ANALYSIS : Ducks Still in the Hunt Later Than Expected

Strange but true: Three-quarters of the way through their first season, the Mighty Ducks are still in the chase for a playoff spot.

Back on Dec. 2, Coach Ron Wilson couldn’t believe his first-year team was tied with the Stanley Cup finalist Kings. Now, it’s almost March and the Ducks are two points ahead of the Kings and four behind San Jose in a three-team race for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff berth.

Twenty-one games--10 at home, 11 on the road--remain, and Wilson stops short of saying the Ducks (23-35-5) will make the playoffs. He keeps saying they’ll be close, and that’s as startling a development as any this season in the NHL.

If not for the success of their fellow expansionists, the 26-24-10 Florida Panthers . . . Or an 0-9 record against the Kings and Sharks . . . Or a 9-20-2 record at Anaheim Arena . . .

Where would the Ducks be then?

On the plus side:

* They tied Tampa Bay’s 1992-93 expansion debut of 23 victories with a 6-3 win over Philadelphia last week.

* They could tie or better the NHL expansion record of 31 victories, set by the Flyers and Kings in 1967-68. (Of course, Florida will probably get there first).

* They finally made a trade, bringing scorer Stephan Lebeau from Montreal in exchange for steady goaltender Ron Tugnutt.

Here’s the three-quarter report card:

OFFENSE

Scoring goals is still the Ducks’ most glaring weakness. Their 174 goals are better than only Florida (170), Tampa Bay (165) and Ottawa (155).

The Lebeau trade should help. He had 80, 58, 53 and 35 points in four seasons in Montreal. Signing Paul Kariya of Canada and Valeri Karpov of Russia, two of the biggest offensive stars of the Olympic Games, in the coming days would help, too. It’s no slam dunk that Kariya and Karpov will soon be in Duck uniforms, but General Manager Jack Ferreira has been keeping an eye on both in Lillehammer.

Leading scorer Bob Corkum, who has 20 goals and 44 points, has proved to be the team’s biggest offensive surprise. Terry Yake, expected to lead the team, has 20 goals and 43 points.

Key stat: Since returning from a dislocated left elbow that sidelined him for two months, Anatoli Semenov has only three points in nine games.

Grade: C. Down from a C+ at halfway.

DEFENSE

There have been occasional defensive lapses, but a 7-2 loss to Detroit on opening night still ranks as the season’s only blowout.

Alexei Kasatonov is expected to be sidelined for about a month with a hairline fracture in his right foot. But there are plenty of others ready to take up the slack.

Don McSween has provided added depth and Sean Hill and Bill Houlder have come around lately. Houlder worked his way out of Wilson’s doghouse after being scratched for three consecutive games. He had a bad habit of making a mistake that led to a goal for the opposition, driving Wilson batty.

Key stat: The Ducks’ 194 goals allowed is the least in the Pacific Division.

Grade: B-. Holding steady.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Power-play efficiency: In a word--brutal. They rank 23rd in the NHL and recently went through a five for 60 stretch. It’s hoped that Lebeau will turn things around. In his first game as a Duck, he played on the power-play unit along with Semenov and Bob Corkum.

Key stat: They were scoreless in 18 consecutive power-play opportunities until Yake broke the streak with a first-period power-play goal against Buffalo on Wednesday.

Grade: D. Down from a C-.

Penalty killing: One of the most impressive aspects of their game continues to be their penalty killing. They rank ninth in the NHL, allowing 50 goals in 291 short-handed situations.

Key stat: They fell from first to eighth in killing penalties on the road.

Grade: A.

GOALTENDING

There appeared to be two reasons the Ducks made the Tugnutt trade. First, they needed more offense and second, Guy Hebert finally emerged as the No. 1 goalie. Hebert started 10 of 13 games before Sunday’s trade and had a 4-4-2 record, including a 3-0 shutout of Vancouver Feb. 4 at Anaheim Arena.

Mikhail Shtalenkov, who will be Hebert’s backup, won seven of his last 10 for the San Diego Gulls and was 15-11-2 with a 3.45 goals-against average overall. Shtalenkov stopped 21 shots in a 2-2 tie at Pittsburgh Thursday.

Key stat: Hebert had a 1.50 goals-against average in his last four victories.

Grade: A-. The effects of the Tugnutt trade have yet to be determined.

COACHING

The Ducks can thank Wilson’s grinding game plan for much of their success this season. When they lapse into a freewheeling style, they get burned. It happened often at home and was the main reason the Ducks were 4-12-2 at Anaheim Arena at the season’s midway point. They settled into a more defensive mode in the season’s third quarter and are 5-8-0 in the last 13 home games.

Wilson has complained about some silly stuff this season--the width of Florida goalie John Vanbiesbrouck’s pads, for instance. But he was on target when he questioned Wayne Gretzky’s injury, and sportsmanship, after a five-minute high-sticking major to McSween Jan. 29 at the Forum.

Wilson’s postgame comments inspired Tony Tavares, team president, to fire this salvo on the eve of the teams’ Feb. 11 rematch at Anaheim:

“He has influenced more calls than any other player probably in the history of sports. It’s to his credit and his team’s benefit. I wish I had somebody who could get away with what he gets away with.”

Hello rivalry.

Key stat: Wilson’s preseason prediction was for 18 victories.

Grade: A-.