BASEBALL / ROSS NEWHAN : Valentine’s Future Is Not Tied to That of Lasorda

The blueprint has become muddled. Or more likely, it was an illusion from the start.

Bobby Valentine, the theory went, would leave a successful career as manager of the Texas Rangers to return to the Dodgers, his original organization, as successor to Manager Tom Lasorda, who would move into the front office and personally pick Valentine, one of his prodigals in a group that included Ron Cey, Steve Garvey, Tom Paciorek, Bill Buckner, Joe Ferguson and others.

Now?

--Valentine was fired Thursday as manager of the Rangers. The only certainty about his managerial future is that it will be with the two restaurants that carry his name in the Arlington, Tex., area.

--Bill Russell, in his first year as the Albuquerque manager, and scout Phil Regan are considered the leading candidates to replace Lasorda. It would be a surprise, providing Fred Claire remains in a position of authority and retains a vote, if Russell or Regan didn’t succeed Lasorda.

--The contract extension Lasorda received this year runs through 1993, but the aim was strictly to remove his lame-duck status as an issue in 1992. There is no guarantee he will manage the Dodgers in ’93.

Could he be fired? Never.

Could he be pushed upstairs at some point? Possibly.

Would he want that? Depends when it happens and in what role, but he may resist if it’s a subordinate position.

Would a blue blood consider going elsewhere to manage?

Certainly, and while this is a longshot, who would be better at helping get the fledgling Florida Marlins started than a Spanish-speaking showman with Lasorda’s motivational skills?

Could a change be likely at the end of this season?

Well, Claire and owner Peter O’Malley may see history repeating and feel the time is right. Walter Alston had managed for 23 years. The Dodgers were in transition. Many of the young players Lasorda had managed in the minors were established in the majors and aching for a more aggressive and motivational leadership. Lasorda’s promotion from the third base coaching box had an immediate impact on morale, helping produce the pennants of 1977 and ’78.

No one is aching now. No one is suggesting that Lasorda has lost any enthusiasm or energy.

He is, however, in his 16th year as manager. The Dodgers are in transition as they restore a reliance on the farm system, and Russell, like Lasorda before him, is out developing a relationship with some of the young players who are expected to be playing in the majors soon.

Is it certain that Russell will come with them? No.

Is it certain the Dodgers will make a managerial change at the end of the ’92 season? No.

Is anything certain? Never, but this much seems bankable: Bobby Valentine will not succeed Tom Lasorda as Dodger manager.

FIRING LINE

In the endless realm of statistics, the bright and gregarious Valentine managed more games with one team, 1,186, without winning a division or league title than any manager this century.

The rap: He was too emotional, giving a powerful team dominated by talented and free-lancing players little breathing room; he spent little time on defense; he worked pitchers into the ground.

Since the start of the 1989 season, the Rangers have had 30 pitchers on the disabled list, compared to six for the Minnesota Twins. This year’s team has used 21 pitchers, leads the American League in unearned runs and has been handicapped by the season-long slump of Rafael Palmeiro and the prolonged absences of catalytic Julio Franco, now on the DL for the third time.

Asked in the wake of his firing if he ever felt he had a team good enough to win, Valentine said: “Obviously not, and there’s another side to that coin. I don’t think anybody could have done a better job than I did, and a whole lot of people would have done worse.”

It was long suspected that General Manager Tom Grieve, one of Valentine’s closest friends, would find a way to protect him from a firing, but Valentine said this went above Grieve to second-year club President Tom Schieffer, a partner in the ownership group headed by George W. Bush.

“Tom Schieffer likes to do things his own way,” Valentine said. “Before too much longer he’ll have his signature on the uniforms, the stadium and everything else, because that’s the way he likes to do it.”

Bitter?

“I love this team,” Valentine said. “I’m not ready to walk away--not with my heart, my mind, my talent. This is my team.”

HOT STUFF

Another All-Star game in the West Coast twilight. Pretty exciting.

This will be the eighth, including the 1979 indoor affair at the Kingdome in Seattle.

In the six outdoor games, baseball’s best hitters have produced 33 runs, an average of 5.5 per game.

Part of it is the shadows. Part of it, pardon the cliche, is that good pitching does beat good hitting. In the last eight All-Star games, regardless of where they have been played or when they have started, the winning team has scored three runs or fewer six times.

Part of it, too, is that the fans have many of the wrong players playing most of the innings as starters. The hottest first-half hitters are often on the bench until the late innings or are not in attendance at all, the result of the fan vote, the ridiculous roster limit and/or the need to have one player from every team.

Among this year’s mistakes by the fans: Wade Boggs (.266), Sandy Alomar Jr. (.244) and Benito Santiago (.250 and on the disabled list from May 30 through Friday because of a broken finger).

The way it should be, with fans’ choice first:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

* Catcher--Santiago. Should be Darren Daulton.

* First base--Fred McGriff. Agree.

* Second base--Ryne Sandberg. Should be Delino DeShields, who isn’t even on the roster.

* Shortstop--Ozzie Smith. Close, but should be Tony Fernandez.

* Third base--Terry Pendleton. Close, but should be Gary Sheffield.

* Outfield--Barry Bonds, Tony Gwynn and Andy Van Slyke. Not bad, though a case could be made for Larry Walker’s power over Gwynn’s average and/or Bonds recent inactivity.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

* Catcher--Sandy Alomar Jr. Should be Mickey Tettleton, who isn’t even on the roster.

* First base--Mark McGwire. Agree.

* Second base--Roberto Alomar. Agree.

* Shortstop--Cal Ripken Jr. Agree.

* Third base--Wade Boggs. Should be Edgar Martinez or Travis Fryman.

* Outfield--Kirby Puckett, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jose Canseco. Should be Puckett, Joe Carter and Brady Anderson, with a nod to Albert Belle.

One man’s view of the non-All-Star All-Stars (combined major leagues):

Catcher--Tettleton; First base--Fielder; Second base--DeShields; Shortstop--Pat Listach; Third base--Dave Hollins; Outfield--Juan Gonzalez, Dave Winfield and Belle--or Bell, as in George.

GEOGRAPHY LESSON

Why were the Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds put in the National League West to start with, leaving the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cards in the East?

More politics.

It happened in 1969, when the league went to 12 teams, with the addition of the Montreal Expos and San Diego Padres.

“The problem,” recalled then-NL President Chub Feeney, “is that we had to go to division play (from a competitive standpoint), and no one really wanted it. Everyone wanted a straight-up 12-team league.

“The Phillies and Mets, in particular, didn’t want to go to division (play) at the risk of losing games with established rivals like the Dodgers and Giants, so it took compromise.

“The Cubs and Cardinals were willing to go to either division, and the Mets and Phillies were willing to take them as equally established rivals (compared to the Dodgers and Giants). Atlanta and Cincinnati were good guys about it and accepted going to the West.

“It was an obviously illogical arrangement, but it’s worked out well for a lot of years.”

Feeney retired in 1986 after 17 years as league president. He is still an NL loyalist when discussing realignment and the suit that the Chicago Cubs have brought against Commissioner Fay Vincent for ordering it.

“My reaction is that realignment is the logical thing to do, but I don’t think any commissioner should override the league constitution,” Feeney said. “I don’t consider that to be in the best interest of baseball.”

THE WEST’S BEST

The schedule alone presents a formidable challenge for anyone pursuing Cincinnati in the NL West. The Reds play 44 of their 76 second-half games at home, where they are 26-10.

“We have reason to be optimistic but not overconfident,” General Manager Bob Quinn said. “I keep remembering that Atlanta was 9 1/2 games out at the All-Star break last year (and eventually caught the Dodgers to win the West).”

The Reds may not have a lock on the West title yet, but Quinn keeps adding to his credentials as the NL’s leading executive-of-the-year candidate.

Having acquired Greg Swindell, Tim Belcher, Bip Roberts, Dave Martinez, Scott Ruskin and Scott Bankhead before the season, Quinn traded outfielder Billy Hatcher to the Boston Red Sox the other day for pitcher Tom Bolton, who should help fill the gap created by Tom Browning’s season-ending knee injury.

Quinn singled out Roberts for having provided the spark that Hatcher did during the Reds’ championship season of 1990.

“He’s the consummate leadoff hitter, and his work ethic has sent a message to the other players,” Quinn said.