O.C. Republican Group to Lead Jump to Clinton

Even as Orange County delegates cheered on President Bush at the GOP convention, several prominent Republicans sitting out the convocation were poised Thursday to dramatically abandon him in favor of Democratic challenger Bill Clinton.

County Supervisor Harriett M. Wieder, developer Kathryn Thompson and Western Digital Chairman Roger W. Johnson were among seven pro-Clinton Republicans whose defections were to be revealed today at a press conference in Newport Beach, according to Clinton’s statewide campaign director, John Emerson.

The event is part of an 18-state announcement of similar switches to Clinton, with California and Orange County serving as the centerpieces, Clinton’s aides said. The group will form the basis of a “Republicans for Clinton” effort, campaign officials said.

If the defections occur, they could add a new wrinkle to the high-stakes fight for Orange County, which is counted on by GOP strategists to provide a hefty margin of victory to offset strong Democratic Party pluralities in Los Angeles and San Francisco. An independent poll by Santa Monica-based Fairbank, Maulin & Associates in July found Clinton leading Bush in Orange County, 43% to 22%.

Johnson, the chief executive officer of a Fortune 500 company, tried to maintain the suspense until today’s media event at the posh Pacific Club by saying: “We’ll wait and hear the President’s speech.” Thompson, a member of Bush’s “Team 100” club of high-rollers, and Wieder were unavailable, but political associates said both women also wanted to hear the President before casting him aside.

Thompson and Johnson have indicated their willingness to back Clinton for several months. They have hosted two visits by the Arkansas governor despite stiff criticism from their GOP friends and associates.

For Wieder, an abortion-rights supporter whose car sports a pro-choice bumper sticker, a defection is even more symbolic of Bush’s troubles in Orange County, considered one of the most important battlegrounds in the presidential race. While a colleague on the all-Republican County Board of Supervisors, Gaddi H. Vasquez, was giving a convention speech extolling Bush earlier this week, Wieder was quietly preparing to break with the pack.

“We think this shows that Bush is having serious trouble in the breadbasket of Republican votes,” said Clinton spokesman Jay Ziegler.

GOP Executive Director Greg Haskin said the defections don’t signify a major shift of county Republicans to the Clinton camp.

“They were never really aboard in the first place,” Haskin said. “I wouldn’t recognize Roger Johnson if he sat next to me. And Kathryn Thompson may be able to write checks, but this doesn’t translate into votes. This is not going to change the way the grass roots work in Orange County.” What counts, he said, are people willing to staff banks of telephones and walk precincts.

But GOP political strategist Eileen Padberg was less sanguine. “It definitely hurts in Orange County,” said Padberg. “Anytime the press focuses on defections from a sitting President, it doesn’t help.”

GOP strategists say Orange County traditionally must produce a 200,000-vote margin for a Republican to offset the usual Democratic pluralities in Los Angeles and San Francisco. In 1988, Bush outpolled Democrat Michael S. Dukakis 586,230 to 269,013. That was virtually the margin by which he carried the state.

In Houston, delegates at the convention generally took the news about the defections in stride, saying they suspected they might occur.

“What’s odd here is that Reagan was able to hold this coalition together and Bush is having trouble,” said Brian Bennett, a delegate from Garden Grove and former chief of staff for Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove). “The abortion plank is no different than in 1988. Why didn’t they do this in 1988 or 1984? I think Bush’s perceived weakness and the possibility he may fail in November has given them the political courage to step out.”

Bennett said “the boldest move” would be by Wieder, who has differed with Bush because of his anti-abortion stance. “That has become her determining issue,” Bennett said. “The defection is surprising only to the extent that she would be so public about it.”

“It’ll have no impact whatsoever,” said Tom Reinecke, a Newport Beach attorney and delegate. “It’s just an embarrassment for them. If they want a change, they should come out and change Congress, not the President.”

Dornan, a conservative and ardent Bush supporter, agreed, calling the joint announcement “a micro, micro, micro defection. It’ll have no impact.”

“It didn’t surprise me at all,” Dornan said. “They were damaged goods, and they’re joining Clinton, who is also damaged goods.”

Organizing the defections, The Times has learned, is veteran GOP campaign consultant and advertising executive Robert Nelson--a former Padberg associate and onetime aide to county Supervisor Thomas F. Riley, a staunch Bush supporter.

Nelson, a veteran of campaigns both inside and outside California, declined to comment on his role Thursday but said it would become clearer at today’s press conference. Clinton aides, however, were referring other would-be defectors to Nelson, maps to the news conference were faxed from Nelson’s office, and two Republican activists who requested anonymity said Nelson had unsuccessfully sought to recruit them for the Clinton effort.

Other defectors listed by the Clinton camp are Dana Point City Councilwoman Judy Curreri, California Teachers Assn. President Del Weber, Republicans for Choice organizer Anita Mangles and California Republican League President Harry Jeffrey. They could not be reached for comment--part of an agreement, Clinton’s aides said, to delay explanations for their actions until today.

Teachers’ groups almost uniformly have supported Clinton, even before this week’s GOP convention, while Republicans who favor abortion rights have split. The Republican League, a moderate volunteer group, has been largely dormant in recent years--upstaged by the archconservative California Republican Assembly, a volunteer organization not related to the state Legislature.

The pre-convention polls showing Bush trailing in Orange County and nationwide had many delegates grumpy heading into the convention, but by Thursday night the mood had brightened considerably.

“This convention will bring us together and send us into the streets to get the Republican message across,” said Meredith Khachigian, University of California Board of Regents president and a delegate from San Clemente. “People want a President they can trust, someone with integrity. I don’t think they see that in Bill Clinton.”

“I think my convictions have been reaffirmed,” said Victoria Jaffee, a former Mission Viejo councilwoman. “I think there will be a bounce. Long term it’s still going to be a difficult campaign. How’s it going to play in Placentia? How’s it going to play across America? I think it’s too early too tell.”

Reinecke, son of former Lt. Gov. Ed Reinecke, said he’s confident Bush can do it. “I think when people realize what Bill Clinton is all about, they’ll wake up and smell the coffee,” he said. “This convention basically has been the wake-up call to America, to Orange County and California.”

Thomas A. Fuentes, Orange County Republican Party chairman, said the convention has already paid dividends, prompting a “marvelous” outpouring of offers to donate money and volunteer time to campaigns for the President and other candidates in the county.

“I am very encouraged with the kind of message that has been projected in this convention and the magnificent response we have received,” Fuentes said. “I think that, come November, the loyalties of Orange County voters will be just as consistent as they’ve always been, and that means a sweeping Republican victory in America’s most Republican county.”

Fuentes said he has the numbers to prove it. In 1988, the party held a 188,000-person advantage in voter registration, but this year that margin is up to 230,000 voters. Barring major defections, that is just about enough to offset the expected strong Democratic showing elsewhere in California, where 54 electoral votes--the most of any state--are at stake. “Despite all the polls and hoopla, that’s really where it’s at come Election Day,” Fuentes said.

Although some Republicans have complained about a tilt to the political right by the party, but many Orange County delegates said they felt the GOP had retained the “big tent” philosophy of accepting a variety of beliefs.

“If anything, I think people here have been more willing to accept differences. They’re becoming more realistic,” Jaffee said. “If you start excluding one group, then there’s a next one and a next one and pretty soon every one is excluded.”

Bailey reported from Houston and Perlman from Orange County.