THE TIMES POLL : Riordan Leads Woo Among Likely Voters

With less than a month left in the campaign for mayor of Los Angeles, businessman Richard Riordan leads City Councilman Michael Woo 44% to 37%, according to a Times poll of voters most likely to turn out on Election Day.

However, the poll gives Woo a six-point lead among all registered voters, strongly suggesting that the fate of the election could depend on the size and nature of the turnout on June 8.

By either measure, the race appears to be in flux. Neither candidate has a majority. Thirty-six percent of all voters polled said they are weakly committed to one of the candidates or are undecided. More than half of those who are committed said both choices are distasteful.

One of those polled, Albert Temmins of Brentwood, sized up the election as an unpleasant choice between Riordan as “a Reaganite” and Woo as someone who has not leveled with voters.

“It’s really a Hobson’s choice between the two, and it’ll finally boil down to the lesser of two evils,” said Temmins, who is undecided.

The poll reinforces the notion of the campaign as a tale of two electorates. Among the larger group, the registered voters, Woo is either ahead or holding his own with people of all ages. He has an edge or is close to Riordan in most parts of town. And he is battling for an equal share of middle-of-the road voters, a group that may hold the key to victory in a contest that caused liberals and conservatives to square off months ago.

But only 35% of the registered voters turned out for the April primary.

When the electorate is pared down to likely voters--those with a consistent record of voting and a strong interest in the race--the arithmetic changes. Woo’s level of support erodes broadly. Among 18- to 44-year-old voters, for example, a 9-point Woo leads turns into an 8-point Riordan advantage. A virtual tie between Woo and Riordan among moderate voters becomes a 13-point Riordan advantage. Similarly, when the poll focuses just on likely voters, a Woo-Riordan tie on the Westside gives way to a substantial Riordan advantage.

Riordan’s edge is based on his appeal to people who tend to vote more regularly in local elections. His backers include conservatives and white moderates, wealthy people, homeowners and residents of the San Fernando Valley, where about 40% of the city’s voters live. He also has a slight lead among Jewish voters. And the poll found Riordan’s supporters to be slightly more enthusiastic about their candidate and much more interested in the mayor’s race than Woo’s backers.

Fifty-three percent of voters who preferred Riordan said they were very interested in the mayor’s race, but just 38% of Woo’s supporters indicated a similar degree of interest.

Seventy-six percent of Anglo voters--a group that makes up most of the electorate and tends to prefer Riordan--said they intended to vote in the mayor’s election. By contrast, 66% of black voters said they planned to vote. Woo has campaigned heavily in the black community, and the poll shows he is the favorite of black voters. But they must be motivated to go to the polls in large numbers for Woo to profit from their support.

“For Woo, generating enthusiasm is the big struggle. He has to convince his backers that it’s worth going to the polls, either by making them like him more or by making them hate Riordan more,” said John Brennan, director of the Times Poll.

Conducted May 8, 9 and 10, the poll interviewed 1,048 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. The interviews included 409 likely voters and, in their case, has a margin of error of plus or minus six points.

So far, neither candidate has captured the public’s imagination. Among likely voters, 47% have an unfavorable impression of Woo compared to 42% who have a positive view of him. Riordan fared better, but 35% of the likely voters had an unfavorable impression of him. Fifty percent expressed a favorable view.

Many voters are clearly struggling with the choice they face on Election Day.

“It’s a young-blood versus old-guard type of thing. (Woo is 41 and Riordan 63.) And I haven’t made up my mind about what’s better for our city,” said poll respondent Joel Hagler, 62, of West Los Angeles.

Like many voters polled, Richard Kukowski, 45, a former labor union official from North Hills, finds things to dislike in both candidates. His dilemma also has a racial aspect.

“I ended up voting for Riordan in the primary because of white backlash, I’d call it,” Kukowski said. “There’s so much crime, and a shift toward protecting minority rights so much that everything is so liberal here that I said, ‘We need to work on jobs rather than minority rights.’

“But I have mixed emotions about voting for Republicans.”

Another of those polled, 35-year-old Matthew Herzer of North Hollywood, said he is so turned off by both candidates that he may vote for “none of the above.”

“I basically don’t like either of them,” Herzer said. “I think both of them are big business, and they won’t change much about what’s wrong with the city, and they’re getting mired in slinging mud at each other.”

Others with unfavorable impressions of the candidates offered a variety of explanations. In Riordan’s case, much of the criticism had to do with his reputation as a wealthy businessman who has contributed $6 million to his own campaign. He was criticized for laying off local employees during a reorganization of Mattel Inc., the toy company he took credit for saving in campaign ads touting his leadership ability. Riordan’s role with Mattel has been a frequent target of his opponent, with Woo seeking to portray Riordan as an enemy of working people.

Of those people with a poor impression of Riordan, 20% cited Riordan’s management of Mattel; 14% said he is too rich or that he is an elitist; 13% said he is using his money to buy the election, and 11% said his business practices are questionable.

Yet, among people with a favorable impression of Riordan, his business experience was cited more than any other reason as a cause for admiration.

Forty percent of the people who like Riordan said he is a capable businessman and a good manager.

The poll found critics of Woo focusing on his record as a city councilman in Hollywood, which has experienced high levels of crime, homelessness and business flight during Woo’s eight years in office. Woo’s record in Hollywood has been the repeated subject of negative publicity orchestrated by his opponent.

Woo was also seen by a number of people polled as a “panderer” who sought to curry favor with a variety of interest groups and as a politician with a tendency to “waffle” on important issues.

Thirty-three percent of voters who dislike Woo said he has done a bad job as a Hollywood councilman; 15% said he panders; 13% said he changes his mind on the issues; 10% indicate he is too liberal, and 9% say he is too much of a City Hall insider.

The poll results show that people with positive views of Woo tend to focus on his reputation as a mediator between hostile factions in the city and as a candidate who can fairly represent the city’s many cultures.

Twenty-nine percent said he has good ideas, 17% said he understands the multicultural nature of Los Angeles, and 16% said he can bring people together.

Assessing the candidates’ personal characteristics, 53% of the voters said Woo had the honesty and integrity to serve as mayor; 44% had the same view of Riordan.

On the other hand, more people rated Riordan capable of handling the two biggest problems that voters see facing the city--crime and the economy.

Forty-six percent said that Riordan could restore prosperity, compared to 35% who gave Woo the same vote of confidence. On the issue of reducing crime, 41% said Riordan would do a better job; 31% favored Woo. But 59% said that Woo would be fairer to all segments of the city, compared to 23% who thought the same of Riordan.

Among the registered voters, the poll found a substantial gender gap, with 48% of men preferring Riordan compared to 40% for Woo. Among women voters, 48% chose Woo as opposed to 32% for Riordan. When the poll looked just at likely voters, Riordan did better among both men and women, although Woo maintained his advantage with women voters.

In an officially nonpartisan race in which both candidates have played to the partisan feelings of voters, the poll found Riordan, the Republican, doing better among Democrats than Woo does among Republicans. A quarter of the Democrats said they were for Riordan and 17% of Republicans chose Democrat Woo.

Although issues of party affiliation and abortion rights have figured prominently in campaign rhetoric, voters surveyed did not regard them as especially important. Just 6% said they liked Woo specifically because he is a Democrat and 7% said they opposed Riordan because he is a Republican. Only 2% said they are opposed to Riordan because they believe he is against abortion rights. In fact, though Woo has made much of Riordan’s contributions to anti-abortion groups, Riordan has said he strongly favors a woman’s right to have an abortion.

Even though Woo finished behind Riordan in the primary, he has picked up more support than Riordan from voters who backed other candidates in that contest. Though Woo is also faring better among Latino voters, Riordan is making a strong challenge, and has 38% Latino support to Woo’s 45%.

Assistant Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus and Times staff writer Shawn Hubler contributed to this story.

Turnout is Crucial

A Times Poll conducted Saturday through Monday in Los Angeles shows Michael Woo leading Richard Riordan among all the registered voters interviewed. But Riordon is ahead among the smaller group of voters most likely to turn out, indicating Woo faces the challenge of getting his backers to the polls.

All Registered Voters Woo: 45% Riordan: 39% Someone else: 1% Don’t know: 15% *

Among Likely Voters Woo: 37% Riordan: 44% Someone else: 1% Don’t know: 18% Source: Times Poll

THE TIMES POLL: Swing Voters in the Mayor’s Race

With one month to go until the mayoral runoff, 36% of registered voters are either undecided or only weakly committed to Michael Woo or Richard Riordan. These swing voters are the ones that both men need to attract in order to win on June 8. Here is a look at how they feel on some potentially important issues:

Their top priorities for the next mayor: Unemployment/economy (63%); Crime and gangs (39%); Education (15%)

On gun control: A 76% plurality say that California’s gun control laws should be stricter.

On LAPD behavior: Half (50%) worry that the greater danger for the city is that the LAPD is too reluctant to use force; just 28% are concerned that the police are too prone to use force.

On privatizing city services: A total of 47% support privatizing city services as a way of generating more revenues; 36% oppose that idea.

On growth limits: They also are divided in their preferences for more growth (44%) or limits to growth (42%).

On immigration: Two-thirds (68%) favor allowing the LAPD to work with the Immigration and Naturalization Service to identify illegal immigrants.

On spending and taxes: Swing voters are virtually evenly divided (46% to 43%) on the question of whether higher taxes or cuts in government services are a bigger threat to Los Angeles.

On business and city government: Two in five (39%) think city government is too anti-business, compared with 18% who feel it is excessively pro-business.

On inner-city problems: One in three say problems result from personal responsibility, 41% from problems of racism and economic injustice, and 17% blame both factors equally.

On abortion and school prayer: They are strongly in favor of abortion rights (75% favor the Roe vs. Wade decision that legalized abortion nationwide). A majority also favor prayer in public schools, but by a narrower margin of 53% to 39%.

On government attention to minorities: A 55% majority think that city government is not paying enough attention to minorities; just 13% think such attention is overdone.

Source: Times poll of 1,048 registered Los Angeles city voters conducted May 8 to 10.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll interviewed 1,048 registered voters in the city of Los Angeles, including 409 likely voters, by telephone May 8 to 10. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city. Random-digit dialing techniques were used to ensure that both listed and non-listed numbers could be contacted. The sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education and household size. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups the error margin is somewhat higher. For example, for likely voters it is plus or minus 6 points. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.