POP MUSIC : The Class Acts of 2011 and 2012 : With big years, Guns N’ Roses and Public Enemy virtually assured their chances for future induction in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame

Congratulations to Guns N’ Roses and Public Enemy.

No, they won’t be among the seven acts saluted Tuesday night when the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame holds its induction dinner in Los Angeles for the first time.

Those honorees at the Century Plaza Hotel will be Ruth Brown, Cream, Creedence Clearwater Revival, the Doors, Etta James, Van Morrison and Sly & the Family Stone. This class is one of the Hall of Fame’s strongest, but the artists are being honored chiefly for recordings in the ‘50s, ‘60s and ‘70s. In fact, some of those acts never made it past the ‘70s.

The focus today is on contemporary acts.

Because artists aren’t eligible for Hall of Fame consideration until 25 years after the release of their first recording, neither Guns N’ Roses nor Public Enemy can be officially inducted for another 20 or so years. But count on it happening.

Guns N’ Roses, America’s most explosive hard-rock band, and Public Enemy, rap’s greatest group, both enhanced their credentials sufficiently during the last 12 months to virtually guarantee them a place in the rock hall. Based on their placement in my sixth annual Hall of Fame Handicap, their chances of induction: a solid 85%.

Here’s why:

* Guns N’ Roses. It’s not a comparison he likes, but Axl Rose is this generation’s Jim Morrison--a combustible yet immensely creative and driven artist. Rose finds in rock ‘n’ roll both the aggression to satisfy his restless, rebellious spirit and the innocence to supply his need for a cleansing, almost spiritual force that helps free him from the emotional scars of a troubled childhood.

Blessed with an absolute faith in his own artistic vision, Rose is capable of leading the Los Angeles-based band to incredible heights on record and onstage, but also into moments of pretentiousness and into ugly confrontation when anything interferes with that vision.

It is those confrontations in large part that have given the group its bad-boy reputation. But Guns N’ Roses is not the one-dimensional attraction suggested by its media identity. The music can be venomous and sexist, but it also contains moments of sensitivity and astute social observation. “Welcome to the Jungle,” in fact, was a late ‘80s, hard-rock equivalent of the Eagles’ “Hotel California.”

Above all, Guns N’ Roses--including other founding members Slash and Duff McKagan--refuses to play it safe even by renegade rock standards. It was audacious for the group in 1991 to release two albums simultaneously, just as it was unthinkable for it to team with Metallica--perhaps its chief commercial rival in the hard-rock sweepstakes--for a stadium tour last summer. But Guns N’ Roses pulled off both feats. Like U2, Guns N’ Roses makes every minute and move count, which is what rock ‘n’ roll greatness is all about. Eligibility year: 2011.

* Public Enemy. Rap is now established as one of the most important pop genres since the start of rock in the ‘50s--as politically charged as the folk-rock revolution of the ‘60s, as culturally liberating as the Motown classics of the ‘60s and ‘70s, as street-based as the punk movement of the ‘70s. So we are bound to see some rap artists inducted into the Hall of Fame. The question is who will be first.

For a while, Run-DMC was the front-runner because the New York trio helped build a bridge between rap and a rock world that initially dismissed the inner-city sound as lightweight and gimmicky. But Run-DMC’s career has turned stone cold--and its place in the history is a bit tenuous. Its chances remain at the 50% level suggested in last year’s Hall of Fame Handicap. By contrast, Public Enemy--which was also at the 50% level--joins Guns N’ Roses at 85% this year.

Public Enemy’s 1987 debut album, “Yo! Bum Rush the Show,” helped shape the rap agenda by placing greater emphasis on sociopolitical urgency and sophistication in the music. As a result, group leader Chuck D. became the Bob Marley of the movement--someone who is hugely influential within rap circles and an articulate ambassador for the music.

The breakthrough this year was twofold: a tour with U2 that helped expose the band to hundreds of thousands of rock fans--and the L.A. riots. The tragedy of last spring should give rap greater respect by showing millions of mainstream Americans that the anger and aggression in the music weren’t simply some wholly fictional exercise. Rather, the anger grew out of the frustrations formed by years of social and economic ills. Eligibility year: 2012.

Moving Up

Guns N’ Roses and Public Enemy weren’t the only artists who made impressive strides toward Hall of Fame membership, but they are the only ones during the year whose chances crossed the crucial 75% level. Here are some others who moved up last year:

* Los Lobos. Some acts, such as the Four Seasons, get into the Hall of Fame chiefly on the basis of sales, while others, such as Bo Diddley, make it almost exclusively because of quality and influence. Los Lobos looks like it is going to have to base its case on the latter. Fortunately, it has a strong case. The Los Angeles band’s album “Kiko” added greatly last year to a splendid body of work that combines warm, inviting musical tones with themes that focus on the resilience of the human spirit. The group’s odds of eventual Hall of Fame induction jumped from 50% in 1991 to 65%.

* Tom Waits. Here’s another act whose chances rest on the quality of the music rather than sales. Waits’ fans may disagree over whether he should spend more time on his traditional (but rarely conventional) side or his experimental, but the results are almost always involving--as was the case again last year. His album “Bone Machine” mixed both sides of his artistic nature as he continued to explore matters of morality and mortality. He also scored with a great guest turn on the latest Thelonious Monster album--not to mention that nifty part in “Bram Stoker’s Dracula.” Up from 60% in ’91 to 65%.

* Metallica. This tenacious quartet increased its chances considerably by showing during the last two years that it could touch a wider audience without losing its integrity. The first step was the “Metallica” album, which showcased a more compact metal assault and a fuller emotional range. The next step was the powerful performances on the stadium tour with Guns N’ Roses. You also get the feeling that the group is going to be around for the long haul--maybe the Grateful Dead of its generation. Up from 25% in ’91 to 45%.

* Ice Cube. If Motown alone could produce half a dozen Hall of Fame inductees from the ‘60s, rap ought to be able to count on that many, which makes Ice Cube a possible contender. Still in his early 20s, the hard-core Los Angeles rapper gained rock credibility on last summer’s “Lollapalooza” tour, and his latest album, “The Predator,” demonstrated his strong fan base when it entered the pop charts at No. 1. Also crucial: He’s the most gifted rapper-spokesman since Chuck D. Up from 15% in ’91 to 30%.

* Whitney Houston. Note: This is a forecast, not an endorsement. But this woman is selling a ton of records and you could make a case that she’s as much rock ‘n’ roll as 1987 inductee Diana Ross. Up from 5% in ’91 to 7%.

* Michael Bolton. Note again: This is a forecast, not an endorsement. But you could make a case that he’s as much rock ‘n’ roll as probable future nominee Billy Joel. Up from 2% in ’91 to 5%.

Moving Down

Acts whose Hall of Fame chances dropped during the past 12 months:

* The Black Crowes. The group arrived in 1990 with an appealing sound based on Stones-Faces blues-rock strains, but last year’s album and tour pointed up some major songwriting deficiencies. Down from 5% in ’91 to 3%.

* Bobby Brown. He finally returned from the long studio layoff after “Don’t Be Cruel”--and then didn’t have a lot new to say in his music. Down from 5% in ’91 to 2%.

* Bon Jovi. This band’s chances were never that good, but they dropped considerably during 1992 because the thing that Bon Jovi had going for it seemed to evaporate with its last album: sales. Down from 5% in ’91 to 2%.

* Hammer. Ditto. Down from 5% in ’91 to 2%.

* Wilson Phillips. The threesome has more than Hall of Fame membership to worry about--like its career. Down from 1% in ’91 to 0.35%.

Newcomers

Acts that are being judged for the first time in the Hall of Fame Handicap:

* Ministry. The veteran industrial-rock band was a triple crown winner in 1992--for its “Psalm 69” album, its “Lollapalooza” tour experience and its own tour performance. 12%.

* Nirvana. The sensation of the early ‘90s and blessed with an excellent songwriter in Kurt Cobain, but it’s hard to give any newcomer more than a 10% chance. 10%.

* Arrested Development. An extremely promising rap entry whose debut album was one of the year’s most acclaimed works. But the group must develop a body of work before it can move up. 5%.

* Red Hot Chili Peppers. This veteran Los Angeles group’s mixture of frat-party high-jinks and trailblazing punk, funk and rap sensibilities finally hit a national nerve last year, but it has to establish a songwriting depth. 4%.

* Pearl Jam. The “Ten” album has sold a whopping 3.4 million copies and singer Eddie Vedder was a standout on “Lollapalooza,” but the Seattle group still has lots to prove. 4%.

* En Vogue. Are they the new Supremes? 3%.

* Sir Mix-a-Lot. Is he the new Tone Loc? 2%.

Hall of Fame Bound

Here are the other contemporary artists whose chances have been rated at 75% or better in past Handicaps--and whose induction is also considered virtually certain:

* 90% or More: David Bowie, Elvis Costello, Peter Gabriel, the Grateful Dead, Don Henley, Michael Jackson, Elton John, Madonna, Van Morrison, Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers, Prince, Lou Reed, Bruce Springsteen, Sting, Talking Heads, U2 and Neil Young.

* 75% or More: Aerosmith, Billy Joel, the Pretenders, Bonnie Raitt, R.E.M., Linda Ronstadt, Bob Seger, Van Halen.