A Demand for Supply at What Price? : Expansion: Rockies and Marlins can go for young players, of which there are few of quality, or spend for free agents.

Awarded the American League’s Los Angeles franchise in December of 1960, Gene Autry likes to say he had everything except bats, balls, players and an organization with which to secure them.

“They at least gave us two months before we had to be in spring training,” Autry adds, sarcastically.

The Florida Marlins and Colorado Rockies, who draft players Nov. 17 and begin National League play, barring a work stoppage, in April, will have had it much better.

--Awarded their franchises last November, they will have had more than a year to organize and scout every player in baseball.

--They are the first expansion teams eligible to draft from both the National and American leagues.

--They are the first to be able to sign players from both the major and minor league free-agent markets and will also be eligible to participate in the Rule V draft of unprotected minor leaguers in December.

--They are the first expansion teams to have participated in every round of the June amateur draft in their first year, and both established a foundation by operating teams in the low minors.

--They are the first to have voting privileges in their first year, although neither will receive a share of the national TV income until a new contract becomes effective in 1994.

Speaking of the Rockies and Marlins and their ability to draft and sign players from a greater number of pools than previous expansion teams, Atlanta Brave General Manager John Schuerholz said:

“I think they have a chance to start off stronger, but I’m not sure what that says. I mean, I think they can be respectable, but I don’t think they can be competitive, primarily because pitching is so hard to get and everyone is sensitive to protecting it.”

Citing the depleted talent, Angel Vice President Whitey Herzog said:

“People can say all they want about the game’s financial trouble, but it comes down to supply and demand. If the talent was there like it used to be, clubs wouldn’t be scrambling to keep players at any cost.

“I’ve spent almost the entire season scouting in the minors, and there’s no more than two or three prospects on any triple-A team, and there just isn’t any pitching.

“I mean, (the Marlins and Rockies) will have a lot of high-salaried, veteran players to choose from, but not a lot of good young players, because no one has an overabundance. They can build competitive teams if they want to pay, but what have they paid already?”

The Marlins and Rockies must make the last of three installments on their $95-million entry fee in December. Both estimate they will have spent another $35 million to $45 million in start-up costs before April’s first pitch.

“The only thing I had on my desk the first time I sat at it was a couple paper clips,” said Colorado General Manager Bob Gebhard, a former assistant to Andy MacPhail with the Minnesota Twins. “I knew we had a long way to go.”

The journey has reached a critical point. As the playoffs and World Series captured the October headlines, the Rockies and Marlins were conducting a series of mock drafts in preparation for the real thing. They will receive the 15-player protected lists from each of the 26 teams Nov. 9--16 days after the end of the World Series--which will give them eight days to make final plans.

The 10 previous expansion teams had an average record of 59-102 in their first year. Neither Gebhard nor his Marlin counterpart, former Montreal Expo general manager Dave Dombrowski, has any illusions about the caliber of teams they will be fielding. But a summer of extensive scouting has them convinced that parity can work in their favor.

“I’m more encouraged than I thought I’d be,” Dombrowski said. “There’s so much equality today that when you get down to a choice between the 10th and 20th player in an organization there’s not much difference. I mean, I think there’s just as many prospects as ever, but fewer franchise players.”

The Marlins and Rockies will each draft 36 players, but will there be any prospects among them?

“I think we’re going to be tempted to take every overpriced veteran on the downside of his career,” Dombrowski said of the type player he expects to be available.

“However, the overall equality, and the ability to draft from both leagues, is going to make a difference. I also think that if we choose to get involved in free agency, there’s going to be a buyer’s market on (free agents who fall into) the second tier.

“I guess what I’m saying is that I think we can be better than previous expansion clubs, but I’d have to be naive to think we could be competitive next year. Traditionally, it takes five years, but I’m not going to put a time frame on it.”

Will either the Marlins or Rockies invest heavily in a free-agent market that includes Barry Bonds, Kirby Puckett, Greg Maddux, David Cone, Doug Drabek, Ruben Sierra, Mark McGwire, Wade Boggs and Benito Santiago? Will either draft a high-salaried veteran with a multiyear contract?

Gebhard and the Rockies seem more emphatic about the commitment to building with young players and resisting the initial temptation of a quick fix.

“It would be easy to open the checkbook and buy the best team possible, but I don’t want to be back at day one in four years because we got greedy in the first couple years and gave up draft choices signing type-A free agents,” he said. “If you’re one player away, that’s fine. But we’re building for the future, which is not to say we won’t have a sprinkling of veteran players of the right mold.”

Gebhard referred to: 1) non-compensation free agents such as Dave Winfield, Candy Maldonado, Mike Moore, Dave Stieb, Jeff Reardon, Tom Brunansky, Juan Samuel and many others who were not offered arbitration by their 1992 clubs; and 2) six-year minor league free agents, a pool that produced Greg Olson of the Atlanta Braves and Brian Harper and Carl Willis of the Minnesota Twins.

“I’ve told our ownership that the way to build is through sound scouting and a good minor league system,” Gebhard said. “Toronto and Kansas City are the model expansion franchises, and both built with young players. We may select a veteran or two that we think we can trade to a contender for younger players, but we don’t have to worry about attracting fans. We probably have a two-year honeymoon in that regard. Then we go into our new park, and that should extend (the grace period) for a couple years.”

The Marlins will be following that same route but might be more inclined to sign a high-priced veteran or two, particularly if the Giants move to Florida.

There has been speculation that the Marlins will pursue two Miami natives: Andre Dawson, who is a free agent, and Danny Tartabull, if he is exposed by the New York Yankees. The theory is that the Yankees would risk losing Tartabull so that the $24 million he is guaranteed over the next four years could be applied to a free agent pursuit of Bonds or Cone.

“A lot of what we do will depend on the options other teams give us,” Marlin President Carl Barger said. “If they choose to leave their high-priced talent exposed, we could do some things that would surprise people, although that’s not our intention.

“Our intention is to build with young players, but we’re also not going to expand a team’s 15-man protected list to 30. We’re not going to send out a message that they can leave their high-priced players unprotected because we’re not going to take them.”

The Marlins and Rockies also will approach the building of their teams with environmental considerations. The Marlins, Dombrowski said, are cognizant of the Latino influence in their area.

“We think a lot of Latin players will be drawn to us because of the locale, the weather and the proximity to their native countries,” he said. “We’d be foolish to stick our head in the sand and say it’s not a consideration.”

The Rockies, because of the altitude and the way balls travel there, say they will have no trouble attracting and keeping free-agent hitters.

“We’ll have a tougher time enticing pitchers,” Gebhard said, one reason he put an emphasis on pitching in the June draft.

With the promise of quick advancement, the Rockies led the majors by signing 40 of their 50 draft choices, including their top 25. Of the 40 who signed, 22 were pitchers, including the top four: John Burke of Florida, Mark Thompson of Kentucky, Roger Bailey of Florida State and Lloyd Peever of Louisiana State.

At the professional level, both teams scouted every player from Class A up, and both Gebhard and Dombrowski personally scouted every major league team for at least five consecutive days to appraise entire rotations. Both had scouts pay close attention to the organizations considered deepest in young talent: Atlanta, Toronto, Montreal, Texas, Houston, Cleveland and the Yankees.

The Marlins also videotaped top prospects and installed a satellite dish at Joe Robbie Stadium so Dombrowski and staff--several key aides followed him from Montreal, where they produced one of baseball’s most productive systems--could scout games.

As both general managers prepare for the draft, it is as if they have already produced a pennant winner. The Rockies, emphasizing the regional aspect, have deposits on more than 24,000 season tickets; expect 220,000 for the opening weekend against Montreal in 75,000-seat Mile High Stadium; could become the first team to attract more than 5 million in a season and already rank ninth among the 28 teams in the sale of licensed products.

The Marlins, who open against the Dodgers on April 5 in Miami, have deposits on more than 13,000 season tickets, expect that to reach 20,000 and should challenge 3 million for the season. Both clubs have major local radio-TV deals, along with newly hired managers: Rene Lachemann by the Marlins and Don Baylor by the Rockies.

Presumably, major league owners will weigh the damage a work stoppage would do to that enthusiasm before deciding whether to reopen labor negotiations with the players union in December.

A concern? Certainly, the two general managers said, but both added that they can’t let the possibility of a spring stoppage affect the work they have to do now that there is more than paper clips on their desks.

* DODGERS: Their errors in judgment will be out in the open when some former prospects are not protected. C6

* ANGELS: Their young players got major league experience this season, but that makes draft decisions more difficult. C6