The Weather May Turn Out to Have Swing Vote in 35th

With so few voters expected to cast ballots in Tuesday’s special 35th Senate District election, political strategists figure it may be that Mother Nature will actually decide who wins the seat.

In this strange but competitive race to replace former Anaheim state Sen. John Seymour, campaign officials said they are expecting one of the lowest voter turnouts ever in Orange County, at the same time that they are seeing the largest number of absentee ballots ever filed in a special election.

The combination means that if it rains on Tuesday, keeping some voters at home, the candidate who worked hardest on generating absentee votes could win. And if it’s sunny, a strong get-out-the-vote effort on Election Day could swing it to another of the 10 candidates.

The forecast calls for partly cloudy skies.

“If it starts pouring, it can make a big difference,” said Mark Thompson, campaign manager for Republican candidate John R. Lewis, an assemblyman from Orange. “Then, absentee (ballots) would become even more critical.”

David Ellis, an Orange County Republican consultant, added: “The top vote-getter on Tuesday may not be the winner. I think it will be one of the lowest turnouts we’ve seen in a long time.”

Tuesday’s election is expected to be close, with at least four of the eight Republican candidates still considered front-runners--Orange County Transportation Commissioner Dana Reed and Assembly members Lewis, Doris Allen (R-Cypress) and Nolan Frizzelle (R-Fountain Valley). The other candidates are: Republicans William A. Dougherty, John S. Parise, Charles V. Smith and Jim Wronski, Democrat Francis X. Hoffman and Libertarian Eric Sprik.

If none of the candidates receives more than 50% of the vote--as is expected--a runoff between the top vote-getters of each party will be held May 14. Unlike regular primaries, this special election allows voters to cast ballots for any candidate regardless of party.

“My guess is that it’s going to be close because I haven’t seen any candidate dominate so far,” said Sal Russo, campaign manager for Frizzelle. “It’s too hard to tell who’s going to win.”

It would not be unprecedented for one of the candidates to win the race on Election Day, but lose when the absentee ballots are counted.

It happened last year in Orange County’s most recent special election for state Senate when Assemblyman Gil Ferguson (R-Newport Beach) won the vote on Election Day but lost the race to former Assemblyman Frank Hill (R-Whittier).

The county registrar of voters office said Friday that 17,360 people had cast absentee ballots so far for Tuesday’s election out of a total of 35,940 ballots issued.

All four of the front-runners are drawing their strength from different bases.

Lewis and Frizzelle are expecting big support from voters in their Assembly districts because both substantially overlap the Senate district. On the other hand, they are both competing for the same conservative voters.

Reed and Allen, meanwhile, are making their pitches to moderate Republican and Democratic voters. Reed has lobbied voters in the political center by advertising the fact that he’s the only front-runner who supports a woman’s right to have an abortion.

Allen is relying on her background as an activist on the issues of education and the environment to draw support.

Although the race has been surprisingly quiet, controversy erupted late last week surrounding a letter mailed by Reed attacking Lewis.

The letter Reed mailed to district voters last weekend raised several controversies that have surrounded Lewis’ political career, including his indictment in 1989 for allegedly forging former President Ronald Reagan’s signature on campaign literature; a reprimand he received in 1980 from the county Republican Party, and his alleged role in a controversial GOP decision in 1988 to place uniformed guards at polling places in largely Latino precincts of Santa Ana.

Lewis’ forgery indictment was later overturned by an appeals court, and he denies that he ever played a role in the so-called poll guard case. His campaign acknowledged that Lewis was reprimanded by the county party, but it took issue with Reed’s use of the term “censure.”

On Thursday, the Orange County Republican Party’s executive committee reprimanded Reed over his campaign mailer, saying it violated a campaign code of conduct that he had signed at the start of the race.

Reed defended his letter as factual and said the party’s decision was biased because some members are supporting Lewis.

TUESDAY’S ELECTION

Voters in the 35th Senate District go to the polls Tuesday in a special primary election to replace former Anaheim state Sen. John Seymour.

The district includes Anaheim, Orange and Costa Mesa, and parts of Irvine, Huntington Beach, Villa Park, El Toro, Fountain Valley, Westminster and Tustin.

If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a runoff election between the top vote-getters in each party will be held May 14.

Polls open at 7 a.m. and close at 8 p.m.

For information, call (714) 567-7600.

HOW THEY STAND ON KEY ISSUES

The field of candidates for the state’s 35th Senate District includes eight Republicans, one Democrat and one Libertarian who all show striking similarities on some key issues. All 10 candidates support the death penalty and limited terms for legislators. Nine of the candidates oppose a tax increase and proposed legislation outlawing discrimination against gays.

ABORTION: Support woman’s right to an abortion?

Republicans Doris Allen: N William A. Dougherty: Y Nolan Frizzle: N John R. Lewis: N John S. Parise: N Dana Reed: Y Charles B. Smith: N Jim Wronski: Y

Libertarian Eric Sprik: Y

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: Y

ASSAULT WEAPONS: Support California’s ban?

Republicans Doris Allen: N William A. Dougherty: Y Nolan Frizzle: N John R. Lewis: N John S. Parise: NC Dana Reed: Y Charles B. Smith: Y Jim Wronski: N

Libertarian Eric Sprik: N

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: Y

FIREARMS PURCHASE: Support California’s 15-day waiting period to investigate buyer?

Republicans Doris Allen: Y William A. Dougherty: Y Nolan Frizzle: N John R. Lewis: N John S. Parise: Y Dana Reed: Y Charles B. Smith: Y Jim Wronski: N

Libertarian Eric Sprik: N

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: Y(1)

TAXES: Support tax increase to reduce state’s budget deficit?

Republicans Doris Allen: N William A. Dougherty: Y(2) Nolan Frizzle: N(3) John R. Lewis: N John S. Parise: N Dana Reed: N Charles B. Smith: N Jim Wronski: N

Libertarian Eric Sprik: N

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: N

TERM LIMITS: Support limited terms for legislators?

Republicans Doris Allen: Y William A. Dougherty: Y Nolan Frizzle: Y John R. Lewis: Y John S. Parise: Y Dana Reed: Y Charles B. Smith: Y Jim Wronski: Y

Libertarian Eric Sprik: Y

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: Y

GAY RIGHTS: Support pending legislation to outlaw discrimination against gays by employers?

Republicans Doris Allen: N William A. Dougherty: Y Nolan Frizzle: N John R. Lewis: N John S. Parise: N Dana Reed: N Charles B. Smith: N Jim Wronski: N

Libertarian Eric Sprik: N

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: N

SCHOOL VOUCHERS: Support voucher program where parents chose children’s school

Republicans Doris Allen: Y William A. Dougherty: Y Nolan Frizzle: Y John R. Lewis: Y John S. Parise: Y Dana Reed: N Charles B. Smith: N Jim Wronski: Y

Libertarian Eric Sprik: Y

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: N

SCHOOL FUNDING: Support Governor’s proposal to suspend the funding requirements passed by voters last year in Prop. 98 because state budget deficit?

Republicans Doris Allen: N William A. Dougherty: N Nolan Frizzle: Y John R. Lewis: NC John S. Parise: Y Dana Reed: Y Charles B. Smith: N Jim Wronski: N

Libertarian Eric Sprik: N

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: N

JAIL: Support construction of new county jail in Gypsum Canyon?

Republicans Doris Allen: NC William A. Dougherty: N Nolan Frizzle: NC John R. Lewis: N John S. Parise: N Dana Reed: NC Charles B. Smith: NC Jim Wronski: N

Libertarian Eric Sprik: N

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: N

JAIL TAX: Support proposed sales tax to fund jail construction?

Republicans Doris Allen: NC William A. Dougherty: N Nolan Frizzle: NC John R. Lewis: N John S. Parise: Y Dana Reed: Y Charles B. Smith: Y Jim Wronski: Y

Libertarian Eric Sprik: Y

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: Y

DEATH PENALTY: Support penalty?

Republicans Doris Allen: Y William A. Dougherty: Y Nolan Frizzle: Y John R. Lewis: Y John S. Parise: Y Dana Reed: Y Charles B. Smith: Y Jim Wronski: Y

Libertarian Eric Sprik: Y

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: Y

GAS TAX: Favored last year’s gas tax increase for transportation projects?

Republicans Doris Allen: Y William A. Dougherty: Y Nolan Frizzle: N John R. Lewis: N John S. Parise: N Dana Reed: Y Charles B. Smith: Y Jim Wronski: N

Libertarian Eric Sprik: N

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: N

SALES TAX: Favored Orange County’s sales tax increase for transportation projects?

Republicans Doris Allen: N William A. Dougherty: Y Nolan Frizzle: N John R. Lewis: N John S. Parise: N Dana Reed: Y Charles B. Smith: Y Jim Wronski: N

Libertarian Eric Sprik: N

Democrat Francis X. Hoffman: N

1. If the tax increase was sought by the governor. 2. Supports a reduction in taxes. 3. Supports waiting period for certain firearms. Y: Yes N: No NC: No comment