-rated rappers. Also: Digital Underground’s “The Humpty Dance,” Luke featuring 2 Live Crew’s “Banned in the U.S.A.,” DJ Jazzy Jeff & the Fresh Prince’s “And in This Corner . . . ,” Public Enemy’s “Fear of a Black Planet.”

Country female: It’s time for Kathy Mattea (“Where’ve You Been”) to add a Grammy to her long list of awards. Also: K.T. Oslin’s “Come Next Monday,” Reba McEntire’s “Rumor Has It,” Emmylou Harris’ “Never Be Anyone Else but You,” Holly Dunn’s “Heart Full of Love.”

Country male: Garth Brooks’ “No Fences” album sold 2 million copies out of the box, giving it the edge in an especially strong field. Also: Clint Black’s “Walkin’ Away,” George Strait’s “Livin’ It Up,” Randy Travis’ “Hard Rock Bottom of Your Heart,” Rodney Crowell’s “Keys to the Highway.”

Country duo/group: The Judds (“Love Can Build a Bridge”) will get a surge of support following their recent announcement that mother Naomi Judd is retiring from concerts due to health reasons. The four-time Grammy winners might have won anyway, but now they appear unbeatable. Also: Kentucky Headhunters’ “Pickin’ on Nashville,” Restless Heart’s “Fast Movin’ Train,” Desert Rose Band’s “Pages of Life,” Shenandoah’s “Next to You, Next to Me.”