THE NFL / BILL PLASCHKE : There’s No Guarantee He Will Stay : BILL PLASCHKE

The next thing we know, Jimmy Johnson is showing up Sunday with a perm.

And agreeing to let Jerry Jones coach the second half.

And awarding the game ball to a kicker.

The next thing we know, Jimmy Johnson is hoisting a Super Bowl trophy above his ruddy face and announcing . . . that he is leaving the Dallas Cowboys to coach the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Could that explain his recent erratic behavior?

Could that be the reason this obsessively neat person has spent the week drawing on the walls of the Cowboys’ Valley Ranch training complex?

Might this not be his home anymore?

“It would not surprise me a bit if he left this year,” said Bill Bates, veteran Cowboy safety. “Just when you think you got him pegged, he does something else that makes you think you will never have him figured out.”

Guard Nate Newton agreed.

“Would not surprise me a bit if he was gone,” he said. “Actually, the only thing that would surprise me about Jimmy would be if he gave me a six-year, $50-million contract.”

That Johnson is setting himself up to seek greater challenges elsewhere is only one of the theories surrounding his recent public quotes and pokes.

In the span of four working days, Johnson has:

--Guaranteed a victory Sunday over the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC championship game here.

--Questioned the reputation of 49er quarterback Steve Young because he has not won a Super Bowl.

--Ripped Gary Stevens, Miami Dolphin offensive coordinator and close friend of Don Shula.

--Admitted that he gives special treatment to former University of Miami players.

--Emphasized he and owner Jones are not lifelong friends and do not socialize.

--Urged Cowboys fans to get drunk before Sunday’s game.

Johnson even spoke directly about leaving the Cowboys, upon being asked whether his victory guarantee would come back to haunt him.

“Those coaches who say what goes around, comes around are usually on the short end of things,” he said. “Yes, this might ‘go around.’ But it might ‘go around’ against some coach other than me.”

Constructing championships from scrap heaps has traditionally left Johnson bored. He wins, then runs.

When asked about the Jaguars last month, he admitted to being intrigued by the idea.

“Never say never,” he said.

This response upset Jones, who is becoming increasingly disillusioned with his loud headmaster.

“If you aren’t interested in something, you say that, just like that,” Jones said. “That’s how it works in the real world.”

Considering Johnson has five years remaining on a Cowboy contract worth $1 million a year, this attempted flight could be his most dangerous.

“I really don’t think he is going anywhere,” Jones said.

So then what’s with all the posturing? Could Johnson really think that his Cowboys are so good, he can win this game with a smile?

Did he really make that guarantee because he simply felt like throwing out his chest?

Or was this merely part of a concerted effort to rattle Young, who has proven that it doesn’t take much.

Welcome to Dallas, Steve. The opposing coach guaranteed a victory. What do you think?

In all this, only one thing is truly guaranteed.

If the Cowboys lose Sunday, Johnson will wish he was gone.

IF JIMMY CAN DO IT, SO CAN WE

It’s guaranteed that the San Francisco 49ers will be playing the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

On a normal afternoon, the Cowboys are a better team than the 49ers. They are quicker, stronger and far more composed.

And they can expect 120 yards in 30 carries from Emmitt Smith.

But Sunday will not be a normal afternoon. Not when Smith feels much more pain than anyone will admit.

Struggling to protect his separated shoulder, he is backing into gaps. He is running out of bounds for the first time.

He couldn’t even finish a playoff game against the Green Bay Packers and that was only one week ago.

On an afternoon without a sound Emmitt Smith, the Cowboys are merely a normal team, the kind the 49ers have been whipping all season.

By the time Young finishes, former teammate Joe Montana will already be waiting for him after leading the Kansas City Chiefs over the Buffalo Bills.

The Bills were not even close to the Chiefs in their Kansas City game this year, a 23-7 victory for the Chiefs. In the two months since, the gap has not been closed.

Montana has grown more comfortable, while Jim Kelly of the Bills has merely looked older.

Montana’s aura has spread, even to his defense, which shut down a good running attack in Houston on Sunday. The Buffalo defense could not stop the Raider running game.

That leaves Montana against Young in the most intriguing Super Bowl ever. Guaranteed.

FLAG FLAP II

NFL Commissioner Paul Tagliabue announced an important decision a couple of weeks ago that could haunt him now.

He refused to force the people who run the Georgia Dome to take down the state flag--which is partly made up of a Confederate emblem--from outside the building when the Super Bowl is played there.

OK, so he learned his lesson about mixing politics and football during the Phoenix Super Bowl debacle a couple of years ago. But aren’t we talking about more than just politics here? Aren’t we talking about dignity?

“You talk to me about this next week if we get there,” said Tommie Agee, veteran running back for the Cowboys. “All players who played in the South are used to this, but still . . . this is something we’ll have to see about.”

GETTING EVEN

When Emmitt Smith takes an injury break in Sunday’s NFC championship game--and he will--two young running backs will finally have a chance to prove something.

One is Derrick Lassic, who was abused by fans and teammates while playing during Smith’s holdout early in the season.

Remember when Charles Haley put his helmet through a wall in a defining moment after the Cowboys fell to 0-2? He was angry at Lassic.

“I went through a lot of hard times,” Lassic said. “To get a chance now, with all I’ve seen, I’ll be ready.”

The other back is Lincoln Coleman. This time last year, he was working on a department store loading dock.

Before that, he was loading customers’ cars at Home Depot.

The former Baylor running back--before he flunked out of school after the 1990 season--was signed this summer on a fluke.

He had been spotted playing in the Arena Football League by a Cowboy trainer.

Since leaving college, he had also played for a local semipro team, the Dallas Colts, earning $5 a game.

“Once I’m able to sit back and look at this, I’m sure I’ll say, ‘Oh, Lord,’ ” Coleman said.

Given the right circumstances Sunday, fans could be saying that a lot sooner.