MOVING TOWARD PEACE : Potholes Mark Road to Madrid II : Diplomacy: Goal of ending all conflicts, as 1991 summit envisioned, is still daunting.

As Jordan’s King Hussein and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin shook hands for peace on the White House lawn Monday, American officials already were dreaming of a summit of all leaders of the volatile Middle East to end decades of war among nations, generations of tensions among peoples and millennia of conflict among religions.

The site: Madrid, where the peace process opened in 1991 and where American officials now hope it will formally close.

“It was launched in Madrid. This may well be the place to have everyone come back at the end for closure, for sanctification and for talks about what the future represents,” said a senior Administration official deeply involved in the negotiations.

But the road to Madrid II is full of potholes. The stunning breakthroughs over the last year--beginning with the Palestinian-Israeli declaration in September--look easy in contrast to what lies ahead.

The next six to 12 months will be the most critical in what is likely to be a process of three to five years, American, Israeli and Arab officials agree.

The best and worst cases are already visible.

“If everything goes according to schedule over the next year, then you’ll see expanded autonomy for the Palestinians in the West Bank, a peace treaty with Jordan and a breakthrough with Syria” that includes senior officials talking to each other about terms for full peace, said Ehud Sprinzak, a political scientist at Hebrew University in Jerusalem.

“The worst case,” Sprinzak added, “would be lots of distractions, violence and assassinations. The Palestinians could be in trouble because they don’t have a good administration or enough money to make (autonomy in the) Gaza (Strip) and Jericho work. Israeli settlers could become more militant. The Syrian track could stall. And fighting along the Lebanon border could get hotter.”

The overall goal is maintaining momentum as the various efforts by Israel and its immediate neighbors are woven together into a complete tapestry that will not easily unravel.

“Peace that is not comprehensive will be vulnerable to all sorts of disruptive forces,” said Yair Hirschfeld, a Haifa University political scientist who was pivotal last year in establishing secret Israeli-Palestinian talks in Oslo. “In a way, it would be a dangerous peace.”

Further, both the United States and Israel face elections in 1996. As the election draws closer, Rabin particularly will lose his ability to maneuver on an already controversial issue.

The next steps toward peace fall into five categories.

JORDAN: After the signing here Monday, prospects for a full-fledged peace treaty with this nation appear the most promising.

On the eve of the signing, Secretary of State Warren Christopher and Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres predicted in identical language that a treaty is “a matter of months.”

U.S. officials expect Monday’s nonbelligerency treaty to result in greater contact between Israelis and Jordanians: tourists mixing in the resort cities of Aqaba in Jordan and Eilat in Israel, for example.

A day after the Jordanian and Israeli foreign ministers met at the Dead Sea last week, an Israeli company was advertising tours of Jordan in the Jerusalem Post. Most cross-border travel is initially expected to be by Israelis, the senior U.S. official said.

PALESTINIANS: Despite the famous handshake 10 months ago between Rabin and Palestine Liberation Organization Chairman Yasser Arafat, the Israelis and Palestinians must still work out daunting issues. Among them: terms for expanding Palestinian autonomy in the West Bank; redeploying Israeli forces from Arab towns and Jewish settlements, and determining the timing and terms of elections.

“In less than a year, we went from almost zero contacts to . . . negotiations that are continual. . . ,” said Nabil Shaath, chief negotiator and planning minister of the Palestinian Authority in Gaza and Jericho.

Yet this track also holds the potential for slowing the peace process. Azmi Shuaibi, Palestinian minister of youth and sport, said Monday that Palestinian elections, originally expected in October, now seem unlikely this year.

The potential is also growing for an Israeli backlash against Palestinian autonomy, particularly in places such as the West Bank town of Hebron, also home to the most militant Jewish settlers.

SYRIA: This remains the biggest prize but also the biggest problem in the peace process and the most controversial step for Israel. All issues--notably how much peace for how much land and over what timetable--remain unsettled.

The most optimistic American scenario envisions Christopher’s shuttle diplomacy resulting in a breakthrough with Syria over the next six months, with a peace treaty sometime next year.

Yet Israeli support for returning the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Middle East War, does not exceed 5%, according to a recent survey. Support for limited or partial withdrawal has risen from 35% to 45% in the past year, but the only deal Syrian President Hafez Assad says he will accept is total withdrawal.

After using the need to confront Israel as justification for his rule, Assad must also transform public opinion to accept full relations with the Jewish state.

LEBANON: Peace efforts have become largely a function of progress with Syria, which has a 35,000-man garrison in Lebanon.

Because Lebanon is Israel’s most volatile neighbor, Israel wants a treaty that includes an end to attacks by Hezbollah and other extremist groups--six months after which it will withdraw from the southern Lebanese enclave it has dominated since the late 1970s.

The fragile state of Lebanon’s government will make enforcement of any agreement difficult.

OTHERS: Over the past three months, Israel and most other Arab states have made substantive progress. Negotiators are now developing projects to address threats to peace: regional arms proliferation, radical groups, population growth and socioeconomic instability.

U.S. officials are also optimistic because the five-part process has an indirect but critical component: an infrastructure for peace.

Wright reported from Washington and Parks from Jerusalem.