PRO FOOTBALL / BOB OATES : Johnson Has the Weapons to Be Confident

Sports fans have snickered for years over the gloomy predictions of football coaches, from Amos Alonzo Stagg of Chicago to Lou Holtz of Notre Dame.

In a long-ago Big Ten era, when Stagg’s Chicago team was often the class of the conference, and Purdue the doormat, the dominant headline in the Chicago Tribune once read: “Stagg Fears Purdue.”

Holtz fears everybody.

Into such a world, bringing some fresh air, comes Jimmy Johnson, coach of the Dallas Cowboys, the NFC East’s best team so far and possibly the NFL’s best.

When the Cowboys rocked the Super Bowl champion Washington Redskins on opening day, 23-10, Johnson said: “We’re better than that. I think we can be much better.”

After Sunday’s 17-10 conquest of the Kansas City Chiefs, he said: “I think we have a Super Bowl team.”

He is confident that the Cowboys will defeat the Raiders at the Coliseum on Sunday, and he is supported by evidence that suggests Johnson’s players are better than Art Shell’s players.

In Seattle, the Raiders last Sunday had enough defense for Chris Warren and Stan Gelbaugh--but Chris Warren is no Emmitt Smith and Stan Gelbaugh is no Troy Aikman.

In the opening weeks of the season, the Smith-Aikman one-two punch for Dallas has become about the most effective NFL weapon.

Johnson Fears Raiders? No chance.

Two-point play: The NFC East remains the class of the league, at least at the top. And in a matchup of Eastern powers Sunday, the decisive play was the simplest scoring play in football. During the fourth quarter, the Washington Redskins, en route to a 16-12 victory, gave the Philadelphia Eagles two points.

Leading, 16-3, the Redskins took an intentional safety in the last three minutes instead of punting out of their end zone.

“It was the obvious thing to do,” Coach Joe Gibbs said, although it didn’t seem obvious to everybody.

The arithmetic:

--To overcome a 13-point deficit, 16-3, the Eagles needed two touchdowns, and they could have picked up a cheap one on a blocked punt.

--To overcome an 11-point deficit, 16-5, the Eagles still needed two touchdowns. A touchdown and a field goal wouldn’t do it. But now they had to work for both touchdowns. And time ran out on them.

Coaches who have things like that figured out--Gibbs is one--don’t do their figuring in the tensions of the game’s last two or three minutes. They do it in training camp.

Too much: Are the Miami Dolphins (6-0) heading for another 17-0 season? They’re thinking about it--although it would be 19-0 now in the NFL’s longer-season format.

And they won’t hit 19-0. Not this year.

They expect to run the string to 9-0 against Indianapolis--they play the Colts twice in the next three weeks--and the New York Jets, but after that they can look for big trouble. In five successive weeks, starting Nov. 16, the Dolphins will catch Buffalo, Houston, New Orleans, San Francisco and the Raiders.

They will never get through all of that unscathed.

Power loss: The Detroit Lions (1-5) are still floundering with their new offense. And it was easy to see why Thursday night, when they lost at Minnesota, 31-14:

--They still are trying to play power football with Barry Sanders, who isn’t a power back.

--They are doing exactly what Coach Wayne Fontes said he wanted to do this year when he brought in a new offensive coordinator, Dan Henning, vowing to get more blocking for Sanders. And the new plan is a failure.

Sanders is a sensational broken-field runner, having proved it last year in Detroit’s run-and-shoot, which uses four wide receivers and opens a lot of running room for any ballcarrier.

With that offense, the Lions finished 12-4 and, in the playoffs, destroyed Dallas, 38-6.

In Henning’s offense, which often masses a blocking back and a tight end or two ahead of Sanders, he has trouble getting back to the line of scrimmage. The defense merely masses tacklers ahead of Sanders, too, and cuts him off.

The Detroit game plan against Minnesota didn’t make much sense. Although the Lions have given up the run-and-shoot, they still use four-receiver plays on occasion, alternating them with power plays.

During the first quarter, for example, with Minnesota ahead, 7-0, quarterback Rodney Peete used four-receiver pass plays to lead Detroit to midfield. There, Henning benched two of the receivers, replaced them with a fullback and a tight end and called three Sanders runs. His next call was a punt.

Three plays later, it was 14-0.

The Lions moved the ball in four-receiver formations, but not in power formations. The longest run by Sanders, 11 yards to a touchdown, was on a four-receiver draw play--the play he used last year to get most of his 1,548 yards.

He should be using it more often.

New balance: This isn’t the league it seemed to be as recently as two months ago.

With some unexpected personnel developments, the balance of power has changed:

--At Miami, a new tight end, Keith Jackson, has changed the Dolphin offense. And on defense, players are performing who hadn’t in the past.

--At Philadelphia (4-2), the Eagles have lost Jackson to free agency and others to injury. Their new running back, Herschel Walker, is doing precisely what he did in Minnesota, no more and no less. He still is averaging four yards per carry.

--At Dallas (5-1), the Cowboys have traded for two new defensive starters: end Charles Haley and back Thomas Everett. Haley is about 25% of any defensive team he plays for. He saved Sunday’s game, rushing Kansas City quarterback Dave Krieg into an interception at the Dallas eight-yard line.

--At Washington (4-2), the Redskins have lost two-fifths of their offensive line--Jim Lachey, the league’s No. 1 blocking tackle, and Jeff Bostic, their veteran center--as well as Pro Bowl cornerback Darrell Green to injuries.

--At Buffalo (4-2), injuries to quarterback Jim Kelly, runner Thurman Thomas and others have changed the Bills.

--At Minnesota (5-1), quarterback Rich Gannon has exceeded expectations except his own.

--At San Francisco (6-1), quarterback Steve Young has done the same for the 49ers, who have also found a running back they hadn’t counted on in Ricky Watters, who, as runner and receiver, is precisely what that offense needs.

With the support of Coach George Seifert and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, Young has made it a new offense--and thus the 49ers have changed the most of all.

Quote Department:

--Hall of Famer Raymond Berry, Denver receiver coach, on what it takes to set a record--most passes caught--that was once his and now belongs to the Redskins’ Art Monk: “Durability and being with an organization that’s got it together, including a coach and a quarterback.”

--Hall of Famer John Riggins on football fans: “(They) are an athlete’s backbone. They support him and give him the ability to become sentient with the artist inside.”

--Ron Jaworski on the difference between now and the 1970s, his decade as a Ram quarterback: “When I played, you had the same 11 guys on defense almost every play. It’s difficult for a (1992 quarterback) to keep track of who’s in the game.”

--Jimmy Johnson, Dallas coach, on Alexander Wright, the receiver he traded to the Raiders: “(Wright) didn’t develop as fast as we wanted. (He) worked at it, but not at the level Bill Bates and Russell Maryland work at the game.”