TRIPLE CROWN RATINGS

The failure of the important stakes winners--Pine Bluff, Technology, Devil His Due and Pistols And Roses--in the 118th Kentucky Derby might be explained by their not caring for the deep, cuppy track at Churchill Downs. It was the kind of surface that some horses have trouble gripping.

But how do you explain that the horses who did hit the board, immediately behind Lil E. Tee, were Casual Lies at 29-1, Dance Floor at 33-1 and Conte Di Savoya at 21-1?

Casual Lies was 20-1 on the morning line, and his higher odds at post time made no sense. A.P. Indy, who likely would have been second or third choice in the Derby had he not been injured, beat Casual Lies by only two lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. Casual Lies missed second place at Santa Anita by only a neck to Bertrando, who would have been a speed factor in the Derby had he not caught flu.

Casual Lies got sick as well, getting a stomachache the week before the Derby, but he rebounded before the race, and his 1:00 five-furlong workout four days before it was one of the best drills by any of the starters. The workout told Gary Stevens, who had never been on the colt before, that he was a contender for Saturday.

Maybe the bettors at Churchill Downs looked at Casual Lies’ yearling price, $7,500, and decided that such a cheap purchase couldn’t be competitive in the Derby. Maybe, too, they had little respect for Shelley Riley, one of the few woman trainers to saddle a horse in the Derby.

It’s happened before. In 1985, Patti Johnson brought Fast Account to the Derby from California, and he went off at 92-1. Fast Account had not won during the year, but Skywalker had beaten him by only a nose in the Santa Anita Derby, and Fast Account had run second to Creme Fraiche, beaten by only half a length, in the Derby Trial at Churchill.

When Fritz Hawn, who bred and owned Fast Account, looked at the Derby tote board, he couldn’t believe his horse’s price.

“I’m not the kind of guy who would run a 92-1 horse in the Derby,” Hawn said. “But then this horse doesn’t have any business being that high.”

Fast Account finished fourth, missing third by a neck against Chief’s Crown, the Derby favorite.

On Sunday, Riley was so hoarse she could barely talk. Watching the race, she was overcome by Casual Lies’ determination through the stretch and collapsed in her box.

“She was OK, but for a second I thought she was having a heart attack,” said Jim Riley, the trainer’s husband and stable assistant.

Second in the Hollywood Futurity to A.P. Indy, Dance Floor began his 3-year-old season with an easy victory in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Then his standing plummeted. He ran second at 4-5 to Technology in the Florida Derby, and was fourth as the 6-5 favorite in the Blue Grass that was won by Pistols And Roses.

In short, Dance Floor looked like a horse who was going the wrong way fast. Trainer Wayne Lukas gives some credence to the second-time-on-Lasix theory, and he’s not ruling that out as the reason Dance Floor was third in the Derby.

In the Florida Derby, Dance Floor bled from the lungs. In the Blue Grass, he qualified for Lasix, and last Saturday he was treated with the anti- bleeding medication for the second time.

“There could be something to it,” Lukas said. “The first time a horse is treated, he doesn’t know it. He still remembers the horror of what happened inside him the first time, and he doesn’t have any confidence. But after he’s run a race without bleeding, his confidence starts to come back because something has told him that he’s not going to bleed again.”

Conte Di Savoya, fourth in the Derby and 6 1/4 lengths behind Lil E. Tee, still has only one victory--against maidens--in 11 starts, but he was a near-miss second to Pistols And Roses in the Blue Grass, and trainer LeRoy Jolley is considering the Preakness, the next Triple Crown race, at Pimlico on May 16. The Belmont Stakes, which wraps up the series, will be in New York on June 6.

Form could suffer among the 3-year-olds all year long. What happened at Churchill Downs may not relate to what develops at Pimlico. The Las Vegas race books are famous for “proposition” bets; at one time, before the post-position draw, a bettor could get 75-1 that a horse from the auxiliary gate wouldn’t win the Derby. The next bet might be that the first four in the Derby won’t be among the first four in the Preakness.

Advisory panel for The Times’ Triple Crown Ratings: Lenny Hale, vice president for racing at Aqueduct, Belmont Park and Saratoga; Frank (Jimmy) Kilroe, director of racing emeritus at Santa Anita; and Tommy Trotter, racing secretary at Hialeah.

TRIPLE CROWN RATINGS

Horse S 1 2 3 Career Earnings 1. Lil E. Tee 9 5 3 1 $1,177,106 2. Casual Lies 10 5 1 2 590,628 3. A.P. Indy 6 5 0 0 722,555 4. Dance Floor 12 4 4 1 713,859 5. Pine Bluff 11 5 1 2 679,988 6. Arazi 10 8 1 0 1,117,608 7. Conte Di Savoya 11 1 3 1 164,368 8. Technology 7 4 1 1 464,963 9. Devil His Due 7 4 1 0 432,725 10. Pistols And Roses 11 6 2 2 821,046