Latino Voters Could Exercise Sizable Clout

Ever since I moved to Los Angeles in 1970, I’ve anticipated the Latino political revolution.

Skeptical academics, pollsters, campaign consultants and political writing colleagues assured me it would never happen. They obviously thought the question of Latino power had been settled when Mexico lost the war with the United States and signed the treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in 1848.

Their analysis made superficial sense. Latino voting turnout was small. Statewide registration drives didn’t live up to their promise. No Latinos hold statewide office. A Times poll of voters leaving the polling booths after the 1992 presidential election found that just 7% were Latino. The figure was 6% in a Times poll post-election survey of June, 1994, primary voters. The numbers are especially small considering that California’s population is 28% Latino.

But there’s more to the story than these numbers.

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I’ve noticed that in the San Gabriel Valley, a vast stretch of suburbia and manufacturing towns reaching from East Los Angeles to San Bernardino County.

To a lot of people, the future of L.A. is described in the urban nightmare of a movie called “Blade Runner.” But to me, the San Gabriel Valley is a much better illustration of where we’ve been and where we’re going.

Settled by the Gabrielino Indians more than 1,000 years ago, the valley was taken over first by Spain, then Mexico and finally the United States. Its population has again changed dramatically in the last 40 years. From a predominantly white, middle-class enclave, the valley has become a rich and complex mixture of whites, Latinos, Asians and African Americans. Their life, to a great extent, is suburban. The single-family home remains an attainable dream.

When I stop in San Gabriel Valley city halls and school district headquarters, I’ve seen that that a large number, often a majority, of the council and school board members are Latinos. If Latinos weren’t voting, I wondered, how did all these people get elected?

At the same time, Latinos were increasing their representation in the L.A. County legislative delegation in Sacramento, as well as on the Los Angeles City Council and, for the first time, on the County Board of Supervisors.

The numbers are part of a statewide phenomenon. Francisco Dominguez of the National Assn. of Latino Elected Officials told me that from 1984 to 1993, the number of Latino elected officials in California increased from 460 to 797.

It’s this growing number of Latinos elected to local office that has encouraged Latino political activists to predict a larger vote this year. “I think all the pieces are in place for a dynamite turnout of Latinos in a governor’s race,” said Antonio Gonzalez, director of the Southwest Voter Research Institute, a leading Latino voter education and registration organization.

First of all, Gonzalez cites the growing number of Latino local officials, a sign of political activity in the Latino grass-roots. If people worry about school board members, his theory goes, then they’ll turn out when it comes to governor and U.S. senator.

He also said that Latino turnout should be pushed up by the presence on the ballot of the SOS--Save Our State--initiative, which cuts off public education and non-emergency medical care to illegal immigrants. Opponents of the measure call it racist and anti-Latino. Significantly, a Times poll in May showed that not all Latinos agree. Although 57% opposed it, a substantial number, 35%, said they would vote yes.

Finally, a Latino, Democratic state Sen. Art Torres of Los Angeles, is running for insurance commissioner. The prospect of a Latino in statewide office may increase the vote in Latino communities.

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A substantial Latino vote could be an important factor in determining the November elections, especially for the Democrats. The majority of Latinos are registered Democrats and Treasurer Kathleen Brown, the candidate for governor, and U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein will need almost all of them to win.

In 1978, the last time Democrats elected a governor, Democratic registration was 57% of the electorate. This year, it’s down to 49%. “Electing a Democratic governor today is much more challenging in terms of the numbers,” said John Whitehurst, a Brown spokesman. “Thus this (Latino) effort is critical. We must maximize votes in any place we can.”

Republican candidates usually get about 30% of the Latino vote, although Ronald Reagan received more. Anything Gov. Pete Wilson and GOP Senate candidate Rep. Michael Huffington get above the 30% mark is a bonus.

In the long run, the size of the turnout is more important than party allegiance. Election Day’s cold, hard figures will determine whether Latinos will have a stronger voice in education, immigration, health care and other issues that shape life in their community, no matter which party wins.