COMMENTARY : NBA: Jordan Rules; Beware Barkley

And now, after 13 years, the National Basketball Association will try to walk without crutches. No Magic, no Bird. A league they once saved is on its own, hoping not to wobble. A league that filled only 63 percent of its seats the year before they arrived expects to hit 93 percent capacity this season. In such strange places as East Rutherford, N.J., Orlando and Charlotte, there are all-stars and hopes of making the playoffs. If there were ever a time to try to ride awhile without training wheels, this appears to be it. And in keeping with that theme, there’ll be no further mention of Magic and Bird.

Anyway, the league belongs to Michael Jordan. If he stays healthy, so does the NBA. One statistic, more than any other, points to Jordan’s importance to the league. Of Chicago’s 82 games, 55 will be televised... In Washington, D.C.! Last season it was quite clear that if the Bulls stayed healthy -- and they’ve miraculously avoided a major injury to a starter for five years -- they would repeat as NBA champions, and they did. That won’t be the case this season. At least two teams, the Knicks and Suns, look fairly ready to keep the Bulls from becoming the first franchise other than the Celtics or Lakers to win three consecutive titles. The Cavaliers and Jazz are just a half-step back.

The Pack includes almost everybody. The NFL achieved parity through schedule manipulation; the bad teams only have to beat mostly other bad teams to have what appears to be a good season. The NBA doesn’t have parity, but all but about four of the league’s 27 teams have reason to think they can qualify for the playoffs.

The significant development in the NBA is the rise of the teams we previously took for granted. Three of the four expansion teams could make the playoffs, all except Minnesota. Miami and Charlotte ought to be still playing come May. The Nets, who have been essentially a joke since the Julius Erving ABA days, won’t be just okay, they could win 45-48 games and challenge the Celtics for second in the Atlantic. They already had talent and now they’ve got Chuck Daly.

In Orlando, the thought commonly expressed is that it will take Shaquille O’Neal time to adjust to the NBA. Here’s how long it’s going to take Shaq to have an impact: about one half of one game. If the Hornets can get Alonzo Mourning signed before his rookie season becomes a wash, Charlotte could shoot right by teams such as the Pistons and Hawks. Larry Johnson is about to start hurting people. Even the 76ers, sans Barkley, are improved. They added four quality players, including an all-star in Jeff Hornacek, and won’t be nearly as bad as people think.

The Pacific Division will unquestionably be the best in the league. Golden State, which won 55 games a year ago, will be hard-pressed to finish fourth because Don Nelson again failed to come up with a big man.

The Warriors and Trail Blazers (the Buffalo Bills of the NBA) have been passed by the Suns. Even if Kevin Johnson misses significant time, the Suns can more than get by with backup playmaker Negele Knight. Barkley, Dan Majerle, Tom Chambers, K.J., Mark West, Danny Ainge-these guys are bound for the NBA Finals.

Now that the Spurs are essentially starting over under Jerry Tarkanian, Utah is the only team of consequence in the Midwest. And now that the Jazz has depth (Jay Humphries, Larry Krystkowiak and Tyrone Corbin) and an emerging force in forward David Benoit, it will take an obsessed Barkley to eliminate Utah in the West.

In the East, only the Knicks can really challenge the Bulls. And the Knicks still don’t have a true small forward who can guard Scottie Pippen or Jordan as effectively as X Man did in last year’s playoffs.

If the Bullets were in the Central, they might be able to climb past a few people. But in the Atlantic, they may finish with a record that doesn’t indicate how much better the team is. Pervis, Googs and Harvey Grant give the Bullets a nice front line, but Pervis will still be overmatched physically too many nights. Michael Adams and Rex Chapman are going to light it up a lot of nights, and they’d better because who is either of them going to guard?

The important thing is the Bullets are starting off the season with a full complement of players (I’m not about to count Bernard King). Healthy, slim and accounted for. That’s something they couldn’t say the previous three seasons. They’ve got some depth, they’ll be feisty and fun to watch. They could be loads better than last year (25-57) and also be fortunate to win 30 games because everybody in the division got so much better.

It’s amazing that people are still foolhardy enough to count the number of white (or black) players on a team. Alleged fans call the newspaper and ask, “Have you noticed how many white players the Bullets have?” My answer: Not until you mentioned it. What difference does it make if they can play? If Rex Chapman is more productive than Ledell Eackles, then who cares what color he is? If Brent Price proves to be a better backup point than Andre Turner, who cares?

Surely you must have figured out by now that the reason most of the best basketball players are black is cultural, not racial. If race accounted for the prowess of black basketball players, some African nation would have won the Olympic gold medal. Last I checked, Angola lost by about 100 to a U.S. team that included three white guys..

Pay attention, please. The NBA, more than any sport, is about talent. Not who can run or jump or dunk, but who can play.

And for that reason, when the dust settles, after the Knicks and Trail Blazers have been eliminated in the conference finals, we’ll be watching Barkley and Jordan play for the NBA championship in late June.