Definition of Drought’s End Is Clouded : Resources: Experts point to rainfall and ground-water levels. And some say the ongoing growth may have to be curbed.

First came the Miracle March of 1991 when it rained buckets on drought-stricken California.

Then came more cloudbursts in December, back-to-back rainstorms this month and both short- and long-range forecasts of more rain to come.

But through it all, the state’s water experts caution the public that the drought that began in 1986 is far from over.

The experts’ caution begs the question: Just what will it take for them to call off the drought?

The answer is anything but clear-cut because the experts themselves disagree. The issue is equally cloudy for Ventura County and the entire state.

Some say it will not be over until enough rain falls to make up for the past five years--a deficit of about 30 inches in Ventura County and more than twice that statewide--or until enough snow piles up in the mountains to make a solid pack for the spring runoff.

Others, including the state’s chief hydrologist, say the truest measure of a return to normalcy would be full reservoirs around the state and ground-water basins that are restored to pre-drought levels.

But because of an ever-increasing demand and a finite supply, others say those pre-drought conditions are gone forever, and even a downpour of biblical proportions could not bring them back.

William Minger, a Ventura County hydrologist, said the drought boils down to “a matter of the demand surpassing the supply.”

“With the population growing all the time, you could say the drought will never be over,” he said.

“The drought is just a way of life forever now,” added Glen Luscombe, another county hydrologist.

And hydrologist LaVern Hoffman entered the debate with the thought that some people might not say it’s over until “people stop having babies.”

Lowell Preston, manager of the county Water Resources Department, said the question is irrelevant in 1992.

“It doesn’t even matter when the drought is over because we have to remember that we live in a desert,” Preston said. “We run in cycles that are dry and rainy. And the next time we have a dry cycle--and we will--it will be worse than this one because we will have more people.”

In the final analysis, many experts say, whether the drought is over or ongoing, deepening or easing, depends more than anything on a person’s perspective.

Northern California, for instance, has received only 65% of normal rainfall this year and finished last year with the same average. Since 1986, the state has averaged only about 75% of normal.

Reservoirs up north--which also supply the water needs for much of Southern California, including 450,000 people in eastern and central Ventura County--are only 60% full.

And the snowpack that usually produces rushing creeks and topped-off reservoirs in spring is not very promising so far, said Maurice Roos, the chief hydrologist for the state Department of Water Resources.

“Statewide, the drought is definitely not over,” he said.

Because three-quarters of the runoff that feeds the state’s system of canals and reservoirs comes from areas north of Sacramento, Roos said, the so-called Sacramento River Index is a good measurement of the state’s condition.

That index, which includes monitors from eight stations in the northern Sierra Nevada, was at a record low of 20% of normal before last March. The index bounced back to 60% of normal for the year at the end of March and remains at the same place so far this year, he said.

“Hopefully, it will pick up,” he said. “In a normal year, the index gets about 50 inches. We should have about 20 inches for this time of year and so far we’ve had about 12.”

But Roos said recent storms in Southern California, combined with last March’s downpours, could put a much different face on the drought picture for smaller counties or cities in the southern part of the state.

“The drought could be over in some local areas,” he said.

Even for an area as small as Ventura County, it is difficult to make a blanket statement because of the diverse geography and weather conditions, said Supervisor John K. Flynn, who has served as co-chairman of a statewide water committee.

“It really depends on where you are,” Flynn said. “We have cities that depend completely on state water that are in desperate situations. But in other parts of the county, like the Santa Clara River Valley, the rain has done great things.”

Imported water, which supplies some or all of the water for three-quarters of the county’s 669,000 residents--in the cities of Moorpark, Simi Valley, Thousand Oaks, Oxnard and Camarillo--has been cut back by 30%, and cuts could become more severe if Northern California does not receive more rain, authorities say.

But imported water accounts for only one-quarter of the total water used in Ventura County. The remainder comes from local reservoirs and ground water.

March storms that dropped 12 inches at the County Government Center and 14 inches in Santa Paula brought season rainfall totals around the county to above-normal at the end of the rainy season. And since the present rainy season began Oct. 1, storms have also brought rainfall to normal levels in the county for the time of year.

The shallow underground basins in the Ojai, Santa Clara River and Ventura River valleys respond quickly to rainfall, making their short-term supply picture much brighter for now, county ground-water hydrologist John Turner said.

For those areas, the drought could be over for now, he said. But in other areas, like the Oxnard Plain, the rainfall deficit of 29 inches from 1986 to 1990 plays a much bigger role.

On the Oxnard Plain, where the deep Fox Canyon Aquifer takes years to respond to additional rainfall and where ground-water pumping continues to far outstrip replenishment, the drought may never be over, Turner said.

Decades of over-pumping have allowed seawater to intrude into the Fox Canyon Aquifer and at least two other important underground pools in Ventura County, permanently damaging the resource, he said.

“The drought will be over when the basins are restored and everything is back to normal,” said Turner, the county’s recognized authority on ground water. “It took millions of years to flush the seawater out of the Fox Canyon. So for all practical purposes, we can say it will never be restored.”

The Fox Canyon Aquifer supplies water to hundreds of growers and supplements supplies for the cities of Oxnard, Camarillo and Ventura.

The whole drought question is confounded by the word’s double definition. Meteorologists say a drought is a prolonged period of dry weather, without regard for people’s needs. But the dictionary--as well as those in the business of delivering water--also defines drought as an extended shortage or deficiency.

Preston, the county’s head of water resources, said the real question that must be addressed is how to increase the supply for Southern California and Ventura County.

Increasing the county’s ability to receive more imported water from Northern California may not help during the next dry cycle because that supply will be reduced as well, he said.

Conservation and reclamation, two important components to stretching the supply, are only partial answers, he said.

“Unless we can come up with desalination facilities that will supply us the next time it doesn’t rain, we’ll never be out of the drought,” Preston said.

Rainfall Totals

For Ventura County Government Center, Ventura

Actual Yearly Deficit Cummulative Rain Year Received Normal or Overage Deficit* 1986-87 7.50 16.09 8.59 8.59 87-88 13.22 16.09 2.87 11.46 88-89 8.23 16.09 7.86 19.32 89-90 5.62 16.09 10.47 29.79 90-91 16.92 16.09 +0.83 28.96

Until the fall of 1986, rainfall averaged near-normal levels over the 58 years since records began in 1928. Rain year runs from Oct. 1 through Sept. 30.

Source: Ventura County Flood Control District