California’s Future: More to Come : Growth: The exodus from the state will be overtaken by newcomers; we must invest in them as the dream is renewed.

A new round of California-bashing is feeding on itself. A false kind of imagery is fueling it--Californians bidding the state farewell as people in other states sour on the prospect of pursuing their future here. Are we witnessing the end of the California Dream? Probably not, but a new chapter of the future has begun to unfold.

California definitely is not sinking into demographic stagnation. Large numbers of people are eager--not reluctant--to come here. Each month, nearly 54,000 move into California from some other state; simultaneously, 43,000 others leave. The state gains roughly 11,000 in a typical month--350 newcomers per day--from somewhere else in this nation.

Then there’s the rest of the world. By the year 2005, 8 million more people will have crowded into the state, according to projections by the Department of Finance--that’s 30% more Californians. The U.S. population will increase only one-third as fast. The demographic forces driving that growth are familiar. California has long been a favorite destination for migrants seeking opportunities. Many Californians today are the native-born descendants of forebears who were ambitious enough to move here.

Future growth remains intertwined with people’s success in realizing their opportunities. The sense of promise attached to “moving on” is a peculiarly American legacy. For any person of any station in life, that legacy offers an alluring frontier of the mind--an abiding vision of some other place where the past can be discounted and the future shaped at will. Long ago, the promise embodied in that legacy induced movement for a self-selected few. Their movement kept the promise alive for all.

That legacy is going global. Once, newcomers to California originated in Texas, Oklahoma and other states. Now many come from Latin America, Asia and other continents. The 1990 Census showed that Californians include two of every five Asians nationwide; one of every three Latinos, and half of all Southeast Asian refugees. Those figures include the majority of the 1.4 million Filipinos and the 90,000 Vietnamese Hmong who came to America and made California their home.

Californians account for 54% of the several million non-citizens nationwide applying under the amnesty program to legalize their status.

Ties of kinship will inevitably reinforce and perpetuate California’s global allure to people from other places, channeling even more growth to the state. California contains barely one-eighth of the U.S. population, but it will absorb nearly three-eighths of the nation’s population growth over the next 15 years. In fact, just three counties--San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego--collectively will absorb 11% of all growth nationwide.

The incoming millions will need more streets, utility connections and waste-treatment plants. They will further burden the environment. Their children will need schools. California will have to expand its infrastructure if it is to manage those needs and burdens.

The economic growth to finance that expansion has to flow from the productivity of Californians as workers. The state’s future therefore hinges on investing in future Californians--and the most enduring aspect of California’s demographic future is creeping in on tiny feet of various colors. Fully 57% of current births are to Latino, Asian and black women.

With an abundance of people, the quality and productivity of its future work force will determine the vitality of the California economy tomorrow. Enhancing the capabilities of young Californians today can make a California next century that works.