U.S. Speedway Battle Is Tonight : Motorcycles: With one of the weakest fields in years, there will be many contenders for the national title at the Fairgrounds.

Brad Oxley is sure he’ll win it.

So is Steve Lucero.

And veteran motorcycle rider Bobby Schwartz, a two-time champion, thinks this could be his year again.

The riders certainly won’t lack confidence when the first flag drops at 8 tonight at the 27th U.S. National Speedway Championship at the Orange County Fairgrounds.

In a 17-racer field that is considered to be one of the weakest in years, promoter Harry Oxley, Brad’s dad, says any of about a half-dozen racers have the chance to take the checkered flag.

“At this level of racing, there isn’t a favorite,” he said. “There are about six guys who could win this thing, and whoever is hot is going to win it.

“You have to put in five near-perfect rides,” he said. “If you have mechanical problems, you’re out of it.”

There was a sense of disappointment when defending champion Sam Ermolenko announced he would not return to the U.S. for the event. He chose to remain in Europe, where he is under contract with an international racing team.

Sam’s brother, Charles, the 1989 rookie of the year, was expected to return from England to ride in his second national event. But he suffered a broken collarbone in a race last week and will not be available.

So who are the favorites?

Brad Oxley seems to rate at least a nod because he won the 1995 speedway points title.

Lucero is the reigning California champion and won the Fair Derby at the Costa Mesa track in July.

Schwartz, 39, the granddaddy of local speedway, recently recovered from a broken collarbone. The 22-year veteran was injured July 7 at the Fairgrounds in a collision with three other riders. But six weeks later he came back to win an event at Costa Mesa. He won his second national title in 1989, and some think he is overdue for his third.

Charlie Venegas, a four-time indoor ice-racing champion, could be the dark horse, because he has been running exceptionally well lately.

Schwartz doesn’t see himself as washed up and he’s confident he’ll win. He has a fairly new British overhead cam engine, usually reserved for long-track racing, which he rode to victory in Costa Mesa last month.

“I have talent and skill and ambition,” Schwartz said. “Maybe not as much as I had 10 years ago, but I’d like to be the oldest rider to win a national.”

There are several elements to a good speedway race, riders agree. Concentration and confidence are important, as all these guys have demonstrated.

“That’s what speedway is all about,” said Lucero, 31, who has dropped 65 pounds after sitting out last year. “You can be the best you can be all year, but when it comes to the nationals, you have to believe you are the best.”

Then there is luck.

“No rider wants to admit it,” Lucero said, “but basically on any night you need a little bit of luck.”

Although several talented European riders are entered, when it all comes right down to it, the final result might be decided by the eighth-of-a-mile track at the Fairgrounds, where familiarity over the years has often bred success.