Light O.C. Vote Likely Despite Lively Issues

With both a newly indicted local assemblyman and a bitterly debated initiative on Tuesday’s ballot, one might expect Orange County voters to turn out in droves for this year’s primary election.

But that is highly unlikely, according to political consultants and observers who fear participation in Tuesday’s election may sink to the dismal levels of the 1994 primary. Only 34% of the county’s registered voters bothered to cast a ballot that year, the lowest turnout in a primary or general election here in at least 40 years, based on records kept by the county registrar of voters.

“There’s been a real fizzle in voter interest in this primary,” said Dan Wooldridge, a Santa Ana-based political consultant, who predicts a turnout of only about 32% on Tuesday. “Sadly, we’re just seeing a lot of disinterest out there.”

The apathy, Wooldridge and others said, extends even to the 67th Assembly District, home to newly elected, now-indicted Assemblyman Scott Baugh. Placed in office only six months ago, Baugh was charged Friday with four felonies and 18 misdemeanors in connection with alleged misconduct in last year’s election. He has denied wrongdoing.

Political analysts said it remains to be seen whether voters in the district will support Baugh despite his indictment. More certain, they said, is that the issue will have a relatively minor impact on the election turnout here, drawing neither Baugh’s supporters nor his opponents to the polls in substantial numbers.

One exception to the widespread apathy may be in South County, however, where the debate over Measure S, a hotly contested ballot initiative on the future of the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station, appears to be driving a near-record number of requests for absentee ballots.

By Friday, about 170,000 of Orange County’s 1,174,528 registered voters had requested absentee ballots, and more than 75,000 had turned them in, county officials said.

For last year’s June primary--which featured Measure R, a controversial tax hike proposal that eventually lost at the polls--more than 175,000 voters requested absentee ballots. More significantly, a record 150,071 voters returned them, more than double the number of ballots submitted by Friday, according to county Registrar Rosalyn Lever.

Proportionately, the highest percentage of the absentee ballot requests this time has come from several South County communities, said Dick Lewis of Newport Beach, who analyzes statistical data for political campaigns.

In Laguna Hills, for instance, 13,581 voters, or more than 30% of all registered voters in the community, had requested absentee ballots by Friday, Lewis said. Other South County communities, including Lake Forest, Laguna Beach and Laguna Niguel, also showed high percentages of voters asking to vote absentee.

Lewis said the large number of requests for early ballots in the area may be linked to support there for Measure S, which would repeal a 1994 ballot measure that allowed the county to make plans to develop a commercial airport at El Toro after the military closes the base. Measure S supporters tend to be those who oppose development of an airport at El Toro.

Political experts point out that even in presidential election years, primaries tend to bring out far fewer voters than general elections.

But combine that with such factors as a presidential race in which the major parties’ nominees are already decided and local races fail to spark much interest, and you have a recipe for low turnout, says political consultant Gary L. Hausdorfer.

“I wish I could tell you that voters are excited about something out there but right now, it’s really ho hum,” said Hausdorfer, a former mayor of San Juan Capistrano.

In addition, a number of voters in the county and elsewhere may have yet to grasp the fact that the California primary has been moved up this year and is taking place this week, three months earlier than before. Or they may be so accustomed to the traditional June primary date that they have only now begun to focus on the races and issues on the ballot.

“A lot of people just don’t know that there’s an election going on, or they think there are two elections, with the local stuff now and the presidential primary still in June,” consultant Harvey Englander said.

Along with a decision on Measure S, voters Tuesday will pick Republican, Democratic and third-party candidates in a variety of congressional, legislative and party central committee races. They also will cast ballots in a number of nonpartisan contests, including races for two county supervisors’ seats, a majority of the seats on the county Board of Education, and various judicial and municipal races.

These are the major contests and issues:

* Presidential preference votes for party nominees to run in the November election. With California’s vote coming near the end of the primary season, however, both major party candidates--President Clinton for the Democrats and U.S. Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas for the Republicans--are already assured of nomination.

* Several congressional races. Most Republican incumbents and their Democratic challengers are running uncontested in the primary. But U.S. Rep. Robert K. Dornan (R-Garden Grove) faces two challengers in his 46th District race, and four Democrats are battling it out in the same district for the right to run in November. U.S. Rep. Jay C. Kim (R-Diamond Bar) in the 41st District is the only other local congressman to face opposition in the primary, with one Republican challenger.

* Two state Senate races. In the 35th District, two Republicans, incumbent Ross Johnson and challenger Gil Ferguson, are waging a political grudge match, with Democratic and Natural Law Party candidates running unopposed in the same district. In the 33rd district, incumbent John R. Lewis is running unopposed, as is his Democratic opponent.

* Seven Assembly races. In the 67th, Baugh faces two challengers in the Republican primary, and incumbent Marilyn C. Brewer (R-Irvine) has two Republican opponents in her 70th District. Five Republicans are vying in the 71st District for the seat being vacated by Assemblyman Mickey Conroy (R-Orange), and incumbent Bill Morrow (R-Oceanside) faces one opponent in the Republican primary in the 73rd District. Democrats and third-party candidates are running unopposed in each district.

* Two county supervisor races. With the announcement by longtime Supervisor Roger R. Stanton that he will retire from the 1st District, three Republican officials from three of the county’s major cities threw their hats into the ring, along with one Democrat and one Libertarian. In the 3rd District race, eight candidates, including Assemblyman Conroy, are running for the seat being vacated by appointed Supervisor Don Saltarelli.

* Measure S, which would repeal Measure A, a ballot initiative that squeaked by at the polls in 1994 and allowed the county to make plans to develop a commercial airport at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station.

* Measures T and U, which both involve the enactment of a county charter, a set of laws individually tailored to Orange County. Measure T asks voters to approve a charter drafted by a county panel of elected officials, business leaders and others; Measure U asks the electorate to decide whether to allow the county to expand the Board of Supervisors from five to nine members.