Economist Says Area’s Recovery Is Slowing : Economy: He contends it will take years for the county to return to pre-recession levels. Job losses and migration are blamed.
Job losses in manufacturing, coupled with migration of the county’s richest population groups, are slowing down Ventura County’s economic recovery, a UC Santa Barbara economist said Wednesday.
About 230 county business men and women at a seminar in Westlake listened as Mark Schniepp, director of the UCSB Economic Forecast Project, used words such as “modest” and “austere” to describe the county’s recovery from the recession.
Using slides, Schniepp showed a series of bar charts illustrating aspects of the economy from average salaries to high technology employment, nearly all creeping steadily downward or barely holding even. The number of durable manufacturing jobs in the county has fallen by 3,000 since 1990, to a current total of about 21,000, he said.
Schniepp did offer a glimmer of hope, saying true recovery should start this summer, judging by building permits, gains in auto sales and growth in service industries. But he said the rebound will be slow and it will take at least four years for Ventura County to return to pre-recession levels.
“Loss in manufacturing jobs is the principal reason,” Schniepp said. “We just hope other sectors can make up for it.”
For the first time since 1948, more people are leaving Ventura County than moving in. While population continues to increase due to births, statistics show the numbers of residents in the 30-to-44 and 45-to-65 age groups dropping.
“The 30-to-44 population is usually growing, but now it’s going down,” Schniepp said. “That’s a bit disturbing because that’s your principal labor force.”
The primary destinations for departing residents are Arizona, Nevada and Colorado, with Washington and Oregon a close second, he said. A moan rose from the audience when Schniepp put up a slide showing the dramatically growing number of jobs in Colorado--the polar opposite to those he had shown for Ventura County.
The departure of older residents has contributed heavily to a drop in the county’s wealth, he said. Meanwhile, the number of people in the 18-to-29 age group is increasing.
Those people tend to fill lower-paying jobs in the service sector, one area that Schniepp said showed continued signs of growth despite the recession. But salaries in those fields remain low, he said. “We’re not creating wealth the way we were,” he said.
“Business services and health care--look for these industries to really be the leaders in creating jobs in the county in the next few years,” he said.
One audience member, Thomas Becker, administrator at the Buenaventura Medical Clinic, said he was troubled by the outlook for health care, despite Schniepp’s positive predictions.
“I was a little concerned,” Becker said after Schniepp’s presentation. “We’re looking to an industry that is due for some serious changes under health-care reform for leadership” in job creation.
The decline in the older population also worries him, Becker said, because older residents are the biggest users of health care.
“Doom and gloom,” Becker said, shaking his head.
But James Cole, an attorney with the Ventura-based law firm Henderson & Wohlgemuth, said Schniepp’s forecast had increased his optimism.
“It may be depressing, but it’s certainly more encouraging than what we’ve heard in the last few years,” Cole said. “Especially when you compare it to Los Angeles and Santa Barbara counties, that makes Ventura look a little better.”
In straight number comparison, Ventura County has ridden out the recession more successfully than both Santa Barbara and Los Angeles counties. In high-technology jobs lost since April, 1990, Ventura County fared relatively well by comparison, losing 14.9% of its jobs, while Los Angeles County lost 41.5% and Santa Barbara County 35.9%.
Schniepp said some of that difference may be attributed to the high number of east county residents who commute to Los Angeles County. Their job losses would register there rather than here, he said, but Ventura County feels the impact of those layoffs through diminished consumer spending.
The January earthquake has had a surprisingly small effect on the county’s economy, he said. While building permits are up 41% from the first four months of 1993, Schniepp said construction jobs have not shown a net increase, dropping 5,100 since 1990.
