Dull Ballot Blamed for Record Low Vote

In the wake of the most dismal primary turnout in California history, state officials cast around for an answer and quickly found one: There was not a lot on the ballot to attract any but the most dedicated voters.

Secretary of State Bill Jones, in a tentative calculation, set Tuesday’s turnout at 40%, roughly three points below the previous low recorded in 1940. And that low occurred at a time when the state held its presidential primary separate from its state primary, so voters did not have other issues on the ballot to lure them.

Jones, whose assessment was shared by other state officials, said the absence of a competitive race at the top of the ticket accounted for much of the low turnout.

Not only were the Democratic and Republican presidential contests decided before Tuesday’s primary, but for the first time since 1984, there was no gubernatorial or U.S. Senate race on the primary ballot.

“There’s no question that--notwithstanding the measures on the ballot--there is no substitute for a hotly contested statewide campaign to attract voters,” Jones said in an interview.

In Los Angeles County, where the 34% turnout also was a record low, Registrar-Recorder Conny Mc Cormack shared Jones’ sentiments. A core of voters, she said, turn out for every election and another 25% to 30% only turn out for presidential general elections.

“The group in between would like to have something more exciting,” she said. “That’s what it boils down to--the electorate wasn’t electrified.”

Jones also blamed part of the turnout woes on the timing of the state’s primary, which was moved from early June to late March this year in an ultimately futile attempt to gain prominence in the delegate selection process.

“That caught some people unaware,” said Jones, who supported the early primary bill when he was in the Legislature.

The father of the early primary, state Sen. Jim Costa of Fresno, disagreed with Jones’ latter assertion, laying all the blame on the lack of an exciting top-of-the-ticket race.

“I don’t think voter participation would have been much better had the primary been held in June,” Costa, who fought for 15 years to move the primary forward, said in a statement released by his office.

Costa reiterated his plan to propose an even earlier primary for 2000--to the first Tuesday in March. That was Costa’s original target date for this year, but he was forced to compromise on March 26 by lawmakers concerned that the earlier date would harm the chances of poorer presidential candidates who could ill-afford television advertising in California.

Had Costa’s initial plan been in effect this year, the state would have voted at the height of the Republican contest as Sen. Bob Dole was fighting for his political life after placing second in New Hampshire to his most serious challenger, former commentator Patrick J. Buchanan.

“Had we held our primary on the first Tuesday in March, as I originally proposed to do, California’s voters would have chosen from a full and active field of Republican candidates,” Costa said. “We also would have been decisive in choosing the front-runner rather than allowing New York and some minor states that power.”

Under terms of the 1993 early primary bill, the timing of the next presidential primary will revert to June unless the Legislature and governor approve another date.

Despite their disagreement on the impact of the early primary, both Republican Jones and Democrat Costa agreed that the ultimate solution for oft-overlooked states such as California would be a system of regional presidential primaries.

Costa’s proposal would cluster the primaries into five regional days, with states divided into Northeast, South, Midwest, Rockies and Far West areas. Each would be three to four weeks apart, giving the candidates more time to get acquainted with voters in the regions--and get voters acquainted with them.

The dates would be rotated each year so that no one area of the country has a perpetual advantage.

Jones is working on a similar proposal in concert with other secretaries of state. A specific recommendation is scheduled to be unveiled in August, he said.

State officials are not the only ones concerned about the impact of the compressed primary schedule. Republican National Chairman Haley Barbour has convened a task force to investigate the impact. It is to issue a report in June.

“I am concerned that our nominating process has become so compressed that it does not serve our party or its candidates very well,” Barbour said recently.

Symbolic of the unintended impact of the compressed schedule is the dilemma now faced by Dole. He clinched the primaries early, but at an exacting financial cost. Dole has little money and a lot of time to spend it--until August, when the GOP’s convention occurs and the nominee is given access to federal general election funds.

Although Tuesday’s dismal turnout numbers were difficult to ignore, Jones argued that they may not be as bad as they seem. Since 1978, he said, election officials have been unable to strip from the rolls voters they believe to have moved or died. Those voters remain on the rolls as “deadwood” and their presence pushes down the turnout percentage.

Jones believes that the deadwood accounts for 10% of the voter registration pool, meaning that Tuesday night’s real numbers may have approached 45%. Not great, but not a record low either.

The new federal registration law--known as “motor voter” because it allows registration changes at DMV offices--should cut down the deadwood because it gives voters an easy way to update their addresses, he said.

A computerized statewide voter file, due to start next year, also will allow officials to spot voters registered in more than one location. When those names are pared down, the ratio of turnout to registered voters will go up, he said.

As for the next state election, Jones predicts that about 80% of the voters will turn out in November, which would be higher than the 1988 turnout of 72.8% and the 1992 turnout of 75%.

Jones, who aired public service announcements this spring asking voters to turn out at the polls--and who challenged them Friday to overrun his 42% turnout estimate--said he will soon begin in earnest to court those less inclined to vote in November.

“We’re starting early with a drumbeat out there,” he said. “If there is going to be a turnout close to 80%, we want to find that 20% and really go after them.”

There was one sign that voters will embrace methods of voting that are easier than the traditional visit to the polling place. Continuing a long trend, the percentage of Californians filing absentee ballots seemed to have increased Tuesday, Jones said.

No firm figures are available because absentee ballots are still being counted. Recently, absentees have accounted for up to 24% of the votes tallied on election day.

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Voter Turnout: Record Low

The percentage of registered voters casting ballots in California primaries has dropped sharply in recent elections. Tuesday set a record low for a presidential primary since the current system began in 1944.

Tuesday’s state turnout: 40%*

L.A. County turnout: 34.4%**

Previous statewide lows:

1992: 47.5%

1988: 48.2%

1984: 48.7%

1948: 54.8%

Statewide high (1976): 72.6%

* 38.5% of the state’s voters went to the polls Tuesday. Absentee ballots still being counted are expected to add 1.5%.

** Unofficial

Source: California secretary of state