GRAMMY TIME : The Crystal Ball & the Merit Awards : WHO WILL WIN : Sting may need a bodyguard for his album of the year award for ‘Ten Summoner’s Tales.’ But don’t cry just yet for Whitney Houston

If the Grammys were based mostly on record sales, as critics sometimes charge, “The Bodyguard” soundtrack would have a lock on the prize for best album when the awards are presented on Tuesday.

The record--featuring six tracks by the movie’s star, Whitney Houston--has outsold the four other finalists combined.

Even so, “The Bodyguard” is likely to lose to Sting’s critically admired “Ten Summoner’s Tales.”

So the Grammys are based strictly on musical merit after all?

Not exactly.

But another outside consideration is also boosting Sting’s chances: Image . The voters admire Sting’s music, but they also like his cool, classy persona. The English musician, who has won 10 Grammys since 1981, is the kind of sophisticated, intelligent artist voters can feel good about honoring.

Image isn’t supposed to enter into voting decisions, but it often does. After all, the 8,000 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences care about how their choices are received. They don’t want a repeat of the grousing that followed their best album citations to Christopher Cross and Toto in the early ‘80s. They know that a Sting victory will be popular with critics, the industry and the public.

Houston, however, won’t be going home empty-handed. She’s likely to win three awards, including the other top prize, best single.

Here are my predictions:

Best Album--The nominees: Donald Fagen’s “Kamakiriad,” Houston’s “The Bodyguard,” Billy Joel’s “River of Dreams,” R.E.M.’s “Automatic for the People,” Sting’s “Ten Summoner’s Tales.”

“The Bodyguard” wouldn’t be the first soundtrack to be voted best album: “Saturday Night Fever” won in 1979. But “Fever” represented a major cultural phenomenon--disco. “The Bodyguard” represented little more than expert cross-media marketing, and half the tracks are by various artists with little connection to the movie.

R.E.M.’s album came out at the very beginning of the eligibility year--Oct. 1, 1992, to Sept. 30, 1993--which will probably hurt its chances. Joel hasn’t won a Grammy since 1981, so it would be a big leap for him to suddenly take the top prize. And Fagen’s collection had little staying power: Released in May, it was off the charts by October.

That leaves Sting’s fourth solo studio collection as the probable winner. Added tip-offs: “Ten Summoner’s Tales” is also represented in the producing and engineering categories, and Sting’s video of the same name is up for best long-form video.

Best Single--The nominees: Peabo Bryson & Regina Belle’s “A Whole New World,” Houston’s “I Will Always Love You,” Joel’s “The River of Dreams,” Sting’s “If I Ever Lose My Faith in You,” Neil Young’s “Harvest Moon.”

Houston has been the front-runner to win this award virtually since the day “I Will Always Love You” was released. The steel-belted ballad has everything that Grammy voters prize in a best single winner: It’s sleek and well-crafted, dramatic and anthemic, and it was a big hit in a variety of radio formats. Besides, Grammy voters like Houston, who has won twice in the pop female category.

The only possible hitch is that enough voters will rebel at going along with such an obvious choice and will instead root for an underdog. That could give Young’s gentle “Harvest Moon” a chance at one of the biggest upsets in Grammy history.

The ballad is from Young’s album of the same name, which was the spiritual successor to his classic 1972 album “Harvest.” That should give it a comfort factor with Grammy voters, many of whom came of age musically in the late ‘60s and early ‘70s. (That helps explain why several other veterans from that period--including Eric Clapton, Bonnie Raitt and Bette Midler--have been big recent winners.)

Best Song--The nominees for this songwriter’s award: Young’s “Harvest Moon,” Jim Steinman’s “I’d Do Anything for Love (But I Won’t Do That),” Sting’s “If I Ever Lose My Faith in You,” Joel’s “The River of Dreams,” Alan Menken & Tim Rice’s “A Whole New World.”

“I Will Always Love You” would have won in a landslide, but it was disqualified because Dolly Parton’s original version, a country hit in 1974 and 1982, achieved prominence before this eligibility year. That’s a lucky break for “A Whole New World,” an instant standard that won the Oscar last year for best original song.

Best New Artist--Nominees: Belly, Blind Melon, Toni Braxton, Digable Planets, SWV (Sisters With Voices).

Braxton has a big advantage over the four groups: This award usually goes to a solo artist or a group with a strong lead personality. Besides, Braxton has been hailed as the next Anita Baker, who has scooped up seven Grammys since 1987.

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Here are the likely winners in key performance categories:

Best Pop Vocal Performance, Female--A trained chimp could guess this one--Houston’s “I Will Always Love You.” Also nominated: Mariah Carey’s “Dreamlover,” Shawn Colvin’s “I Don’t Know Why,” k.d. lang’s “Miss Chatelaine,” Tina Turner’s “I Don’t Wanna Fight.”

Pop Male--Sting’s “If I Ever Lose My Faith in You” has a slight edge in an extremely competitive race. But many voters will support Joel (“The River of Dreams”), a Grammy favorite son who has been going home empty-handed in recent years, and Rod Stewart (“Have I Told You Lately”), a Rock and Roll Hall of Famer who has never won a Grammy. Also nominated: Boy George’s “The Crying Game,” Aaron Neville’s “Don’t Take Away My Heaven.”

Pop Group or Duo--As a best single finalist, Bryson & Belle’s “A Whole New World” is likely to win--unless the four male-female duets split the vote, allowing R.E.M. (“Man on the Moon”) to sneak in. Also: Celine Dion & Clive Griffin’s “When I Fall in Love,” Barbra Streisand & Michael Crawford’s “The Music of the Night,” Vanessa Williams & Brian McKnight’s “Love Is.”

Traditional Pop--Streisand has been so visible and productive in the past year that she’s a shoo-in to pick up her ninth Grammy, for “Back to Broadway.” Also: Tony Bennett’s “Steppin’ Out,” Rosemary Clooney’s “Do You Miss New York?,” Crawford’s “A Touch of Music in the Night,” Diane Schuur’s “Love Songs.”

Rock Solo--A year ago, who would have thought that Meat Loaf, then a semi-forgotten ‘70s relic, would be the favorite to beat Sting, Peter Gabriel and Neil Young? But the singer made a stunning comeback with “I’d Do Anything for Love (But I Won’t Do That),” which was inescapable during the voting period. Gabriel (“Steam”) is strong, but the entries by Sting (“Demolition Man”) and Young (“All Along the Watchtower”) are side projects that aren’t included on their latest albums. Also: Lenny Kravitz’s “Are You Gonna Go My Way?”

Rock Group or Duo--Aerosmith has been around long enough to have acquired stature, but it’s still regarded as a credible and contemporary act. That’s why the band is expected to win here for the second time in four years, with “Livin’ on the Edge.” That is, if the voters can resist the chance to simultaneously salute Bob Dylan, Young, Clapton, George Harrison, Tom Petty and Roger McGuinn--all nominated for “My Back Pages,” a track from a Dylan tribute album. Soul Asylum’s “Runaway Train” is also a strong entry, though the socially conscious song, written by group leader David Pirner, will have a better chance in the rock song category. Also: Blind Melon’s “No Rain,” Spin Doctors’ “Two Princes.”

Hard Rock--AC/DC’s “Highway to Hell,” a track from its recent “Live” album, has a huge advantage--it was the title song of the band’s first blockbuster album in 1979. That familiarity factor should help it overcome the hot-new-thing buzz associated with Smashing Pumpkins (“Cherub Rock”) and Stone Temple Pilots (“Plush”). Also: Living Colour’s “Leave It Alone,” Robert Plant’s “Calling to You.”

Metal--Keep your eye on White Zombie’s “Thunder Kiss ’65.” The band’s million-selling album is still going strong, while its rivals’ albums have dropped off the charts. Also: Iron Maiden’s “Fear of the Dark,” Megadeth’s “Angry Again,” Ozzy Osbourne’s “I Don’t Want to Change the World,” Suicidal Tendencies’ “Institutionalized.”

Alternative--R.E.M.’s best album nomination is the tip-off: The critically acclaimed band, which won this award two years ago with “Out of Time,” will repeat with “Automatic for the People.” Also: Belly’s “Star,” Nirvana’s “In Utero,” Smashing Pumpkins’ “Siamese Dream,” U2’s “Zooropa.”

R&B; Female--Houston will win her first R&B; Grammy with her remake of Chaka Khan’s “I’m Every Woman.” Newcomer Toni Braxton (“Another Sad Love Song”) is her strongest rival, but Arista Records, which distributes both artists, would probably rather see Houston win. This was Houston’s year, and a win here would build up her R&B; credibility. Braxton, already assured of an award for best new artist, will have other years. Janet Jackson (“That’s the Way Love Goes”) is destined to be a bridesmaid in this category again. Also: Aretha Franklin’s “Someday We’ll All Be Free,” Patti LaBelle’s “All Right Now.”

R&B; Male--Luther Vandross strikes the right Grammy balance of class and commercialism. So he’s likely to take this award for the third time in four years, with his soulful remake of the Bee Gees’ “How Deep Is Your Love.” Also: Babyface’s “For the Cool in You,” Tevin Campbell’s “Can We Talk,” Ray Charles’ “A Song for You,” Teddy Pendergrass’ “Voodoo.”

R&B; Group or Duo--Sade’s “No Ordinary Love” was featured in the hit movie “Indecent Proposal” (and in the film’s ubiquitous ads), which gives it an edge in terms of familiarity. (Now will someone explain why this lilting, jazzy ballad is considered R&B; ?) Also: Boyz II Men’s “Let It Snow,” Earth, Wind & Fire’s “Sunday Morning,” En Vogue’s “Give It Up, Turn It Loose,” Tony Toni Tone’s “Anniversary.”

Rap Solo--Many Grammy voters are wary of rap, but even they had to notice that Dr. Dre (“Let Me Ride”) found mainstream acceptance last year--including a Rolling Stone cover and a hit album that outsold Sting and Neil Young combined. Also: LL Cool J’s “Stand by Your Man,” MC Lyte’s “Ruffneck,” Paperboy’s “Ditty,” Sir Mix-a-Lot’s “Just Da Pimpin’ in Me.”

Rap Group or Duo--How big a handicap is a murder charge in Grammy voting? We’re about to find out. Dr. Dre & Snoop Doggy Dogg’s million-selling hit “Nuthin’ but a ‘G’ Thang” would have been the front-runner here, but Snoop’s murder charge will probably sink its chances. As a result, Arrested Development will probably win here for the second year in a row, with “Revolution,” which was recorded for Spike Lee’s movie “Malcolm X.” Also: Cypress Hill’s “Insane in the Brain,” Digable Planets’ “Rebirth of Slick (Cool Like Dat),” Naughty by Nature’s “Hip Hop Hooray.”

Country Female--Nashville voters like the way that sassy Mary-Chapin Carpenter (“Passionate Kisses”) has shattered the traditional image of the country music queen. So she’s likely to become the first woman to ever take this award home three years in a row. Her only serious competition is Wynonna Judd (“Only Love”). Also: Emmylou Harris’ “High Powered Love,” Tanya Tucker’s “Soon,” Trisha Yearwood’s “Walkaway Joe.”

Country Male--Alan Jackson’s spirited “Chattahoochee,” which was voted best single in October by the Country Music Assn., is the entry to beat. Also: Garth Brooks’ “Ain’t Going Down (Til the Sun Comes Up),” George Jones’ “I Don’t Need Your Rockin’ Chair,” Aaron Neville’s “The Grand Tour,” Dwight Yoakam’s “Ain’t That Lonely Yet.”

Country Group or Duo--Brooks & Dunn, country’s hottest duo since the Judds, have an edge with “Hard Workin’ Man,” the title track from their second album. Also: Confederate Railroad’s “Trashy Women,” Diamond Rio’s “In a Week or Two,” Little Texas’ “God Blessed Texas,” Sawyer Brown’s “All These Years.”*