Here We Go Again?

Saddam Hussein continues to probe for weakness in the ranks of his opponents with fresh provocations against the authority of the United Nations.

This week’s cross-border forays by Iraq into Kuwaiti territory began only hours after the White House announced that Baghdad had yielded to U.S. warnings and dispersed the antiaircraft missiles it had moved into southern Iraq. In fact, a spokesman for the U.N. observer mission in Kuwait has belatedly revealed, Iraqi forces first entered Kuwaiti territory Jan. 2 to begin removing non-military equipment left behind after the 1991 Gulf War. Such activity is allowed by the United Nations until Jan. 15, but only if permission to retrieve the equipment is obtained; none was. Despite this, Iraq’s incursion was not disclosed. That clearly was a mistake. Silence was taken by Baghdad to indicate indifference, if not assent.

Hussein, of course, is gambling that Washington is too preoccupied with the presidential transition and the Somalia mission, and the United Nations too caught up with events in Bosnia, to react strongly to his gambit. Once again, he teeters on the edge of serious miscalculation. He has directly defied U.N. resolutions. The Security Council, where Iraq has no friends, Monday condemned the raids into Kuwait and demanded that Baghdad return missiles it had seized. The statement included an unspecific warning of “serious consequences” for Iraq’s defiance.

The United States, alone or with its major allies, appears ready to put muscle behind diplomatic protests. The White House is on record that no further warnings will be given before possible military action is taken. President-elect Bill Clinton says he supports a tough U.S. stand.

The confrontation is not a crisis, but it is a challenge of the familiar kind that dictators like to mount to test the margins of what they can get away with. Each new escalation raises the level of risk. That’s why, in such cases, it’s almost always better to respond emphatically early on.