This Primary Still Carries Some Punch

California’s presidential primary again has been relegated to small print for the archives--an asterisk for academe--but somehow we’ll live with it. Although next Tuesday’s election won’t matter a whit in choosing a Republican nominee, this ballot is guaranteed to produce momentous and telling results.

To start with, although Sen. Bob Dole already has clinched the GOP nomination, California Republicans will tell us just how enthusiastic they really are about their prospective standard-bearer. And that will provide a clue as to whether Dole has any real hope of upsetting President Clinton in this state next November.

The conventional way to measure any candidate’s support is to look at his percentage of the actual vote. To be sure, that determines the winner. But I’ll be focused on another figure: Dole’s percentage of the possible vote. My test for Dole will be the number of registered Republicans he can entice to vote for him. Not just the percentage of people who do vote, but the percentage of all those who could if they cared enough to.

There is some historical perspective here. In 1992, President George Bush drew 74% of the primary vote against Pat Buchanan, but just 30% of the registered GOP vote. Less than half of California’s registered voters went to the polls that June. In November, Clinton crushed Bush in the state.

In 1988, however, Bush won 39% of the registered vote in the primary and carried California narrowly in November. In 1984, President Ronald Reagan picked up 46% of the registered vote in the primary, and carried California by a near-landslide.

There are flaws in this test. But the lesson is clear: The higher percentage of registered voters a GOP candidate can attract in the primary, the better his prospects are in November.

For Dole, I’d think a bare minimum would be 33%--or about 1.8 million votes. Anything less and the “Hero of the Heartland” probably should not waste much time or money on this state next fall--unless he can sign on Colin Powell as a running mate.

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But forget the presidential nominating process, which has forgotten California. We always have our ballot measures. And voters on Tuesday will make some truly momentous decisions.

One measure--Proposition 198--proposes the most significant shake-up of California’s election system in four decades. It would change the way we choose our legislators, governors and even presidential nominees. An “open” primary would be created, allowing citizens to vote in any party’s primary, regardless of registration.

California now has a “closed” primary, restricting participation to party members.

The parties and politicians strongly oppose shifting to an open primary, citing possible “mischief” and loss of party purity. But their main objection, I suspect, is some perceived threat to party control--which is virtually nonexistent anyway--and plain inconvenience. If Democratic candidates had to worry about moderate Republicans in a primary, for example, they’d have to campaign harder and rework their ideological mantras.

But it would be a lot more interesting for ordinary voters. And it might even produce officeholders who were more pragmatic and closer to the public mainstream.

Also Tuesday, voters must decide whether they’re serious about repairing this once-classy state or are willing to let it keep falling apart--specifically, its decrepit highways and deteriorating schools.

There are a couple of minimal financing proposals on the ballot, both of them low-pain bond issues. Proposition 192 provides $2 billion to make bridges and overpasses safe from earthquakes. In truth, that’s going to be done anyway. This measure would speed it up and free $2 billion in gas taxes and tolls for regular highway projects.

Proposition 203--not to be confused with the alleged “terrible 200s” of so-called tort reform--would provide $3 billion for public school construction, from kindergartens to universities.

Recently, however, the electorate has been stingy, rejecting 18 of 23 bond issues in the last six years.

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This also will be a momentous election for the Legislature, perhaps the most significant in 30 years. California voters demanded term limits and they’re here in full force.

Tony Quinn, editor of the Target Book, which tracks legislative races, estimates 28 new Assembly members and five senators will, in effect, be elected Tuesday. That’s because their districts are “safe”--dominated by one party--and the real battle is in the primary.

It’s ironic that Californians insisted on a steady stream of new legislators, but now with their first big chance to choose a bunch, few voters are paying attention. Blame it on a meaningless “early” presidential primary.