POP MUSIC : Grammy Perspectives: Traditional vs. Hip : WHO WILL WIN : The voters will back classic songwriting over the trendy and make it an ‘Unforgettable’ evening for Natalie Cole

Was Natalie Cole’s “Unforgettable” a pleasant trip down memory lane, or a timely reminder to the music industry of the staying power of great songs?

How the Grammy voters answer that question will determine whether Cole merely wins a couple of awards or has the night of her life at the 34th annual Grammy ceremonies on Tuesday.

Cole is vying to become the first performer to win Grammys for best album and best single record in one year since Michael Jackson in 1984, at the peak of “Thriller”-mania. She is nominated for her “Unforgettable” album--a collection of standards made famous by her father, Nat King Cole--and the title track, a duet built around Nat’s original 1951 recording of the song.

The prediction here: Cole will probably have an “Unforgettable” evening.

The only thing that might derail a Cole sweep is if enough members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences decide that “Unforgettable” is essentially an exercise in nostalgia rather than a groundbreaking advance. These voters would probably go along with giving Cole and her dad the Grammy in the new traditional-pop category, but would want to reserve the best-album and best-record awards for artists who are looking forward, not back.

But a larger number of voters are apt to see more meaning in the success of “Unforgettable.” These voters believe that the album’s acceptance--it was No. 1 for five weeks and has sold more than 4 million copies--underscores a hunger for classic pop songwriting in an era dominated by trend-conscious rap, metal and dance music. They will want to give “Unforgettable” a clean sweep to second the message sent by record buyers that the industry needs more songs of lasting, timeless quality.

It’s time to dig out the crystal ball and tune in on Tuesday’s event at Radio City Music Hall in New York. The show will air locally on KCBS Channel 2 at 8 p.m.

Record of the Year: The nominees are the Coles’ “Unforgettable,” Amy Grant’s “Baby Baby,” Bonnie Raitt’s “Something to Talk About,” R.E.M.’s “Losing My Religion” and Bryan Adams’ “(Everything I Do) I Do It for You.”

Adams’ smash from “Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves” was the best-selling single since “We Are the World” in 1985, but it has little chance of hitting the bull’s-eye here.

Grant’s catchy but unremarkable “Baby Baby” has a slightly better chance, but, her core fans will vote for Cole.

Raitt’s “Something to Talk About” could take the prize: As the first Top 40 hit of Raitt’s 20-year career, it gave this much-admired artist an overdue breakthrough on pop radio. But it wasn’t nominated for song of the year, and it didn’t make as strong an impression as the other nominees.

R.E.M.’s “Losing My Religion” could also win, despite its dark tone. Remember: The Eagles’ biting “Hotel California” was the champ in 1978. But “Hotel” was a No. 1 hit and the title song from one of the biggest albums of the era. And the Eagles didn’t have to go up against Nat King Cole.

Which leaves the “Unforgettable” duet, credited to father and daughter. Many voters will check this off as a way of honoring Nat King Cole. Without Nat--these voters might well say--Natalie’s album would have been, well, “Inconceivable.”

Album of the Year: The nominees are Cole’s “Unforgettable,” Grant’s “Heart in Motion,” Raitt’s “Luck of the Draw,” R.E.M.’s “Out of Time” and Paul Simon’s “The Rhythm of the Saints.”

Grant’s chances of winning here are nil. Again, the conservative, pop-minded members who like her are certain to vote for Cole.

A Simon victory can’t be ruled out. He won this award in 1987 with his last studio album, “Graceland,” and he appeals to a wide range of voters. But no artist has won with back-to-back albums since Stevie Wonder in the mid-’70s. And “The Rhythm of the Saints” paled next to “Graceland.”

Raitt has a slightly better chance: Everybody likes her, and “Luck of the Draw” was a strong follow-up to the Grammy-winning “Nick of Time.” But who’s going to vote for her? Hip voters will go for R.E.M.; pop traditionalists will rally behind Cole.

R.E.M. is hoping to follow U2 into the winner’s circle, but it’s not likely. None of the songs on R.E.M.’s album had the import and universality of “I Still Haven’t Found What I’m Looking For,” the standout track from U2’s “The Joshua Tree.”

That leaves Cole’s “Unforgettable” as the probable winner. The album appeals most strongly to older, conservative voters, but it will also hold its own with middle-of-the-road “swing” voters. This mirrors the album’s success with a broad coalition of pop, jazz, R&B; and adult contemporary fans.

Song of the Year: The nominees for this songwriter’s award are “Baby Baby” by Grant and Keith Thomas; “(Everything I Do) I Do It for You” by Adams, Robert John (Mutt) Lange and Michael Kamen; “Losing My Religion” by R.E.M.’s Bill Berry, Peter Buck, Mike Mills and Michael Stipe; “Unforgettable” by Irving Gordon, and “Walking in Memphis” by Marc Cohn.

The likely winner: “Unforgettable,” which Gordon wrote in 1950. The 75-year-old songwriter is expected to be on hand Tuesday.

New Artist: The nominees are Cohn, Boyz II Men, C+C Music Factory, Color Me Badd and Seal. The recent controversy over vocal credits on C+C Music Factory’s breakthrough hit, “Gonna Make You Sweat,” certainly didn’t help the group’s chances. The last thing the academy wants is another Milli Vanilli-like scandal. But C+C masterminds Robert Clivilles and David Cole are no Rob and Fab. They’re well known in the industry for producing and writing hits for such performers as Mariah Carey. As a result, the fracas won’t necessarily torpedo C+C’s chances. And label politics may help: Industry giant Sony Music will be 100% behind C+C--its only act in the race--while the archrival Warner/Elektra/Atlantic group will be forced to divide its attention among three acts.

It’s possible that the three pop-R&B; hit machines--C+C, Boyz II Men and Color Me Badd--will split the Top 40-minded votes, allowing the critically admired Seal or Cohn to squeeze through. Since they’re evenly matched, we’re going to stick with C+C Music Factory.

Best Pop Vocal Performance, Female: Grant will split the older, conservative vote with Carey, who won last year, and Whitney Houston, the winner in 1986 and 1988. This will enable Raitt to win in this category for the second time in three years. Also nominated: Oleta Adams.

Pop Male: It’s a two-man race between Bryan Adams and Michael Bolton, the winner two years ago. If Bolton had been nominated for the frisky “Love Is a Wonderful Thing” instead of his umpteenth remake of an R&B; classic--this time it’s “When a Man Loves a Woman”--he’d have probably won. As it is, Adams is headed for his first Grammy with “(Everything I Do) I Do It for You.” Also nominated: Seal, Cohn, George Michael, Aaron Neville.

Pop Duo or Group: Though R.E.M. will probably be shut out in the top categories, it won’t go home empty-handed. The group is a cinch to win here for “Losing My Religion.” Also nominated: the Commitments, Extreme, Jesus Jones, Wilson Phillips.

Traditional-Pop Performance: One word: “Unforgettable.” Also nominated: Harry Connick Jr., Johnny Mathis, Diane Schuur, Barbra Streisand.

Rock Solo: Raitt was the only woman to make the mixed-gender finals. Now watch her beat the big boys to take the award for “Luck of the Draw.” Also nominated: Bryan Adams, Bob Seger, Robbie Robertson, Eric Clapton, John Mellencamp.

Rock Duo or Group: Raitt is entered here too, for a duet with Delbert McClinton. But as an ongoing group, R.E.M. may stand a better chance with its single “Radio Song.” That’s two Grammys for the guys from Athens, Ga. Also nominated: Jane’s Addiction, Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers, Queensryche.

Hard Rock: Guns N’ Roses’ “Use Your Illusion I” should win easily. The band had a bigger impact last year than the three other nominees (Van Halen, Alice in Chains, AC/DC) combined.

Metal: Metallica is a shoo-in to win for the third year in a row with its quadruple-platinum album “Metallica.” Also nominated: Anthrax, Soundgarden, Megadeth, Motorhead.

Alternative: R.E.M. will probably collect its third Grammy of the night with “Out of Time,” though Nirvana’s current smash, “Nevermind,” could stage an upset. Also nominated: Jesus Jones, Elvis Costello, Richard Thompson.

R&B; Female: This one is wide open: Perennial winner Anita Baker was on the sidelines last year, and Aretha Franklin--who owned this category until Baker came along--is represented with a critically lambasted album. Our hunch: Lisa Fischer, a Luther Vandross protegee who had a Top 15 hit with “How Can I Ease the Pain,” will nose out Vanessa Williams. Also nominated: Gladys Knight, Patti LaBelle.

R&B; Male: Onetime perennial bridesmaid Luther Vandross will make it to the altar for the second year in a row with “Power of Love.” Also nominated: Peabo Bryson, Stevie Wonder, Teddy Pendergrass, Keith Washington, James Brown.

R&B; Duo or Group: Color Me Badd is the favorite with “I Wanna Sex You Up,” last year’s second-biggest hit single. Also nominated: Franklin & Vandross; Knight, LaBelle & Dionne Warwick; Boyz II Men, Prince & the New Power Generation.

Rap Solo: LL Cool J (“Mama Said Knock You Out”) is apt to KO last year’s winner, Hammer (“Here Comes the Hammer”). Also nominated: Queen Latifah, Monie Love, Ice-T.

Rap Duo or Group: The high-profile D.J. Jazzy Jeff & the Fresh Prince will probably win their second Grammy for “Summertime,” an attractive mix of rap, pop and R&B.; Also nominated: Public Enemy, Salt-N-Pepa, Heavy D. & the Boyz, Naughty by Nature.

Country Female: Mary-Chapin Carpenter’s “Down at the Twist & Shout” was the only one of the five nominees to also be nominated for country song of the year. That’s a tip-off that Carpenter has an edge here. Also nominated: Tanya Tucker, Reba McEntire, Trisha Yearwood, Kathy Mattea.

Country Male: Vince Gill beat mega-seller Garth Brooks at last year’s Grammys and at the Country Music Awards in October. That’s why Gill won’t mind too much when Brooks beats him here. Also nominated: Alan Jackson, Travis Tritt, Billy Dean.

Country Duo or Group: Two words: the Judds (for their finale, “Love Can Build a Bridge”). Also nominated: Kentucky HeadHunters, Alabama, Diamond Rio, Forrester Sisters, Texas Tornados.