THE TIMES POLL : Wilson Popular but Some of His Proposals Aren’t

Californians highly regard their new governor, Pete Wilson, but they oppose his plans to cut benefits for welfare mothers and deny cost-of-living increases for schools, The Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

The public also objects to most of Wilson’s tax increase ideas, accepting only his proposals to raise levies on liquor and extend the sales tax to candy and snack foods.

People obviously want it all--no spending cuts or major tax increases. They clearly will not be able to have that in a recession when tax revenues are falling far short of projections and state government is facing a deficit of up to $10 billion over the next 17 months.

Under the California Constitution, the state’s annual budget must be balanced--unlike Washington’s, where there is no constitutional requirement for a balanced federal budget. California citizens seem even more perplexed than their elected representatives about how to erase Sacramento’s red ink.

Trying to “spread the pain,” the new governor has suggested a wide range of program cuts coupled with tax and fee increases to balance a proposed $55.7-billion budget for the next fiscal year, which starts July 1.

Politically, Wilson is in a strong position. He is more popular now--one month into his governorship--than he was at the height of his election campaign last October, according to Times surveys.

Nearly two-thirds of the registered voters--65%--have a favorable impression of the governor, compared to 21% who have an unfavorable impression. In October, the voters’ opinions of him were 54% favorable and 34% unfavorable. Even Democrats now have a favorable impression of the Republican chief executive.

The governor clearly has a lot more public support than the leaders of the Legislature, his natural adversaries.

Assembly Speaker Willie Brown of San Francisco was viewed favorably by 24% of the voters surveyed, compared to 36% who had an unfavorable impression of the Democratic leader. The other 40% did not know enough about Brown to offer an opinion. The Speaker enjoys overwhelming support among fellow blacks.

Hardly anybody outside his legislative district knows much about Senate President Pro Tem David A. Roberti (D-Los Angeles). Three-fourths of the voters have no opinion of him. Among those who do, opinions are basically divided.

Although Wilson is making a favorable impression on voters, they are less certain about the job he is doing as governor. Roughly half say they know enough about his early performance in Sacramento to have an opinion. Among those who do, the people who approve greatly outnumber those who disapprove by 41% to 12%.

One major task confronting Wilson is to persuade the public that the state budget deficit is serious enough to warrant spending cuts and tax increases. When The Times Poll asked voters what they consider to be “the most important problem facing California today,” the budget deficit ranked only fourth, well below the top-rated dilemmas of crime/drugs and the water shortage.

Education was judged the third most pressing problem and is of much more concern to people of child-bearing age than to those in their retirement years.

Voters overwhelmingly rejected, by 2 to 1, Wilson’s proposal to skip cost-of-living increases for public schools, from kindergarten through community colleges, to help balance the budget. In all, Wilson’s education cutbacks would save the state nearly $2 billion and require suspension of Proposition 98, the 1988 ballot measure that guaranteed schools about 40% of the state’s general fund.

For the first time, a governor also has proposed cutting basic payments in the huge Aid to Families with Dependent Children program. Under Wilson’s plan, subsistence grants would be cut by about 9% for the 2.2 million women and children on AFDC.

Even though these welfare cuts would help the state make ends meet, voters oppose them by more than 5 to 3. The governor’s fellow Republicans are split about evenly on his proposal, but Democrats object overwhelmingly.

There is a contradiction in the voters’ opposition to AFDC cuts. They also think, by nearly 2 to 1, that the state “is spending too much on welfare” rather than “about the right amount.”

Voters who approve of the governor’s proposed welfare cutbacks think, by 4 to 3, that “most poor people are lazy” rather than hard-working. Conversely, those who oppose the cuts believe, by 5 to 2, that the poor work hard when given a chance.

Wilson is trying to sweeten his spending cuts and tax hikes with an ambitious program aimed at shifting state priorities toward prevention of society’s ailments before they develop. That concept is virtually non-controversial.

Voters overwhelmingly, by 4 to 1, back the governor’s proposal to spend more money on prevention programs such as prenatal care, mental health counseling in elementary schools, preschooling for 4-year-olds from low-income families and treatment of drug addicts.

In trying to raise new revenue for any reason, the governor and the Legislature are bucking a public mood of declining support for tax increases.

Last September, a Times poll found 68% of the voters saying that they would support a tax hike for a specific purpose, such as education or crime fighting. Now, with the nation in a recession, that figure has fallen to 56%, with education, crime, environmental protection, health care and the homeless drawing the most support for new tax dollars, in that order. Welfare ranks at the bottom of the priority list.

The voters are very choosy about which tax increases they would accept. When queried about specific tax hikes that Wilson has advocated to offset the deficit, they supported just two: his plan to increase taxes on alcoholic beverages, by nearly 5 to 1, and his proposal to extend the sales tax to candy and snack foods, by roughly 3 to 2.

Interestingly, voters last November rejected two ballot initiatives that would have hiked liquor taxes.

A proposal by Wilson to increase motor vehicle license fees is opposed by about 5 to 3. So is his plan to extend the sales tax to newspapers and magazines, although by a narrower margin of 6 to 5. The governor also wants to impose income tax withholding on payments to contractors, bonuses to employees and earnings from estates and trusts, but this is opposed by 7 to 4. His proposal to cut the renters’ tax credit is opposed overwhelmingly, by 5 to 2.

Wilson has not suggested hiking income or sales tax rates and politically this may be smart. Voters, by more than 4 to 1, oppose raising income taxes. By nearly 3 to 1, they object to hiking the sales tax. Some Democratic legislators have talked about raising income taxes and Wilson has indicated that he might consider a sales tax increase.

When voters were asked which of all these taxes and fees they would prefer, the overwhelming choice--picked by two-thirds of them--was the liquor tax. Far down in second place--chosen by about one-fourth--was imposing a sales tax on candy and snack foods, such as crackers, chips, pretzels and popcorn.

Finally, The Times Poll attempted to measure public support for California’s new U.S. senator, former state Sen. John Seymour of Anaheim. He is hardly a household word.

Asked to name California’s two U.S. senators, only 8% of the voters could cite Seymour, a Republican whom Wilson recently appointed as his replacement in Congress. Less than half--48%--could name Democrat Alan Cranston, who has been in the Senate for 22 years.

When voters were read Seymour’s name and asked their general impression of him, only 1 in 5 knew enough about the senator to venture an opinion. Of those who did, the result was 3 to 1 favorable.

Meanwhile, Democrat Dianne Feinstein’s popularity seems basically the same as it was last October, just before she narrowly lost to Wilson in their gubernatorial race. The voters’ current impression of her is 52% favorable and 36% unfavorable.

Feinstein says she intends to challenge Seymour in next year’s election. At this point, long before any formal campaigning begins and with Seymour a virtual unknown, Feinstein leads in a mythical matchup among registered voters by 36% to 25%, with 11% saying they would vote for somebody else and 28% offering no opinion.

The Times Poll conducted the statewide survey by telephone for four days ending last Tuesday. In all, 1,986 adults were interviewed, including 1,482 registered voters. The margin of error was 3 percentage points in either direction for all people interviewed and 4 points for just the registered voters. The survey was supervised by Susan Pinkus, assistant Times Poll director.

VIEWS ON THE BUDGET DEFICIT

The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 1,482 registered voters in California from Jan. 26-29, asking the following:

* Do you approve or disapprove of the way Pete Wilson is handling his job as governor?

Approve: 41%

Disapprove: 12%

No Opinion: 47%

* If higher fees and taxes do become necessary to help offset the state budget deficit, would you prefer the state to:

YES NO Increase taxes on alcoholic beverages 81% 17% Add a sales tax on candy and 57% 40% snack foods Add a sales tax on newspapers 44% 52% and magazines Increase motor vehicle fees 38% 58% Impose income tax withholding on 30% 55% contractors, employee bonuses and earnings of estates and trusts Raise general sales tax rates 26% 71% Cut renters’ tax credit 24% 62% Increase general income tax rates 18% 78%

NOTE: Categories do not add to 100% due to “don’t know” responses.

SOURCE: Los Angeles Times Poll