A Bailey Loss Would Make for Classic Upset : Breeders’ Cup: Jockey rides 3-5 favorite Cigar in a $3-million race he has won three of the last four years. Rain makes an off track likely for all seven races.

Life is funny. That’s not a lyric, it’s the apropos explanation for what has happened to jockey Jerry Bailey in the Breeders’ Cup.

He has missed with 24 other Breeders’ Cup mounts but has won the $3-million Classic three of the last four years, mainly by being the right guy at the right time. And it would appear that the time is right again today, when he rides heavily favored Cigar at Belmont Park.

But first, flip back the pages to 1991 and the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs. Black Tie Affair was a horse with a chance in a field with no distinct favorite. Pat Day could have ridden him, but his commitment was to Summer Squall, who had carried him to victory in the Preakness the year before.

The mount on Black Tie Affair went to Bailey, who had never ridden him before. Black Tie Affair usually won races only one way, on the lead, and Bailey rode him to perfection. The gray horse had enough in the tank to withstand all challengers and won the $3-million race by 1 1/4 lengths, clinching horse-of-the-year honors as well.

Black Tie Affair was retired after the Classic, so Bailey never got to ride him again.

Two years later, the estimable French trainer, Andre Fabre, brought an undistinguished 5-year-old to Santa Anita for the Classic. Most everyone knew that Arcangues ran well only when his back wasn’t bothering him, which was hardly ever, and the grass horse didn’t know dirt from daisies. Maybe that’s why Mike Smith, whom Fabre had approached, rode Devil His Due in the race instead.

You wouldn’t bet on Arcangues if they dropped you into a time machine and ran the race again. Bailey didn’t even know how to pronounce the horse’s name when he climbed on his back. But at 133-1, Arcangues ran down Bertrando in the stretch, scoring the biggest upset in the history of the Breeders’ Cup.

Arcangues hung around California for another year, but the New York-based Bailey never rode him again.

There was less kismet last year with Concern. At least Bailey had been riding the colt before the Breeders’ Cup. But they had experienced more frustration than good luck--a second in the Travers, third in the Molson Export Million and another second in a photo finish with Soul Of The Matter in the Super Derby.

Then on Breeders’ Cup day at Churchill Downs, Concern ran the race of his life, and Jerry Dale Bailey, the son of a Texas dentist, was in the Classic’s winner’s circle again.

Early this year, when Cigar was just emerging, Bailey was still linked with Concern, who was with trainer Dick Small at the New Orleans Fair Grounds.

In March, Bailey was there to ride in a workout. The Fair Grounds, rebuilt after a fire, has two finish lines, and Bailey, mistaking the first for the second, prematurely stood in the irons and botched the finish of the workout. Small, in no mood to talk to anybody, went straight to the barn in a huff, and Bailey says they have not spoken since.

Smith now rides Concern, who goes into today’s Classic with only two victories in seven races since he won the big race at Churchill Downs.

“It’s really never been explained to me why I lost the mount,” Bailey said. “I’ve heard second-handedly that [Small] was concerned early on about an eventual conflict with Cigar.”

Speaking at Del Mar last summer, Small alluded to the conflict but didn’t blame the unfortunate Fair Grounds workout as the reason for the change.

Cigar is 3-5 on the morning line, having won nine consecutive races this year and 11 overall, but Bailey said:

“After what happened with Concern, I’m convinced that nothing in this game is a given. But I’m more confident than I was with any of my other Classic horses. They say there are some new faces in this race, but we’re used to that. We’ve been traveling the country all year, seeking out the new faces to run against, and been beating them.”

Considering a forecast that included a warning about street flooding Friday night and continued rain and heavy winds today, there’s a good chance that the seven Breeders’ Cup races will be run on off tracks. Cigar ran on a wet-fast track while winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup by a length over Unaccounted For three weeks ago here, but he’s never raced on a surface that’s been sloppy or muddy.

“He’s usually strong and aggressive until he gets by the last horse, and then he relaxes,” said Bailey, discussing the Gold Cup.

“But in this race, after he put away Thunder Gulch, he came out of the bridle before he went by Star Standard. Star Standard was drifting out, so maybe it was because my horse was intimidated, rather than not liking the surface. But he didn’t seem as comfortable as he usually is. Then when I hit him on the shoulder with the whip [in mid-stretch], he responded and acted like he usually does.”

Despite his lack of success in other Breeders’ Cup races, the three Classic triumphs have been worth nearly half a million dollars to the 38-year-old jockey.

And if Cigar doesn’t add to that total, Bailey will be the most surprised person at the track.

“It would shock me if somebody beat him,” the jockey said.

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Breeders’ Cup Notes

The forecast called for heavy overnight rain that was not supposed to stop until after the Mile, the fourth of the Breeders’ Cup races, has been run. Temperatures are supposed to be in the 60s. . . . All 30,000 reserved seats have been sold for today, but the crowd might still be less than 40,000. For the 11 previous Breeders’ Cups, the smallest crowd was 42,568, at Aqueduct in 1985. . . . One of Cigar’s chief opponents in the Classic, Unaccounted For, runs effectively on off tracks.

The first Breeders’ Cup race will be run at 8:55 a.m., California time. The races are starting early because NBC is juggling them with its coverage of Notre Dame-Boston College football. . . . Woodbine officials are unhappy with their Nov. 2 date for next year’s Breeders’ Cup. They would have preferred an earlier Saturday, which would give the suburban Toronto track a better shot at good weather. Woodbine has been told that the reason for the later date is NBC’s commitment to Notre Dame football.

The 1997 Breeders’ Cup will be run in California, at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park or Del Mar. The decision is expected to be made at the next meeting of the Breeders’ Cup directors, in early December. “We need to hit a home run in California,” said Ted Bassett, president of the Breeders’ Cup. “We’re looking at a small crowd this year, and perhaps poor weather at Woodbine. We’ll need a shot in the arm by the time we get to California. We need good weather and a big crowd.”

In four Breeders’ Cups, Santa Anita and Hollywood Park have averaged more than 61,000. Del Mar is not capable of handling a crowd that size. In discussing that, Bassett said, “The advantage Del Mar would give us is big off-track betting play at the Santa Anita and Hollywood Park sites. Because of that, our handle would probably be better than if we ran the races at either Hollywood or Santa Anita, and Del Mar became an off-track site.”

Two of the first four Breeders’ Cups were run at Hollywood Park, but none since 1987. A 10-year absence is not expected to be much of a talking point when the Breeders’ Cup directors gather. Santa Anita has had the Breeders’ Cup in 1986 and 1993.

Ocean View, a close second to Tipically Irish in the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita, has been scratched because of a cracked shin bone. She was 12-1 on the morning line. . . . Siphon, second to Track Gal in the Ancient Title at Santa Anita in his last start, won Friday’s $100,000 Sport Page Handicap by a neck over In Case at Belmont Park. The 4-year-old colt, trained by Richard Mandella and ridden by Kent Desormeaux, paid $6.20 and ran seven furlongs in 1:22 on a fast track. . . . The turf course was listed as good, and Diplomatic Jet, at 6-1, ran 1 1/4 miles over it in 2:04 4/5 to win the $125,000 Knickerbocker Stakes. . . . In another race on the card, Wekiva Springs, now being trained by Cigar’s trainer, Bill Mott, won for the first time in three New York starts. Wekiva Springs’ victory at 1 1/16 miles was his seventh in 12 starts.