Welfare Rolls Stable After 5-Year Rise : L.A. County: Number of recipients reaches a plateau, suggesting an end to recession. But total remains high.

The number of people on welfare in Los Angeles County, which has more than doubled since mid-1989, appears finally to have stopped rising--an indication that the region is at last beginning to emerge from the recession, economists and welfare experts say.

But they warned that although welfare rolls appear to have stabilized, they have done so at a very high level. A whopping one in five county residents--more than 1.86 million people--now receive welfare payments or similar government benefits.

That’s more than twice as many as five years ago, but fewer than in May, when the long rise finally peaked.

“The leveling off is at crisis proportions,” said Michael Dear, a geography professor at USC and co-author of the book “Malign Neglect: Homelessness in an American City.”

If the economy continues to improve, the number of people on welfare is expected to shrink dramatically because the driving force behind the growth was the recession--not recipients’ unwillingness to work, said Madeleine Stoner, a professor of social work at USC.

But Stoner and other experts say that even if the economy booms, the rolls may never dip all the way down to pre-recession levels for several reasons, including:

* The years-long decline in the availability of manufacturing jobs for unskilled laborers, a segment dubbed “structurally unemployed.” Welfare may be the only recourse for them or their children.

* The aging of the population. Counter to the overall trend in the county, the number of elderly and disabled who receive welfare benefits known as in-home supportive services continues to rise.

* The influx of illegal immigrants into the state. They are ineligible for most benefits except prenatal and emergency medical care, but their citizen children qualify for Aid to Families With Dependent Children. Data on the percentage of welfare recipients who are children of illegal immigrants was not available. But county welfare officials said that 157,399 illegal immigrants received Medi-Cal benefits in October--25% of the total number of Medi-Cal recipients that month.

* The increasing number of women, particularly teen-agers, who give birth to children out of wedlock and then depend on government assistance to support themselves and their offspring. The rate of children born to single women in California has risen dramatically in the past 33 years. In 1970, only about 13% of all children were born out of wedlock. Last year, more than 35% of births in the state were to unmarried mothers.

The rate was much higher, 70%, among women under 20--the group most likely to turn to welfare and stay on it the longest--said Werner Schink, chief of research for the California Department of Social Services.

“Until we see a turnaround in the number of unwed births, it is not reasonable to expect significant reductions” in welfare dependency, Schink said.

Declining unemployment rates are another sign that that regional economy may be on the rebound, long after the recovery started in the rest of the nation. The unemployment rate in October was 7.8%, down from 11% in January. Although the actual number of jobs in the county decreased slightly compared to the year before, the decline is not as severe as it had been, said Peter Force, an analyst for the state Employment Development Department.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Welfare Cases Leveling Off

In March, 1989, the number of people on welfare began to rise steadily. The trend continued, with minor fluctuations, until May of this year. Since then, it has leveled off.

Welfare Cases in Los Angeles County (in millions):

Jan. 1989: 0.9 million

May 1994: 1.89 million

Oct. 1989: 1.86 million

Source: Los Angeles County Dept. of Public Social Services