Why the Race for City Hall Is Already On

It says something about the Democratic Party, nationally and statewide, that Los Angeles’ political insiders are beginning to work on an election that is still two years away--the race for mayor.

Take the case of Vicky Rideout. She was a speech writer for Democratic vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro in 1984. In 1988, Rideout was one of the planners of Michael Dukakis’ presidential campaign. Two years later, she was a top adviser in the Democrats’ campaign for California governor.

Today, you’ll find Rideout on the second floor of City Hall, where she’s working as a senior deputy to Councilman Michael Woo, who is thinking about running. Instead of worrying about global issues, she is dealing with the frustrations of projects like setting up restricted parking districts for neighborhood residents.

The reason she and others are taking shelter in L.A. politics is the gloom enveloping the Democratic Party and its poor prospects of winning the presidency in the next election.

Since 1988, when Dukakis’ anticipated victory turned to defeat, political junkies have been turned off to presidential politics. Democrats are fearful that they may not even do well in California’s two Senate races this year. They have good reason to worry. Republican registration is rising.

That makes the 1993 mayoral race one of the few major league contests where Democrats have a good chance to win.

So if Vicky Rideout’s boss decides to run, she will abandon streets and sewers for the more familiar work of running a political campaign.

Another reason is that politicians think Mayor Tom Bradley can be beat.

“People . . . sense a change is coming,” said Assemblyman Richard Katz (D-Sylmar). “Tom has been mayor for (almost) 20 years. He has seen L.A. through some tough times. And now it’s time for a change.”

If that sounds like a campaign speech, it probably is. Katz wants to run for mayor.

Bradley, 73, is halfway through his fifth four-year term, and has given no indication that he is willing to step aside.

A series of investigations into his personal finances tinged him with scandal in 1989-90. But The Times Poll shows he’s still popular. In March, 61% approved of the way he was doing his job. In July, his approval rating had dropped, but was still close to 50%.

Although the mayor remains silent about his intentions, his staff has been pumping out new programs at a furious pace. And one thing we know about the mayor is that he is a devoted reader of the sports pages. He certainly noticed the recent successes of such old guys as pitcher Nolan Ryan and tennis star Jimmy Connors.

Maybe he’ll follow their example and run again. Then the question will be who has the guts to go up against City Hall’s own old guy.

We start the list with Katz and Woo.

If legislative term limits are upheld by the state Supreme Court, Katz faces political unemployment. As a legislator, he can raise the large amount of money needed for a mayoral race. And, unlike some Sacramento lawmakers, he’s known at home, where he’s carefully cultivated his San Fernando Valley base.

Councilman Woo is another strong fund-raiser. At the moment, he’s shopping for support outside his Hollywood-Hollywood Hills-San Fernando Valley district. His efforts have been helped by the fact that he was the first and only council member to call for Police Chief Daryl F. Gates to leave after the police beating of Rodney G. King.

What about last election’s contenders, Councilmen Zev Yaroslavsky and Nate Holden?

Yaroslavsky, who dropped plans for challenging Bradley in 1989, is considering running for a new congressional seat that may be created in L.A. through redistricting. He’s told friends that he’s more interested in Congress than City Hall.

Holden, however, has seldom passed up an election in his political career. In almost forcing Bradley into a runoff in 1989, Holden received a surprisingly strong Valley vote. But against Katz or Woo in 1993, Holden, who is black, would have a more difficult time in the Valley. The Valley’s black population remains small, compared to Anglos and Latinos.

Others are interested. Supervisor Gloria Molina, an aide said, is going to take a look at the race. Gates teases reporters by hinting he’ll run--a Republican conservative taking on the city’s liberal Democratic powers. Councilwoman Joy Picus may run. Nikolas Patsaouras, a member of the RTD and transportation board, is trying to stir up interest in his possible candidacy.

By 1992, these contenders will have to make up their mind. It will be time to assemble funds and campaign organizations.

Those who decide to run will have no trouble finding help. The prize of City Hall and the city it controls is too great to ignore.