A Bullish Outlook for Derby

It is the considered opinion of the standard American racing fan, indeed of the racing Establishment itself, that the Kentucky Derby is best taken on by a horse defined as a “router,” i.e., one that can run all day, or any part of it, at a measured speed and usually wins his races from behind in the last furlong or so.

In other words, sprinters need not apply. You always find the winner in the caboose of the race in the early going. Ignore that horse flying on the lead.

The track is supposed to be deeper, more tiring, and the trainers tend to put more stamina than swiftness into their horses’ workouts. Laz Barrera used to train for Derby victories on gallops alone.

The nation becomes critical in this year of Our Lord because the racing Establishment has come upon a puzzlement, a standout horse who wins his races like a quarter horse, streaking away from everybody and daring them to catch him.

They can’t. Holy Bull simply gets out there and, in the parlance of the track, steals every race.

Of course, stealing a Florida Derby or a Blue Grass is not like stealing that race at Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May. That is grand theft. The others are petty larceny. Churchill is supposed to be set up for the cleanup hitters, not the leadoff men. You come up an eighth of a mile short in the Derby if you go rollicking out there like an Elk on a picnic.

“Stealing” a race in the strictest sense of the term is supposed to indicate a use of subterfuge. You roll out there in what appear to be blistering fractions, but aren’t. Johnny Longden was the master of this. He won about 8,000 races daring you to get by him.

It’s winning wire to wire that upsets the purists. You are not supposed to win the Kentucky Derby that way.

But the simplest examination of the history of that race will show it’s not uncommon.

Back in 1955, one of my all-time favorite thoroughbreds, Swaps, won the Santa Anita Derby (with Longden aboard) wire to wire, and he was supposed to be “short”--behind in conditioning for the year--in the race.

“He’ll never do that in Louisville,” darkly predicted the backstretch hardboots.

Well, he did. Part of that was because the connections of the Eastern challenger, Nashua, bought the myth that you don’t win the Derby from ahead. By the time Nashua picked him up, Swaps was on his way to the barn. Swaps had plenty of run left when they hit the stretch. He had not used up much running a 1:37 mile.

Order seemed to have been restored the very next year when Needles came from 16th at the three-quarters to run down the leaders in the stretch. The Derby is more used to that scenario.

But it’s uncanny how many times horses have won wire to wire at Churchill. For every Cavalcade and Whirlaway and Twenty Grand who liked to come from far out of it, there was a Count Fleet (with Longden aboard) saying “Come catch me!” for 10 furlongs.

In antiquity, front-runners dominated the Derby. Sir Barton, the first Triple Crown winner, led wire to wire. So did the first filly winner, Regret, in 1915. Riva Ridge, Winning Colors, the last filly to win; Jet Pilot, Hoop Jr., Johnstown and War Admiral led every panel. Man o’ War never ran in the Kentucky Derby, but was a wire-to-wire winner in the Preakness and the Belmont--which he won by 20 lengths--in his year, 1920.

The greatest upset in Derby history was pulled off by wire-to-wire winner Dark Star, whom the 7-10 shot Native Dancer couldn’t catch. It was the only race the Dancer ever lost.

So the field at Kentucky on May 7 has a neat problem. In Holy Bull’s last two races--and seven of his last eight--he has run unmolested to victory on the front end. It was considered suicidal to match strides with him out of the gate.

But now it’s suicidal not to. Standard strategy in matters of this kind calls for the trainer to field an entry and have one of them be the sacrificial lamb who will lead Holy Bull in such dizzying fractions that even he will tire.

This is not possible at Louisville, where a horse has to have met money-won conditions to get in the gate. You can’t merely pick up a speedball at Lexington and van him over anymore.

So, other trainers are in the position of a fight manager--do they want their charge to go out there and slug with Holy Bull? That’s like rushing to center ring against Mike Tyson and throwing crazy rights. A better plan would seem to be to stand clear and hope he tires himself out.

If nobody goes out there and steps up the pace, it won’t be a race, it will be a parade. Whoever wins had better be prepared to put up with a lot of Bull. And if he wins from the front end, as usual, his handlers will be able to turn and shrug, “Doesn’t everybody?”