Sorry, King, the Chairman Rules : If our Grammy swami is any prognosticator, Frank Sinatra will have a record fourth best album statuette come March, beating out ‘The Lion King.’

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When the Grammy nominations are announced Thursday, Frank Sinatra is almost certain to be among the finalists for best album of the year--the first step to becoming the first artist to win that top Grammy award four times.

The legendary performer will be represented with “Duets,” in which he reprised his greatest hits with singers ranging from Barbra Streisand to Bono. It was Sinatra’s first Top 10 album since 1967 and even spawned a Top 10 sequel last month.

His competition is expected to include two other albums that salute America’s musical past: Eric Clapton’s “From the Cradle,” an homage to such blues masters as Willie Dixon and Elmore James, and “Common Thread: The Songs of the Eagles,” which features country stars singing hits by the ‘70s rock band.

This focus on old music is apt to revive charges that the Grammys fail to keep pace with vital currents in contemporary music.

In the other top Grammy category, best single of the year, Boyz II Men’s old-fashioned harmony showcase “I’ll Make Love to You” and Mariah Carey’s instant anthem “Hero” are expected to be the front-runners.

The awards are decided by the nearly 7,000 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences--mostly recording artists, songwriters, producers, arrangers, engineers and others involved in the creative and technical ends of the music business. They’ll be presented on March 1 at the Shrine Auditorium.

Here are the likely candidates in this year’s competition, which covers the period from Oct. 1, 1993, to Sept. 30, 1994. Best album and single are listed in order of nomination probability.

Best Album

Frank Sinatra, “Duets.” Many voters won’t be able to resist the urge to cap Sinatra’s unparalleled career with a record-setting fourth best-album award. The 79-year-old singer previously won for “Come Dance With Me!” in 1959, “September of My Years” in 1965 and the anthology “A Man and His Music” in 1966. Now let’s just hope they don’t cut him off again in the middle of his acceptance speech.

“The Lion King” soundtrack. Disney’s “Beauty and the Beast” soundtrack was nominated for best album two years ago and this collection, featuring two hits by Elton John, was even more successful.

Eric Clapton, “From the Cradle.” Grammy voters love it when a favorite artist pays tribute to his or her roots. In addition, Clapton is almost certain to win in the category of best traditional blues performance.

Boyz II Men, “II.” Voters like this quartet’s courtly, romantic sound, but they’re even more drawn to its clean-cut, positive image. Plus, the Boyz dominated the charts throughout the voting period.

“Common Thread: The Songs of the Eagles.” Compilations by various artists usually don’t make the finals, but voters love the Eagles, whose “Hell Freezes Over” reunion album came out too late for this year’s awards. And unlike many tribute albums, “Common Thread” had a story to tell--how much contemporary country owes to the Eagles and other California rockers of the ‘70s.

R.E.M.’s “Monster” heads the list of likely near-misses. The Georgia band’s last two albums made the finals, but they were more melodic and accessible. It’s hard to see notoriously conservative Grammy voters rallying behind a brash, hard-rocking album.

Bonnie Raitt has won more Grammys (seven) than any other artist in the past five years. But “Longing in Their Hearts” didn’t have the staying power of her two previous collections.

If every Grammy voter who went to one of Barbra Streisand’s concerts last year votes for “The Concert,” it’s in. But many may prefer to cast their ballots for new studio collections. That same thinking may hurt the chances of another superstar live album, “The Three Tenors in Concert 1994,” by Jose Carreras, Placido Domingo and Luciano Pavarotti.

Best Single

Boyz II Men, “I’ll Make Love to You.” Industry heavyweight Babyface wrote and produced this smash, which logged 14 weeks at No. 1. That matches a record set by Whitney Houston’s “I Will Always Love You,” which won this award last year. Singles don’t have to top the charts for three months to win this award, but it doesn’t hurt.

Mariah Carey, “Hero.” Any similarity between this inspirational ballad and Houston’s “Greatest Love of All”--a best single nominee in 1987--was purely intentional. And the cloning worked: The song is apt to put Carey back in the finals for the first time since her breakthrough hit “Vision of Love” four years ago.

Elton John, “Can You Feel the Love Tonight.” The pop veteran has written and recorded many songs as good as this radio-ready valentine--only one of which was nominated for this award. But this one has an advantage that they didn’t: It was featured in a box-office smash, “The Lion King.”

Celine Dion, “The Power of Love.” This pristine ballad topped both the pop and adult contemporary charts. It was produced by Grammy MVP David Foster, who has won as best producer in two of the last three years.

Sheryl Crow, “All I Wanna Do.” This hit combines an acoustic, folkie sensibility with whimsical pop appeal. And Crow had high visibility: She was featured everywhere from Woodstock ’94 to the “If I Were a Carpenter” tribute album.

Melissa Etheridge had a big breakout year and could easily make the finals. But her support may be split between two potent entries, “Come to My Window” and “I’m the Only One.”

Two meditations on life in the age of AIDS also have a good chance. Seal’s “Prayer for the Dying” has the sense of drama and social consciousness of the Englishman’s first hit, “Crazy,” which was nominated for best song three years ago.

Bruce Springsteen’s “Streets of Philadelphia,” which was featured in the Jonathan Demme film “Philadelphia,” won an Oscar for best original song. But a full year has passed, and there was no Springsteen album to refocus attention on the song.

Best Song

The nominees for this songwriter award often overlap with the best single candidates. So the finalists are likely to include “Hero” (which Mariah Carey co-wrote with her co-producer, Walter Afanasieff), “I’ll Make Love to You” (written by Babyface), “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” (which Elton John co-wrote with Tim Rice) and “The Power of Love” (written by Mary Susan Applegate, Candy DeRouge, Gunther Mende and Jennifer Rush).

For the fifth spot, the best bet is “I Swear” (written by Gary Baker and Frank J. Meyers). The song was a No. 1 hit in both pop (for All-4-One) and country (for John Michael Montgomery).

Best New Artist

It’s Crow vs. Crows. Sheryl Crow had one of the year’s most engaging pop and adult contemporary hits; Counting Crows were featured everywhere from the Wall Street Journal to the cover of Rolling Stone. It’s likely to be very close in the final balloting, though historically solo performers have an edge in this category.

The other likely nominees: Ace of Base, All-4-One and country singer Tim McGraw. Also possible: Green Day, Hole, Liz Phair, Me’Shell NdegeOcello, Lisa Loeb & Nine Stories, Beck, Collective Soul, Crash Test Dummies and the Offspring.

Other Categories

This year, the academy is adding best album categories in pop, rock, R&B; and country. Multiple-artist compilations aren’t allowed.

Best Pop Album: None of the five likely finalists for best album is eligible here, which clears the way for a new slate, headed by Raitt’s “Longing in Their Hearts.” Grammy voters won’t want to see her go home empty-handed. The other likely nominees: Ace of Base’s “The Sign,” Celine Dion’s “The Colour of My Love,” Carreras/Domingo/Pavarotti’s “The Three Tenors in Concert 1994” and Seal’s “Seal.”

Best Rock Album: The leading candidates are R.E.M.’s “Monster” and Pearl Jam’s “Vs.” The latter album may get a boost from the brisk sales pace of the Seattle band’s current album, “Vitalogy.” Other likely nominees: the Stone Temple Pilots’ “Purple,” Soundgarden’s “Superunknown” and Neil Young & Crazy Horse’s “Sleeps With Angels.”

Best R&B; Album: No matter what happens in the top categories, Boyz II Men’s “II” is bound to win here. The strongest challenger: Anita Baker’s first album in four years, “Rhythm of Love.” Also: Luther Vandross’ “Songs,” Tevin Campbell’s “I’m Ready” and R. Kelly’s “12 Play.”

Best Country Album: Since compilations aren’t allowed (bye-bye, “Common Thread”), the front-runner is Alan Jackson’s “Who I Am,” the only best-album finalist at the Country Music Assn. Awards that’s also eligible here. Also: Mary Chapin Carpenter’s “Stones in the Road,” Vince Gill’s “When Love Finds You” and a pair of debut albums that topped both the country and pop charts--John Michael Montgomery’s “Kickin’ It Up” and Tim McGraw’s “Not a Moment Too Soon.”

Best Alternative Music Performance: Green Day and Nine Inch Nails, two of the prime, mud-caked attractions at Woodstock ‘94, are the front-runners. Green Day’s “Dookie” and Nine Inch Nails’ “The Downward Spiral” will likely square off against the Beastie Boys’ “Ill Communication,” Tori Amos’ “Under the Pink” and Hole’s “Live Through This.”

Best Traditional Pop Vocal Performance: If this category were called best traditional pop album, Frank Sinatra’s “Duets” would be the overwhelming favorite. It’s the kind of high-concept, event album that Grammy voters love. But the name of the category calls attention to Sinatra’s diminished vocals and may subtly boost the chances of live albums by Barbra Streisand (“The Concert”) and Tony Bennett (“MTV Unplugged”). The other likely nominees: Barry Manilow’s “Singin’ With the Big Bands” and Michael Crawford’s “Favorite Love Songs.”

Best Rap Solo Performance: Controversial superstar Snoop Doggy Dogg will probably make the finals with one of his No. 1 rap hits, “Gin & Juice” or “What’s My Name?” But many Grammy voters will be more comfortable with the positive social messages of Ice Cube’s “It Was a Good Day,” Queen Latifah’s “U.N.I.T.Y.” and Shaquille O’Neal’s “(I Know I Got) Skillz.” Da Brat, a hot female rapper, has the other top contender, “Funkdafied.”

Best Rap Performance by a Duo or Group: “Whatta Man,” Salt-N-Pepa’s saucy collaboration with En Vogue, would have won in a landslide, but it was placed in the R&B; duo/group category. The trio will probably still make the finals here with “None of Your Business,” but the race is now much more competitive. Also: Warren G & Nate Dogg’s “Regulate,” Heavy D & the Boyz’s “Got Me Waiting,” Public Enemy’s “Give It Up” and Bone Thugs-N-Harmony’s “Thuggish Ruggish Bone.”