TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL : Voucher Plan Gets High Marks : Education: Measure to let parents use taxes for private school is backed by 57% of the voters.

Orange County voters show early strong support for a controversial November ballot initiative that would radically change education in California by allowing parents to use state tax money for private school tuition, a recent Times Orange County Poll has found.

The “school voucher initiative,” in which parents could choose any public school or convert a $2,500 voucher toward private school tuition, was backed by 57% of Orange County voters, with 30% opposed.

The support indicated that Orange County could be a crucial base for those who hope to pass the initiative, especially since statewide polls have shown the measure to be trailing. Conservative Orange County leaders have already generated a third of the funds for the plan.

At its heart, the debate over the measure is expected to focus on whether a voucher program would help or hurt the state’s education system. In Orange County, most of those surveyed said there was little to fear.

A third of the voters said they think schools would get better if the initiative passed and another 29% expected no change, while 28% says it would make things worse.

For a lot of parents, the measure appeared to offer new opportunities.

Just 37% of the parents with children in public schools said they would keep them there if the initiative passed, while more than half said they would favor moving their child to a private institution. Most of those who would leave public schools also said they would hope to send their child to a parochial school.

Julie Barrientes, 35, of Irvine supports the school voucher initiative and said she and her husband would switch their 8-year-old son from public to private Catholic school if it passes.

“We really couldn’t fit it into our budget (now), but if we had something like the voucher, yeah, we could probably swing it,” said Barrientes, a Democrat.

Despite the interest in public school flight, however, it is unlikely the initiative would generate such a massive shift of students because most private facilities already report few openings and their tuition is often more than the $2,500 voucher parents would receive under the initiative plan.

But despite those limitations, the poll indicates that Orange County has a profound desire for change in its education system.

“I think a lot of people in Orange County are very much inclined to give the individual as much choice as possible,” said Mark Baldassare, director of the Times Orange County Poll. “While their local schools may be good, the state funding is on shaky grounds and it adds to people’s desire to have options. Many people today are viewing the school voucher initiative as a measure that gives people options.”

He noted that early support for the initiative could change in the coming months as the campaigns heat up.

The survey also seemed to underscore Orange County’s reputation for independent politics. Statewide polls have found voters rejecting the initiative, purportedly because a majority are already satisfied with their public schools and do not see a need for radical change.

A statewide poll conducted by The Times in March found 51% of California’s voters are against the voucher plan while 41% favor the idea.

But in Orange County, Baldassare said support for the voucher plan seems to be driven by the area’s especially sharp distrust of government and its support for privatization of public services.

“There are a number of factors that fit with Orange County’s political profile,” said Baldassare. There is “a general feeling of distrust or alienation from institutions and government bureaucracies. This is feeding early support for a school voucher initiative.”

The Times Orange County Poll contacted 609 registered voters during a four-day period ending last Sunday. Its error margin for all voters is plus or minus four percentage points. The error margin is higher for subgroups such as categories for income, age or parents with children.

If the school voucher initiative passes, California would become the first state to take tax money from public schools and allow it to be spent for private school tuition. Two states--Oregon and Colorado--have considered and rejected similar measures in the last two years.

The initiative is designed to supply parents with vouchers equal to about half of what the state spends per pupil on its public schools--or about $2,500--for each child enrolled in a private or parochial school. Public school spending would be cut by that amount.

Supporters of the voucher plan say it would extend the opportunity for school choice to the state’s poorest families and provide competition that would spur public schools to improve. Opponents say it would widen the gap between good and bad schools as well as foster the proliferation of unscrupulous and discriminatory private schools.

The issue has been spiced with partisan politics--conservative religious groups have promised a major campaign in support of the idea while the traditionally Democratic teachers’ groups are helping finance the opposition.

The Times Orange County poll found Republicans are most likely to support the initiative, but it was also favored by 51% of the county’s Democrats.

The measure received its strongest support from parents; almost two-thirds of those with children at home say they support the plan.

Nathan Neben, a 29-year-old father of three who lives in Orange, said he expects the voucher plan would cause students and funds to shift from public to private schools. And while the public schools may suffer, he said he favored the vouchers because the competition would force them to improve.

“The public schools are going to shrivel up and die, because it’s going to be a more competitive marketplace to get the kids into the school,” Neben said. Schools will “become a leaner type of machine, and I think when the public school system is faced with those kind of challenges, hopefully they’re gonna have to start cutting those administrators and leaning up the process, maybe putting more control in the teachers’ hands, who really should have it.”

But the effect of competition on the public schools is hotly disputed. Opponents of the voucher plan, like Rodney Garrett, who is 34 and childless, say the idea would widen the gulf between “haves and have-nots.”

“Those who have (money), or at least are borderline, will use the voucher to send their kids to private school,” said Garrett, a registered Republican voter from Orange and a law school student. “And unfortunately, those people will primarily be Caucasians. And blacks and Hispanics will be painted further into the corner.”

In the poll, lower-income residents were most likely to say that the measure would have a positive effect on local public schools.

Barrientes and her husband, both of whom work at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station--he is a gunnery sergeant, she is a secretary for the federal agency overseeing the military’s commissaries--earn a combined income of less than $50,000, she said.

With one school-age child and two younger daughters, the parents looked into enrolling their son in Catholic school, but Barrientes said they couldn’t afford the $3,000 in annual tuition plus day care.

She believes that funding in her neighborhood schools is woefully lacking and would vote for taxes to increase it. She said other military families she knows would also send their children to private school if they could afford it.

“I think some of the (public) schools would get worse, and they would lose some of the funding even though they are already struggling as it is. But I’m not going to let my son suffer if I can help it, just because I don’t want the public school system to go down the drain.”

The survey also found that, for the most part, parents are already fairly satisfied with the quality of their local public schools even though a majority also think the schools are underfunded.

But asked whether they would support a tax increase to help pay for schools, the respondents were evenly split.

Among parents who have children in the public schools, 58% rated the quality of education either good or excellent. Another 33% said the school quality was fair while just 9% said it was poor.

The rating among all voters was slightly lower with 49% giving the schools an excellent or good rating.

Interestingly, there were only slight differences in the ratings given by various income or age groups. Just 14% of those with annual incomes under $25,000 rated their schools as poor compared to 11% of those with incomes over $75,000.

Even without a serious complaint about the school quality, however, a majority said they don’t believe schools receive enough money. Just a third said school funding was adequate while 54% said it was inadequate.

The concern about funding was sharpest among parents with children in public schools. Nearly 3 in 4 respondents in that group said the schools did not receive enough money. On the other side, older residents were least likely to say that schools were underfunded.

As for funding, Rick Barker was not sure the voucher plan would solve the problems of the public school system. His 13-year-old daughter already attends a parochial school because he’s so unhappy with the public system. Barker said, however, he favors the initiative because it will shake things up and it’s “what’s best for my daughter.”

“Right now I’m paying for a public school (through taxes that) I’m not getting anything out of,” he said. “Do I think this is the way to correct the existing public school system? Absolutely not. The public school system will fold, there will be a complete scramble of teachers from public to private. It will be a mess. But I know one thing: the public school system, as it’s set up now, is not working very well and the level that teachers are getting paid is not enough either.”

Orange County’s reputation as a haven for anti-tax sentiment was also put to the test by the issue of school funding. Voters were almost evenly divided on the question, with 47% saying they would favor a tax for schools and 48% opposed.

There was a sharp partisan split on the issue, with 54% of Democrats saying they would favor a tax compared to just 41% of Republicans.

Voucher Power

Orange County registered voters would overwhelmingly vote yes on a voucher plan that would allow parents to send their children to any school they choose. Yes: 57% No: 30% Don’t know: 13% Source: Times Orange County Poll

TIMES ORANGE COUNTY POLL: Voucher Support Is Widespread

All demographic groups would vote for a voucher system, with the strongest support coming from Republicans, younger voters, parents and those residing in North County. Such broad backing is also fueled in part by perceptions that it would improve local schools.

Don’t Yes No know Vouchers improve schools 89% 4% 7% Vouchers have no effect 61 28 11 Vouchers hurt schools 24 66 10 Democrats 51 38 11 Republicans 62 25 13 18 to 34 63 23 14 35 to 54 56 34 10 55 and older 53 34 13 Children at home 65 26 9 No children at home 51 34 15 North 60 29 11 South 51 33 16

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Effect on Public Schools

Overall, six voters in 10 believe public schools would not suffer from the imposition of a voucher system. Republicans, younger voters and parents are most likely to anticipate an improvement.

Don’t Better Same Worse know All voters 34% 29% 28% 9% Democrats 30 32 31 7 Republicans 37 27 25 11 18 to 34 36 34 21 9 35 to 54 33 24 35 8 55 and older 31 33 25 11 Children at home 38 25 30 7 No children at home 30 33 26 11

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Choice Means Private, Parochial Schools

Granted a choice, most voters would use a $2,500 voucher to send their children to a parochial or private school. This view is particularly pronounced among those who favor the voucher plan. Parents who already have children in public schools, though, are more likely to keep them there.

Don’t Public Private Parochial know All voters 26% 27% 39% 8% Child in public school 37 23 31 9 No child in public school 22 29 42 7 Favor vouchers 16 30 48 6 Oppose vouchers 45 23 24 8

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School Standards

About half the county’s voters think the public schools in their area are either of excellent or good quality. South County residents and those with children in the public schools are most convinced of their high quality.

Don’t Excellent Good Fair Poor know All voters 14% 35% 28% 11% 12% Child in public school 19 39 33 9 0 No child in public school 12 33 27 12 16 North 11 34 31 13 11 South 21 35 22 8 14

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School Funding

Despite perceptions as to the quality, most voters think local schools are underfunded. This is particularly true of those whose children attend public schools and North County residents.

Don’t Adequate Inadequate know All voters 32% 54% 14% Child in public school 25 72 3 No child in public school 35 47 18 North County 32 56 12 South County 33 48 19

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School Taxes

Voters are evenly divided as to whether they would support a tax increase for public schools, well below the two-thirds level required to endorse local bond measures. Democrats, younger voters and those with children in public schools show majority support for an increase as do those who oppose the voucher plan.

Don’t For Against know All voters 47% 48% 5% Democrats 54 40 6 Republicans 41 55 4 18 to 34 52 44 4 35 to 54 49 46 5 55 or older 37 57 6 Child in public school 53 43 4 No child in public school 44 50 6 Favor voucher plan 44 53 3 Oppose voucher plan 54 41 5

Source: Times Orange County Poll

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Orange County Poll was conducted by Mark Baldassare and Associates. The telephone survey contacted 609 Orange County registered voters between June 3 and June 6 on weekday nights and weekend days using computer-generated random telephone numbers. The margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 4%. The error margin for subgroups such as various age or income categories is larger.

Private Education

Despite annual tuition that runs into thousands of dollars, many private schools in Orange County have waiting lists. Here are 10 of the most expensive schools.

Annual Waiting School tuition Students list St. Margaret’s Episcopal School, $6,400 835 Yes San Juan Capistrano -7,250 Harbor Day School, Corona del Mar 6,200 400 Yes Edgewood Private School, Santa Ana 5,900 350 Yes Claremont High, Huntington Beach 5,400 150 Yes Oak Ridge Private School, Santa Ana 4,950-5,390 305 Yes Carden Hall, Newport Beach 4,100-4,700 500 Yes St. Catherine’s Military School, Anaheim 4,100 172 No Page Private Schools, Costa Mesa 3,950 250 No Carden Heights, Orange 3,500 40 No Vineyard Christian School, Costa Mesa 2,460 250 Yes

Source: Individual schools

Researched by GEOFF BOUCHER / Los Angeles Times