SHORT TAKES / MOVIES : Can Nicholson Get Two Oscars or Will Each Cancel the Other?

With a pair of ace performances under his belt, Jack Nicholson is generally presumed to have an edge in this year’s Oscar race. But the odds are tighter than they seem.

The Nicholson rumble began last summer, when word of his slam-dunk performance as a U.S. Marine colonel in Columbia Pictures’ “A Few Good Men” began to circulate. Now, on the eve of his turn as the bulldoggish labor leader Jimmy Hoffa in Fox’s “Hoffa” (opening Friday), handicappers are looking more closely at his chances.

Given that Nicholson will almost certainly be nominated for best supporting actor in “A Few Good Men” and very likely for best actor in “Hoffa,” will he become the first actor in history to snag two Oscars in the same year (bringing his career total to four, along with his wins for “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and “Terms of Endearment”)?

Or will he suffer the 1988 fate of Sigourney Weaver, whose best actress nomination for “Gorillas in the Mist” and best supporting actress nomination for “Working Girl” resulted in no Oscar at all?

The latter scenario seems more likely. “If anyone can pull off two Oscars, it’s Nicholson,” suggests John De Simio, vice president of publicity for Castle Rock, the serenely situated producer of “A Few Good Men.”

Most observers, however, are assuming that academy voters will do what they usually do with a split effort and simply choose one over the other. In this case, which Nicholson performance has the better shot?

The early betting is that he’s stronger in the best supporting category, mainly because the competition is a lot weaker than in the best actor category, where Nicholson will probably be up against Al Pacino in “Scent of a Woman,” New York Film Critics Circle choice Denzel Washington in “Malcolm X” and Robert Downey Jr. in “Chaplin.” (Slightly longer shots include Jack Lemmon in “Glengarry Glen Ross,” Nick Nolte in “Lorenzo’s Oil” and Clint Eastwood in “Unforgiven,” the best actor pick of the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn.) Nicholson’s best supporting actor rivals include Tom Hanks in “A League of Their Own,” Anthony Hopkins in “Howards End” and Gene Hackman or Richard Harris (or both) in “Unforgiven.”

The irony is that Nicholson’s allegiance, if he had to choose, may be more with “Hoffa.” It is more his own vehicle, more of an Oscar-style tour de force.

It is widely assumed among those who’ve seen both films that “Hoffa” will need the boost of a Nicholson nomination more than “A Few Good Men.” While both are hoping to gather several Oscar nominations (including best picture), “Men,” being more of a mainstream crowd-pleaser than the ambitious “Hoffa,” is almost certain to pull in bigger crowds and enjoy a longer theatrical run.

Despite recent instances in which “name” actors have called the shots in their Oscar nomination campaigns (as did Anthony Hopkins and Jack Palance last year in their successful bids with “Silence of the Lambs” and “City Slickers”), Nicholson is not expected to jump into the fray. Sources say he has not communicated with Columbia’s or Fox’s marketing teams about a possible split vote, or the potential of one campaign registering more strongly than the other, or any such consideration.

Columbia distribution chief Sid Ganis’ only chat with Nicholson on the subject was after a “Men” screening last summer. “The lights came up and I told him, ‘I think you’re gonna win one.’ Everybody had the same instinctive feeling.” Reflecting this confidence, Ganis says that “Men’s” print ad campaign for nominations in the trade papers will be “not conservative, not cheap, but modest--we’ll be pushing the film across the board.”

Says Fox’s domestic marketing president Andrea Jaffe, “We’ll be pushing ‘Hoffa’ in several categories, Jack’s stellar performance notwithstanding.”

Meanwhile, opinions about The Two Jacks and their competition are flying back and forth. “It’s going to get ridiculous reading the trades with Nicholson on every other page, but that’s what’s going to happen,” remarks an agent.