THE TIMES POLL : Gay-Rights Bill Veto Narrowly Opposed in State

By a narrow margin, Californians think Gov. Pete Wilson should have signed a bill outlawing job discrimination against homosexuals, and his veto may have caused him some mild political damage, The Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

But the statewide survey, conducted a few days after the veto, showed clearly that the bill presented a “no-win” dilemma for Wilson no matter what he did. While Californians overwhelmingly support the concept of equal job opportunities for homosexuals, they were closely divided over this specific measure.

The governor’s Republican base approved of his action by nearly 2 to 1. But Democrats, whose votes any Republican also must attract to win statewide office, disapproved of the veto by more than 2 to 1. Independents were divided about equally.

Overall, 40% approved of the veto and 46% disapproved, with 14% not sure.

The gay-rights bill represents only a small fraction of the freshman governor’s problems with the public, however. The poll also found that Wilson’s job approval rating has slipped dramatically since a similar survey in May, apparently because of the massive tax increases and spending cuts he and the Legislature agreed on in July in order to resolve a $14.3-billion budget deficit.

In the latest survey, only 39% approved of “the way Pete Wilson is handling his job as governor” and 46% disapproved, with 15% not sure. By contrast, The Times Poll in May found Californians approving of Wilson’s job performance by 52% to 34%, with 14% not sure.

The Times Poll, directed by John Brennan, conducted telephone interviews with 1,042 California adults Wednesday and Thursday. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction for the total number surveyed. Among just Democrats, the error margin is five points, and among just Republicans, it is six.

In contrast to the close division of opinion over Wilson’s veto of the gay-rights bill, there is a much broader consensus regarding his motives. Most people do not buy the governor’s contention that he rejected the bill because present laws are adequate and the proposal would have generated nuisance suits against business, the poll showed.

Instead, they ascribe political motives to his action. By a 2-1 margin, people told interviewers that Wilson vetoed the bill “mainly because of political pressure from Republican conservatives” rather than because “it’s bad and unnecessary legislation.”

Two weeks before last Sunday’s veto, the California Republican Central Committee had demanded that the GOP governor kill the measure, calling it “anti-family” and an “insult to legitimate minorities.” Only four Republican lawmakers voted for the bill when Democrats pushed it through both houses of the Legislature.

This was the first public poll taken since the governor’s veto, which has sparked anti-Wilson demonstrations by gay-rights activists all over the state. While nearly two-thirds of those surveyed said they consider gay activists to be “responsible people,” a majority also asserted that their “marches and rallies hurt the cause of gay rights.”

In questions that contrasted the images of the two most vocal combatants over AB 101, Californians were about evenly split over whether homosexuals have too little or too much political power. But by a 3-1 margin, they said that “people and groups with extremely conservative views”--who are among the homosexuals’ biggest antagonists--have too much political influence.

Some political analysts had predicted during the week that the gay protests, some of them violent, would backfire and sway more people to support Wilson’s veto.

There is some circumstantial evidence that the analysts were correct, based on a survey taken before the veto by another polling organization, the independent California Poll directed by Mervin Field.

Comparing the results of different polling organizations and slightly different questions is statistically risky, but the California Poll found the public to be supporting the gay-rights bill overwhelmingly by 62% to 29%.

After the veto, when The Times Poll asked people their opinions of the bill, they were found to be 30% in favor, 23% opposed and 47% no opinion. Conservatives opposed the measure by nearly 2 to 1, but moderates favored it by 2 to 1, and liberals by 3 to 1.

People were then asked whether they approved or disapproved of Wilson’s veto and responded with 40% approval and 46% disapproval. Those who say they voted for Wilson last November especially approved of the veto. Those who supported his opponent, Democrat Dianne Feinstein, overwhelmingly disapproved.

Most people--56%--said the veto has had no effect on their attitude toward the governor. But 30% said that because of his action, they now look upon him less favorably. Only 10% said they view him more favorably.

Conversely, the poll found that Wilson would have fared slightly better with Californians if he had signed the bill. For most people it still would have made no difference, but the others are split equally--20% and 20%--between those who would have regarded him more favorably and less favorably. “Two-thirds of California voters are moderates and conservatives. This veto seems to have frayed Wilson’s image with the first group,” observed Times Poll director Brennan. “But while signing the bill would have left the moderates happier, it would have eroded his conservative backing. That’s a real political bind, since he needs both groups to win elections.”

Despite their division over this specific bill, authored by Assemblyman Terry B. Friedman (D-Los Angeles), Californians lopsidedly support equal opportunities for homosexuals in the workplace. Of those interviewed, 70% favored “hiring an employee regardless of whether he or she is gay or a lesbian.”

Californians are more liberal than the rest of the nation regarding gay rights, as they are on social issues generally, various polls have shown. For example, a nationwide survey by The Times Poll six years ago found that just 50% believed sexual orientation should not be a factor in hiring. Therefore, if Wilson were to run for president in 1996, as many expect, he probably would have had a tougher time selling his signing of the Friedman bill outside California.

Slightly over half of Californians interviewed in this poll also said they believe that “discrimination against openly gay and lesbian people is common in the workplace.” In fact, a third reported that they work with someone who either is openly homosexual or who they believe to be.

But the public--perhaps having marches and protests in mind--divided about evenly when asked specifically about its “attitude toward the gay and lesbian rights movement.” Liberals supported it overwhelmingly, moderates were split evenly and conservatives emphatically opposed it.

Although Californians clearly support equal rights for homosexuals, according to this poll, there does not seem to be an outcry for additional laws to protect those rights. People were divided about evenly on the question of whether present “civil rights laws for gays and lesbians go too far, don’t go far enough or are just about right.”

More people than not, however, thought there should be additional civil rights laws for women. Women particularly thought this.

Wilson does not have a strong image as a champion of civil rights, according to this poll. There was a little difference between the numbers of people who felt he “doesn’t care enough about civil rights” and those who thought he “cares about the right amount.”

But the new governor has much bigger problems than the job discrimination bill and his civil rights image, the poll showed. Californians seem to be restless politically, with six in 10 saying “things in California are seriously off on the wrong track.” Fewer than three in 10 believe “things are generally going in the right direction.”

The “wrong track” pessimism covers the ideological landscape, with majorities of conservatives, moderates and liberals all holding this attitude.

Asked to specify what they consider to be California’s most important problems, those interviewed cited crime and drugs, the economy, education, and the environment and growth.

Virtually nobody mentioned gay rights. And less than half the people said they had been closely “following the controversy” over the Friedman bill.

Wilson’s job rating--39% approval, 46% disapproval--is much worse than former Gov. George Deukmejian’s at a comparable point in Deukmejian’s first term. In October, 1983, The Times Poll found 52% of Californians approving of Deukmejian’s job performance and only 37% disapproving.

Like Wilson, Deukmejian had just come through a major budget crisis. But Deukmejian did not have to impose a general tax increase during his first year in office. Of the people who reported voting for Wilson, one-third said they now disapprove of his performance.

When people who disapprove of Wilson were asked to specify why, 42% cited tax hikes or spending cuts or the budget agreement generally.

Also, 17% cited the governor’s veto of the gay-rights bill as a reason for disapproving of him. And 13% mentioned his efforts to cut education funding.

The political harm to Wilson of the tax and spending agreements also was shown in another way. When asked how the governor’s decisions on taxes affected their attitudes toward him, 40% said it made them “less favorable.” Only 9% said more favorable. Similarly, 44% reacted less favorably because of Wilson’s spending cuts. Just 14% reacted more favorably.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 1,042 adult Californians statewide, by telephone, Oct. 2 and 3. Telephone numbers were selected from a list of all telephone exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that households with unlisted and listed telephone numbers had an opportunity to be contacted. Interviews were conducted in either English or Spanish. Results were adjusted slightly to conform with census figures on variables such as sex, race and national origin, age, education and household size. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the total sample is plus or minus three percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin is somewhat higher.

The Los Angeles Times Poll

The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 1,042 adult Californians, Wednesday, Oct. 2 and Thursday, Oct. 3. Californians Divided on Who Needs More Civil Rights

* Do you think civil rights laws for the following groups go too far, not far enough, or are just about right?

NOT FAR JUST TOO FAR ENOUGH ABOUT RIGHT Racial and ethnic 22% 28 40 minorities Women 9% 37 48 Gays and lesbians 29% 27 32

They Also Split Over Wilson Veto of the Gay Jobs Bias Bill

* Do you approve or disapprove of Wilson’s decision to veto the bill barring job discrimination against homosexuals?

APPROVE DISAPPROVE VETO VETO All Californians 40% 46 Self-described Party I.D. Democrats 25% 60 Independents 39% 43 Republicans 57% 30 Political Ideology Liberals 23% 65 Moderates 38% 44 Conservatives 61% 28

Effect of Wilson’s Veto of the Gay-Rights Bill on His Image

* Has Wilson’s veto of the gay-rights bill (AB 101) made you more favorable toward him, less favorable toward him or hasn’t it had much effect?

MORE LESS NO FAVORABLE FAVORABLE EFFECT All Californians 10% 30 56 Democrats 5% 37 55 Independents 10% 33 52 Republicans 23% 18 57 Liberals 6% 47 46 Moderates 6% 26 64 Conservatives 22% 18 58

Effect on Wilson’s Image If He Had Signed the Gay-Rights Bill

* If Wilson had signed the gay-rights bill, would that have made you more favorable toward him, less favorable toward him or wouldn’t that have had much effect?

MORE LESS NO FAVORABLE FAVORABLE EFFECT All Californians 20% 20 55 Democrats 26% 12 58 Independents 21% 25 51 Republicans 12% 30 52 Liberals 37% 12 49 Moderates 17% 16 62 Conservatives 12% 35 50

Political Power in California: Gays vs. the Extreme Right

* Do you think (gays and lesbians/extreme conservatives) have too little, the right amount or too much political power in California?

TOO RIGHT TOO LITTLE AMOUNT MUCH Gays And Lesbians 23% 36 28 Extreme Conservatives 14% 31 43

Attitudes Toward Gay and Lesbian Rights Movement

* Do you support or oppose the gay and lesbian rights movement in California?

Support strongly: 13%

Support somewhat: 31

Oppose somewhat: 20

Oppose strongly: 22

Don’t know: 14

* Do you think marches and rallies by gay and lesbian activists:

Help the gay-rights cause: 23%

Hurt the gay-rights cause: 54

Have little effect on gay-rights cause: 17

Don’t know: 6

NOTE: Some percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding and “don’t know” responses.