Reapportionment: As population shifts, the districts of the legislator and four others are vulnerable to change. : Sen. Green’s District Could Be Loser in Remap

The Southeast Los Angeles County state Senate district represented by Democrat Cecil N. Green of Norwalk could be among the losers in this decade’s version of the California reapportionment numbers game.

The political arithmetic goes like this: Based on 1990 census data, each of the state’s 40 Senate districts must contain 744,000 people. Currently, the population of Green’s district--which includes Downey, Norwalk, Bellflower and Cerritos--is more than 100,000 below that number, according to legislative officials.

That disparity dramatically increases the chances that the district may be redrawn in a way that jeopardizes Green’s political future.

The numbers problem facing Green, who has held his seat since 1987, is shared to lesser degrees by four of the other five state senators whose districts encompass parts of the Southeast.

To reach the magic 744,000 population figure, the districts--now represented by Art Torres (D-Los Angeles), Charles M. Calderon (D-Whittier), Bill Greene (D-Los Angeles) and Ralph C. Dills (D-Gardena)--each must add thousands of new constituents because population within them has failed to keep pace with other parts of California.

Consequently, some of the boundaries for these districts could be combined or pulled eastward. That could cost one or more of the incumbents their jobs. And it could trigger a ripple effect that ultimately boosts the number of senators representing such fast-growing inland areas as the Antelope and San Gabriel valleys and Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

“The growth is to the east, and there’s no question about that,” said Calderon.

Indeed, the one Southeast-area Senate district that does not need to gain population is the one extending farthest to the east. The population of the district, represented by Frank Hill (R-Whittier), is 29,200 above the 744,000 mark, according to legislative officials.

While politicians can artfully design boundaries to ensure safe seats for many incumbents, including those facing population deficits in their districts, one fact in the reapportionment puzzle cannot be changed: Population growth in Southern California’s inland area has been dramatically outstripping growth in much of the rest of the region.

And that probably means redistricting problems for at least a few lawmakers in districts that are significantly below the 744,000 population figure. As Sen. Bill Leonard (R-Big Bear) notes, “Political power sooner or later does follow the population.” His district covers booming inland areas in the San Gabriel Valley and San Bernardino County.

Statewide, one result of the redistricting process could be a cut in the Democratic majority in the Senate, where the current lineup is 26 Democrats, 11 Republicans and one independent, with two vacancies.

Los Angeles County--currently represented by all or part of 17 Senate districts--could lose the equivalent of one full seat, according to lawmakers and legislative staffers. And though the exact shape of the districts will not be decided for months, in the Southeast area the result could be a diminishment in the area’s representation in the Senate.

Historically, as Los Angeles County became the state’s largest county, reapportionment turf fights were punctuated by skirmishes between Northern and Southern California. Now, the battle lines are pitting the interests of such established communities as Norwalk and Downey against the faster-growing inland areas.

These population patterns “will definitely tip the scales of power to the inland counties,” said Assemblyman Pat Nolan (R-Glendale), a member of the Assembly Elections, Reapportionment and Constitutional Amendments Committee that is crafting a redistricting plan.

A look at census figures highlights why legislative boundaries are expected to be shifted toward the growing inland areas. For instance, the inland city of Pomona grew a whopping 42% in the 1980s, to 133,107, and Baldwin Park grew 37%, to 69,330. But Cerritos, with a population of 53,240, virtually stood still.

And while the Southeast cities of Norwalk, Downey and Whittier all grew 11% in population between 1980 and 1990, that rate failed to keep pace with the state’s 26% growth rate. That means the three cities stand to lose representation in the Legislature, according to lawmakers and aides beginning to draw the new boundary lines.

Based on the census figures, the Senate Elections Committee has estimated that Green’s Senate district is 105,000 below the 744,000 population figure needed for new Senate districts. One lawmaker, who asked not to be identified, said that because Green represents a marginally Democratic area, his district could be difficult to protect in redistricting.

Green, whose district also includes parts of Orange County, does not expect that new boundaries encompassing new constituents will pose an obstacle to his winning reelection next year. He said it does not matter to him whether the district grows in Los Angeles or Orange counties.

According to the Senate Elections Committee, the Southeast area senators who also face population deficits find their districts below the 744,000 figure by the following amounts: Greene, 43,300; Torres, 58,200; Calderon, 32,300; and Dills, 62,600.

Comparable population projections for the Assembly and U.S. House of Representatives have not been made public.

Once the Legislature approves a reapportionment plan, it goes to Gov. Pete Wilson for his signature. No matter what Wilson decides, it is widely anticipated that the final maps will face stiff court challenges, especially from Latino or Asian groups seeking to boost minority representation.

Some lawmakers, reviewing the preliminary numbers for Senate districts, have already cooked up their own formulas to compensate for the population deficits in their own districts.

For instance, Calderon suggested that he could add unincorporated areas around Whittier or South Whittier, currently represented by Hill. Calderon also speculated that Hill’s district could be redrawn to stretch farther into Orange County.

In the past, politicians could press for such swaps without having to consider many factors other than self-preservation. But now, changes in the federal Voting Rights Act restrict some of that latitude by requiring that political map makers take steps to ensure that minority representation is not shortchanged. Thus, minority districts such as the one represented by Greene, who is black, have a greater chance of being protected.

Sen. Robert G. Beverly (R-Manhattan Beach) acknowledged that because of the Voting Rights Act, reapportionment “is a new game this year.” The act, he said, compels the Legislature to carve out as many minority districts as possible.

Partly because of that, white senators such as Dills are flirting with the idea of running for a different office. Dills, 81, has said that if his district is dramatically redrawn, he might run instead for Congress. But he stressed that he would not run against an incumbent congressman.

On the Westside, Sen. Herschel Rosenthal (D-Los Angeles) has acknowledged that he could also develop a case of Potomac fever if his Senate district is carved up.

The prospect of senators jumping into congressional races is being taken seriously for several reasons. First, term limits for state lawmakers imposed by the passage last year of Proposition 140 have prompted some legislators to contemplate new political opportunities.

Second, in contrast to a decade ago, the legislators plan to exercise much more control over the drawing of congressional lines, according to Assemblyman Nolan.

“Ten years ago they were willing to accept” a plan drawn up by the late Rep. Philip Burton (D-San Francisco), Nolan said. But this time, he predicted, they will listen to their congressional colleagues and “then go ahead and draw whatever they want.”

REMAPPING OF SENATE DISTRICTS

Based on 1990 census figures, state Senate districts must be redrawn so that each new district represents 744,000 people. The following chart, based on preliminary legislative estimates, shows how current Senate districts encompassing all or part of Southeast Los Angeles County compare to that number.

Number of people District Represented by above or below 744,000 24 Art Torres (D-Los Angeles) -58,200 26 Charles Calderon (D-Whittier) -32,300 27 Bill Greene (D-Los Angeles) -43,300 30 Ralph Dills (D-Gardena) -62,600 31 Frank Hill (R-Whittier) +29,200 33 Cecil Green (D-Norwalk) -105,000