WESTSIDE COVER STORY : Crime Takes a Fall : After Decades on the Rise, Statistics Show Steep Drop in Murder and Other Felonies

The stories are familiar yet still frighten us. A Marina del Rey businessman is shot and killed over a simple traffic dispute. A pack of teen-agers torture a homeless man to death in an abandoned Hollywood tenement. An elderly Santa Monica woman is beaten and then murdered in the one place where she should be safe--her home.

But for all the bone-chilling stories, and the rampant fears they evoke, there is an indisputable fact about crime reported on the Westside:

It has dropped.

In the four Los Angeles Police Department divisions composing the West Bureau, homicides fell 8.4% in 1994 compared to the year before, while assaults dropped almost 12%. Robberies in the four divisions took an especially sharp plunge, down 25% from 1993.

Just-released statistics for 1994 show other Westside areas also are experiencing fewer reported crimes, continuing a two-year trend (see chart). Beverly Hills posted 32.7% fewer robberies in 1994 than in 1993; Culver City reported burglaries had dropped about 26% during the same period; auto thefts fell 34% in Santa Monica.

(Final 1994 statistics are not available for the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, which polices West Hollywood, Malibu, Marina del Rey, Baldwin Hills and Ladera Heights. But officials say they are optimistic their data will show similar trends.)

The most significant change, perhaps, is the drop in violent crime--murder, rape, robbery and assault. Amid sobering news accounts of brutal crimes plaguing every community, statistics for every Westside city and LAPD division show that such violent offenses fell at least 7.5% and as much as 27.3% in 1994 compared to 1993.

“I read three papers a day,” said Santa Monica Police Chief James Butts. “If I didn’t know what reality was, I’d say, ‘Boy, isn’t it terrible out there?’ ”

From a decades-long perspective, it is.

Murder rates in the state more than tripled in the past 30 years, going from 3.7 homicides per 100,000 people in 1963 to 12.9 in 1993. The number of violent crimes during those three decades also rose at a staggering pace--from 42,362 in 1963 to 336,100 in 1993, a climb far surpassing the population growth, which did not quite double in that period.

Still, the fact that Westside crime has been dropping since the early 1990s--with the largest plunge in 1994--has pleased, even surprised, law enforcement agencies and a crime-weary public.

“We look at (crime statistics) to see if we’re going in the right or the wrong direction, and we’re encouraged,” said LAPD Deputy Chief Ron Frankle, commander of the four West Bureau divisions. “We see a steady progression down, and we’re heartened.”

The decline, seen to varying degrees in cities across the nation, has left police and criminologists puzzled. They offer various theories.

The state’s prison population has tripled since 1980. Stiffer sentences have been meted out, especially with the “three strikes” law, which puts violent felons in prison for 25 years to life for their third felony offense. The public has shown a greater willingness to participate in policing. And computer technology is lauded for giving officers the ability to target likely areas of crime for specific enforcement such as increased patrols or sting operations.

Other theories abound, but the only thing the experts agree on is that there is no single reason for the drop in crime.

“A lot of things combine to make the results we’re seeing,” the LAPD’s Frankle said. “But the question is how to weight each item, and I don’t think we can.”

Added Beverly Hills Police Lt. Frank Salcido: “It would be nice to be able to say, ‘This is the reason we see incidents of one crime go up or another crime decrease.’ But much of the time that’s not possible.”

Consider a rash of Rolex watch robberies in the early 1990s. They once drew national attention, but the sometimes-deadly holdups virtually ceased with no easy explanation.

“We may have caught most of the perpetrators, or maybe we got the main fence of stolen watches. Maybe some people stopped wearing their Rolexes,” Salcido said. “We can only speculate.”

Hollywood, with its problems of street crime and transient youths, saw violent offenses drop 17.8% in 1994 compared to 1993. That includes a 15.7% decline in auto thefts, with robberies dropping more than 25%.

In Beverly Hills, where many residents pay for private patrols and advanced home security systems, residential burglaries fell 8.3%. And, after robberies surged in 1993, police saturated the downtown area with officers. In 1994, holdups dropped 32.7%.

A city enjoying one of the biggest reversals in crime was Santa Monica.

Crime rose in the city through the 1980s and into 1991, before a slight decrease in 1992, said Chief Butts. The big drop came last year: Violent crimes plumeted 27.3%, with the largest declines reported in robberies and aggravated assaults, which fell 29% and 27%, respectively.

Butts said part of the drop is attributable to regional trends, but much of the department’s success comes from an emphasis on computer-tracked crime analysis, which aids in targeting problem areas. The technology allows the department to predict where crime may occur so deployments can be adjusted, he said.

Also affecting the decline, he said, has been the City Council’s shift to policies that are more accommodating to law enforcement. One example is a park closure ordinance that, police say, has helped clear out city parks in which late-night drug sales were prevalent. Another example is a new prohibition on aggressive panhandling, which also helps police stop drug-dealing and other crimes, Butts said.

The drop in crime also can be attributed to some surprising factors. After the January, 1994, Northridge earthquake, for example, crime dropped because of high-profile policing and because anxiety does not spare anyone, including criminals.

Less surprisingly, the proliferation of home and auto security devices has proven a reliable foil to break-ins, criminologists say.

Nationwide, crime rates generally had been rising since the late 1950s, said Allan Abrahamse, a mathematician who specializes in criminal justice statistics for Rand, the Santa Monica-based think tank. Then, in the mid-1980s, there was a short period when crime declined. The rates rose again, until this most recent decline. Now, it is a matter of conjecture if the downturn is here to stay, he said.

But do the statistics really tell the story? Some police, criminologists and citizens question the figures.

Some experts estimate that approximately half of all violent crimes are not reported to authorities. Police almost always hear about murders and bank robberies, but many rapes, assaults and incidents of domestic violence are not disclosed.

Even lesser crimes may not be reported, for various reasons. Some agencies do not send officers to take reports on routine auto burglaries, for example, and victims often feel frustrated and less inclined to report the crimes, said Culver City Police Lt. Tom Gabor. Also, if the monetary loss is small and the victim does not plan to report a theft to an insurance carrier, Gabor said, it also is unlikely he or she will notify police.

“Statistics have to be taken in perspective,” he noted. “(Crime) is still out there.”

Even as reported crime has dropped, the public’s fear of it has risen--some say dramatically.

Many citizens are scared to walk on the street or use an automated teller machine after dark. “I would never go out at night . . . and I certainly wouldn’t use an ATM,” said Martha Hunt, a member of Hollywood’s Melrose Hill Neighborhood Assn.

Businesses and residents buy extra protection from private security agencies. Weapons such as pepper spray have grown increasingly popular, and gun sales nationally have risen by almost $1 billion since 1988.

Even in cities such as Beverly Hills, where the ratio of residents to police is one of the highest in the nation--at 245 to one--the fear of crime is almost constant.

For years, Beverly Hills resident Helene Lederman has taken an active role in the local Neighborhood Watch program. But, she said, although she does not dispute the new crime statistics, she does not feel any safer.

“Honestly, I was shocked to find the crime rate had dropped,” Lederman said. The fear, she said, is part of everyday life. When she went to the movies recently, Lederman said, she was anxious just walking the width of an alley from the theater to her car. “I was nervous as hell,” she recalled.

In Beverly Hills, the December robbery and murder of a popular retail merchant in her shop made crime very real for those who knew storekeeper Sherry Morgan.

Said Lederman, “I think a major factor of fear is (that the community) knew Sherry.”

Added LAPD’s Frankle: “Friends talk to each other about crimes they’ve heard about, or read about, or knew had happened to another friend. That is what impresses the public. A 5 or 10% drop in crime does not impact on the public’s memory.”

The goal of any anti-crime effort should be in reducing fear from people’s lives, he said. Otherwise, authorities know, all the statistics in the world won’t make people feel safe.

Said one Culver City police officer: “If people in Bel-Air fear crime to such an extent they hide behind barred windows and security gates, their fear affects their lives as much as actual incidents of crime.”

Experts are willing to agree that many factors have an impact on the public’s perception of crime, they are in accord on one major cause--the news media.

“It’s your fault,” Abrahamse quipped to a reporter. He added that the media’s relentless coverage of sensational crimes magnifies people’s belief that horrific acts of violence are almost commonplace.

Police echo that sentiment, complaining that the media too often report on incidents that reflect poorly on law enforcement or simply scare the citizenry out of all proportion.

Said Santa Monica’s Butts: “If (the media) would report on what the police are doing--so people would know we’re not just sitting around and that we care about their needs--(the public would) feel a lot better.”

But there is a flip side to the media’s oft-criticized reporting. As the fear of victimization has risen, so has community participation in Neighborhood Watch programs. In Beverly Hills alone, more than 1,250 residents attended 24 meetings held last year. Other law enforcement agencies also reported increasing participation in neighborhood policing efforts.

The police-led programs are aimed at providing a positive contact between law enforcement and community members. At the meetings, officers pass along crime tips and encourage residents to pick up the telephone and call police if they are concerned.

“Often, people will say, ‘Oh, I didn’t want to bother the sheriffs,’ but I tell them that’s why we have the sheriffs,” said Nancy Greenstein, West Hollywood public safety administrator. “In Neighborhood Watch, participants learn to feel free to call on a suspicious incident,” she said.

In the end, authorities say, the best hope for keeping crime at bay is in educating the public. Indeed, they say, citizens may hold the key to their own safety.

In January, one Beverly Hills man showed the merit of that approach.

Hearing a noise on his front porch, the homeowner went to investigate and found a man standing outside the door. When the resident asked the man why he was there, the stranger gave a seemingly plausible story about looking for a friend and coming to the wrong house.

At first, the homeowner was ready to dismiss the incident. But then he remembered the basic tenet of Neighborhood Watch: Always call police if a situation seems suspicious.

He called, police arrived and, after a chase, nabbed the man. They discovered he was being sought by the LAPD for breaking into a house and raping a woman only hours before.

“The capture of this violent felon stopped him from striking again,” said Beverly Hills Sgt. Dexter Cummins.

“He wasn’t standing on the front patio because he was selling candy,” Cummins said. “Just think how much grief we’ve prevented with this capture.”

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Tracking a Two-Year Trend

Major crimes have declined from 1992 to 1994, according to statistics from the LAPD’s four Westside divisions and the three other Westside police departments. Statistics for areas covered by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department were not available.

AUTO HOMICIDE RAPE ASSAULT ROBBERY BURGLARY THEFT WEST L.A. DIV. 1992 11 62 952 1,233 2,532 3,743 1994 10 45 840 949 2,169 2,641 % CHANGE -9.0 -27.4 -11.8 -23.0 -14.3 -29.4 HOLLYWOOD DIV. 1992 43 132 2,412 2,595 3,666 5,011 1994 29 123 2,093 2,244 2,378 3,715 % CHANGE -32.5 -7.0 -13.2 -13.5 -35.1 -25.9 WILSHIRE DIV. 1992 52 116 3,019 3,731 4,062 6,234 1994 56 104 2,704 2,870 2,629 4,664 % CHANGE +7.7 -10.3 -10.4 -23.0 -35.3 -25.2 PACIFIC DIV. 1992 25 108 1,606 1,575 3,028 4,972 1994 25 70 1,400 1,193 2,694 3,592 % CHANGE 0 -35.2 -12.8 -24.2 -11.0 -27.7 BEVERLY HILLS P.D. 1992 0 6 73 212 445 291 1994 3 7 75 189 454 220 % CHANGE +300% +16.0 +2.7 -11.0 +2.0 -24.4 SANTA MONICA P.D. 1992 7 50 645 704 1,487 1,678 1994 8 46 489 507 1,431 1,166 % CHANGE +14.3 -8.0 -24.2 -28.0 -3.8 -30.5 CULVER CITY P.D. 1992 2 3 125 290 451 551 1994 1 6 186 229 302 442 % CHANGE -50.0 +100 +48.8 -21.0 -33.0 -19.8